AAM ADMI PARTY VICTORY IN DELHI, FEB 2015

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The victory of the AAP in the recently concluded polls came as a complete shock to many of us. While the victory of the AAP was predicted the scale of the victory was unprecedented to say the least. The BJP had won all 7 Lok Sabha seats in the May 2014 General Election with a vote share of 37.5%. There has been a slight fall in the vote share  but the BJP won only 3 seats leaving 67 seats to the AAP. What explains this debacle?

1 It is now clear that the projection of Kiran Bedi as the Chief Ministerial candidate mid way through the polls was a flawed strategy and doubly so because that move was not welcomed by the grass root workers of the party. Her high handed conduct alienated party workers and the net result she lost the Krishna Nagar seat, a safe constituency of the BJP.

2 The BJP went into the elections without a Manifesto and that meant that the people of Delhi did not know what to expect from the Party. The Vision Document released was largely a symbolic statement huge on rhetoric but short on specifics. Now in retrospect that was  a factor.

3 The BJP was on a roll winning state after state and had become used to the habit of winning and assumed that Delhi would be a piece of cake. The AAP has built a good net work of supporters in different localities and had the city well covered. A committed band of volunteers worked night and day to make the victory possible. The AAP was able to tap the misguided idealism of the youth who believe that the AAP brand of politics will augur change in India.

4 The BJP under the State President Shri Satish Upadhya was handicapped by the lack of support from the top duo of the Party, Modi and Shah. Satish Upadhya himself was denied a ticket to fight the Polls while defectors like Krishna Tirath were given tickets. The ticket distribution was faulty and there were far too many para troopers wafting from above queering the pitch.

5 The perceived "negative campaign" of the BJP against the much vaunted financial and ethical probity of the AAP is also touted as a reason. The fact is that the AAP is guilty of using shady and dubious finances during the campaign but turned its own misdeeds against the BJP. The AAP is very good at turning all criticism against its conduct as a trial between the forces of good and the forces of evil a kind of eschatology which may lead to short term gains but not long lasting results.

6 The BJP has lost and like a mature political party has started introspecting. The first clear indication of change is the reluctance to enter the dirty cess  pool of Bihar politics. The BPJ will  learn its lessons and get its house in order before the Bihar polls later this year.

Barack Obama in India: Republic Day, Nuclear Deal and Indo-US Relations

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The Republic Day 2015 has quite a few firsts to its credit. For the first time in 66 years a serving US President was the Chief Guest at this important public event. And for the first time too significant political and economic agreements were signed, particularly the agreement on Civil Nuclear Deal. Let us put all this in perspective. A year ago, no one in India would have deemed it possible for a US President to be the Chief Guest on the occasion of the Republic Day. The commentators here have simplified the whole issue into one of "chemistry" between the two leaders. Nothing can be more wrong than this. USA has finally realized that India has changed and it is no longer possible to ignore India. The fact that USA was used to equating Indian concerns with Pakistan's sensitivities was the crux of the whole relationship, India was usually hyphenated with Pakistan. For the first time the joint statement issued after the talks made an unequivocal commitment to end terrorism and in the usual diplomatic parlance took a firm step towards ensuring that the 26/11 suspects are brought to book. I think this shift in US policy in the most important outcome of the visit.

The Civil Nuclear deal between India and USA was signed sis years back and there was little progress on the issue because of the "liability" clause in the Act passed by the Indian Parliament. The legality of the liability clause can be debated but the fact is that the BJP insisted that the clause which makes the supplier and not the operators of the power plants liable for the cost of any accident. The US power industry was naturally apprehensive about this clause and Modi was able to talk the US President into using his executive powers to iron out the differences. I think this is again a huge shift in US position. The fact that a Democrat has been able to muster the political will to make a huge shift in India's favor is a sign that Indo-US Relations are improving. I am personally in favor of a more even handed approach so that the Chinese Government does not get too highly perturbed over the growing ties between the two countries. However, the deal was struck within 7 months of Modi coming to power and this goes to show that in the domain of  foreign policy Narendar Modi has rare grit and talent.

The other important takeaway from the visit of Barack Obama is the US endorsement of the "Make in India" campaign launched by Narendar Modi. The long and dreary years of Congress rule staring with Jawaharlal Nehru saw India adopting a model of development which was based on the importation of technology in the knocked down version and the factories reassembled in India. The Ambassador car is a good example of this. Reassembly of kits, manufacturing on the basis of expired patents or process innovation were the hall marks of Indian industrialization. And this charade was called "thrust toward self sufficiency". Rightly has India rejected this model of development and Modi in his Make in India Campaign seeks transfer of technology, partnership and skill development all of which were absent in the Nehruvian model. The Make in India campaign  figured prominently in the Davos Meet.

The recent comments in China in which the Obama visit was sought to be downplayed has to be viewed seriously. China has very perceptively understood that there is a major shift in the very principles of Indian foreign policy. I am sure that Narendar Modi during his forthcoming visit to China will reassure  China that Indo-US relations are not directed at China and so far Narendar Modi has sent out all the right messages.

The Republic Day began with Narendar Modi paying tribute to the Indian Army at India Gate which was built by the British to honour the war dead of India in the Great War, 1914-18. 

Manohar Parikker and the "Deep Assets": How I K Gujral compromised India's security

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The Defence Minister of India, Shri Manohar Parriker made a statement recently in which he alluded to "deep assets" which had been built up over 20 or so years which had been compromised. The Congress Party went to town condemning this statement and even accused the Hon'ble Minster of being irresponsible. The statement has to be viewed in the context of the recent interception on the high seas of a boat which has been identified as a boat whose mission was to deliver a consignment of arms and explosives to a module of the Indian Mujahideen in Gujarat. The boat was intercepted as the radio exchanges were monitored over a period of 2 to 3 days and when confronted by the Coast Guard, the boat and its crew chose to detonate explosives and destroy the boat, cargo and the men on board. It is clear from the intercepts that nearly 50 lakhs were being paid to each of the men on board and this certainly makes it a high risk venture. It is against this background that Manohar Parikker made his forthright remarks.

Unlike USA, Israel or even Pakistan India has not been able to create an efficient Intelligence Agency. The recent disclosures made by R K Yadava in his Mission R&W make shocking reading: we have as R K Yadava  points out an intelligence agency which is badly organized, working at cross purposes with other agencies like the IB and worse full of men who are eager to be recruited as double agents. Worse nearly 6 men have defected to USA and India has not been able to bring them to book. When the country's leading Intelligence Agency is facing a crisis of this magnitude, the statement by the Defence Minister has to be taken seriously. There is no scope for bravado.

When I K Gujral became the Prime Minster after the dismissal of Deve Gowda, the new Prime Minster unleashed  volley of measures which virtually disbanded the operational capability of the R&W in Pakistan. He wrongly believed, perhaps because he was born in Pakistan, that it would be possible to have peace with Pakistan. With this false ideological and emotional motive, Gujral systematically degraded Indian intelligence assets in Pakistan. A top secret unit called CITX was disbanded and all the operatives recalled to India. India lost its ability to monitor the movement of military units and the deployment of troops. It had even penetrated the middle level of the Pakistani military establishment when Inder Kumar Gujral brought the whole process down.

As irony would have it I K Gural was saved from assassination by the very R&AW that he chose to attack.

What Parikker has said is true and there is no point in making a political issue of it.

Kiran Bedi and the Delhi Assembly Polls, 2015

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Once again the same questions and again loud, incoherent noises passing off as political wisdom. The BJP inducted Dr Kiran Bedi into the party and is projecting her as the Chief Ministerial face of the campaign for the Delhi Assemble polls scheduled for February 2015. The BJP has lost its advantage in terms of the Modi factor and has therefore "parachuted" Kiran Bedi screamed Arvind Khejriwal. Not to be outdone, the Congress leader Ajay Maken, yes the same Ajay Maken from Hans Raj about whom the dynastic fascist leader, Mani Shankar Ayer said some unpleasant things a few years back, declared that there is dearth of local leadership in the Delhi unit of the BJP. Therefore both the AAP and the Congress are reading mixed political signals in this new development. Added to the motives attributed to the induction of Kiran Bedi is the fading halo around Narendar Modi which according the APPtards has alarmed the Party. Let us see the validity of these arguments.

Dr Kiran Bedi is a prize catch as she is a well known crusader against Corruption and has shared the limelight along with Anna Hazare and his acolyte, Arvind Khejriwal. Since APP will again try to rake up the Lokpal Bill and the response of the BJP to the promise to pass a strong Lok Pal Bill, it makes sense to have the mascot of the anti Corruption movement to confront Khejriwal. None of the other leaders from Delhi match up to the record and stature of Kiran Bedi. Dr Harsh Vardhan would have been ideal, but for some strange reason he is in the dog house for the moment. Satish Upadhya cannot take on Arvind Khejriwal one on one and the BJP leadership has rightly understood this. I must add that even without Kiral Bedi, the BJP could still sweep the polls in Delhi, but there is a definite edge to the BJP Campaign now. Second, Delhi has a large Sikh population which will not vote for the Congress given its abysmal record in 1984 and Kiran Bedi being a Sikh will certainly help bring some of the votes now that the alliance with the Akali Dal is getting unstuck. Lastly, the administrative experience of Kiran Bedi cannot match anyone of her rivals. There is a strong undercurrent of support for Kiran Bedi even in the Juggi Jonpuri colonies due to her track record of service through the NGO she heads.

Now the results as I see it. Before the induction of Bedi. BJP would on its own have won around 35 to 38 seats. Now it will cross 40 though it will not reACH 49 SEATS IT ONCE HELD IN THE FIRST ASSEMBLY. Therefore Amit Shah and the BJP central leadership have pulled a coup by bringing in Kiran Bedi.

Je suis Charlie Hebdo: The Indiscreet charms of Islamic Terrorism

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The attack on the editorial offices of Charlie Hebdo the satirical magazine which won international notoriety for publishing offensive cartoons pertaining to Mohammad, the founder of Islam. Two or three heavily armed men stormed into the building by forcing the woman at the gate to enter the access code of the high security building and fired 37 rounds of ammunition from Ak 47 rifles before making their escape they shot dead a critically injured policeman. That the attack was well planned and meticulously  executed can be gleaned from the flawless getaway, escape from the scene into the woods surrounding the Parisian countryside. The French President, Francois Hollande declared that the killers would be hunted down and that the attack on the journalists was an attack on French Laws which guaranteed "freedom of expression". The French, American and Western media have framed  the attack in terms of the opposition between the liberal West which has the civilized approach to life and liberty and the barbaric totalitarian jihadists who  kill in the name of religion. This way of framing the issue privileges the superiority of the West which is allegedly governed by "laws" and not "men".

Charlie Hebdo was known all over the world for its irreverence and indeed hostile caricature of non White/ Western cultures, religions and  personalities. It may be pointed out that when one of the early satirical magazine, a predecessor of the contemporary, Charlie Hebdo, published a spoof on Charles de Gaulle way back in 1970, it was banned and all copies of the magazine forfeited and destroyed. It is therefore clear that the French claim that they respect Freedom of expression rings hollow. As long as the target of attack is not European or White then it is OK. This seems to the limits set to freedom of expression in France. Can the right to offend be subsumed under the right to freedom of expression.

The western world has seen the disenchantment of the sacred and in most parts of the world people do regard certain personalities, beliefs and symbols sacred and beyond ridicule. Unfortunately in India where political discourse is derivative and based on the pretentions of the western world there is a tendency to equate the freedom of expression with the right to offend. Nothing can be more disingenuous than this argument. In the west only political and national symbols command allegiance of the people. In India we have a whole menagerie of animals, hosts of symbols, a horde of personalities all of which clamour for attention and respect and notional symbols of a recent transition to nationhood are at best second or third tier allegiances. Hence, there is no use of equating the freedom of expression with the right to offend. Reasonable freedom can exist only within the limits of mutual respect and the attack on Charlie Hebdo  only demonstrates that the boundary between freedom and respect has been irrevocably broken or breached.

There is a lesson in this tragedy for France. Even since Nicholas Sarkozy became the President of France it has followed a policy of intervention in the Islamic countries and in this there is a pattern of continuity between what was happening under the rights regime and the present pseudo socialist one. The attack on Libya, Tunisia and the provocations in Syria all anger the Islamic societies and added to that is the cultural arrogance of caricature.

2014 in India : A Retrospect

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2014 will be remembered as a year in which India reinvented itself. The year began under a spell of gloom as the Congress regime was floundering under charges of corruption, dynastic fascism and political instability. The involvement of Robert Vadra in a series of land scams in states such as Haryana and Rajasthan only showed that even the First Family of the Congress was deeply implicated in corruption. The Congress could not mount an effective answer to the charges and resorted to the usual game of promoting identity politics and raising the bogey of communalism, an undefined and inherently self contradictory concept. Rahul Gandhi tried to lead the Congress counter charge, but the people of India have moved well beyond the narrow limits of dynastic politics.

Enter Narendar Modi. As Chief MInister of Gujarat he performed well that he was repeatedly elected with higher margins than the the previous occasion. He personally led the NDA campaign in the Parliamentary Election of May 2014 and by addressing thousands of rallies all across the length and breadth of India he drove home the message that India can hope for a better and a more secure future provided it abjured dynastic rule and its inherent corruption. He got a  fantastic mandate from the country and formed the Government.

In the six months that Modi has been in power, there has not been any dramatic new development but incremental steps have been taken. His "Make in India" campaign has certainly stimulated investment in the industrial sector and though the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India,  publically criticized this policy, the fact is that industrial growth has picked up. The price rise has been checked and along with price rise we also find the Government addressing the issue of trimming the ever burgeoning subsidies that bedevil the social sector. The Direct Cash Transfer scheme brought in by the previous regime is being streamlined and strengthened. The various Rural Employment guarantee schemes have spawned monumental corruption and the Modi Government is taking steps to ensure that the 100 days employment goes only to the really poor and needy.

The mission to Mars has put India in the big league of Space powers and the successful launch of the GSLV rocket is a huge step in the direction of developing the indigenous cryogenic engine. Apart from these the interlinking of rivers will be another huge task along with the modernization of the Railways by the involvement of Chinese technology and capital. All in all there are positives all around.

The liberal press has been flagging the issue of the religious conversion of Home Coming, Ghar Vapsi as it is called. Narendar Modi has reined in the hot heads in his party and the issue has dies a natural death. He refused to issue a statement in Parliament on the issue, but quietly and effectively dealt with the  controversy. The people of India have begun to look to the future with hope and an aspirational India has pinned its faith in Narendar Modi. 

The False protests on Conversions in India: An investigation

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The Indian Press is making a lot of noise on "Conversions" in parts of North India. Though the BJP has no role in the policy of bringing back to the Hindu faith those who were "converted" to other faiths over the course of the past several centuries, the Opposition, particularly the Congress has been disrupting the Parliament demanding a Statement from the Hon'ble Prime Minister. The Television Anchors are having a whale of a time, thundering about the "religious freedoms" enshrined in the document of political settlement issued in 1950. Let us examine the truth of what is happening.

Christianity emerged in Asia at a time when the Roman Empire was at the height of its power and strength. As St Augustine writes in his City of God the birth of the Saviour in a corner of the Roman Empire made the religion aspire for a universality that other religions, particularly the many gods and semi divine characters of the Roman public religion lacked. To be a Christian in the Roman world as Peter Brown and other historians have pointed out was to reject the political entity called the Roman Empire, the earthly city of Augustine and this life was only a transition to the Heavenly City where the Lord reigns forever. Constantine in 324 made Christianity the official religion and thereby a persecuted faith became the official religion. Conversion the context of Christianity was a change in world view, the understanding of life, nature and of course the relationship with God  who sent his Son as our Saviour. The Passion of Christ and His Resurrection on the third day is the proof of God's intervention in history. The acceptance of the three central premises of Christianity is Conversio, the transformation, the inward illumination.

In India, however, the " conversion" has usually been on the basis of identity. Lower castes were induced to "convert" by economic and other inducements and though there have been several instances of sincere and well thought out "conversions" most of the converts regarded Christianity as yet another caste of Hinduism. And in the blatant embrace of identity politics due to the numerical democracy which is followed in India, conversion only meant creation of minority pockets for electoral gain. There is nothing religious and spiritual about this. And the storm over conversion is misplaced and most of the converts do not understand even the elementary aspects of the faith they were induced to join for identity reasons.

The Church in India did little to help the entrants from the lower castes. In Tamil Nadu that I know well, high caste parish priests do not perform the sacraments for the lower casts particularly the "pariah" christians. In Villupuram the untouchable Christians have even complained that the Church graveyard is segregated. I am not giving a litany of complaints to undermine the faith. I am only saying that conversion is a personal and inward transformation and public embrace of Christianity does little to change the ground realities.

The controversy over "conversions" or Ghar Vapsi, Home Coming as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad calls it is totally misplaced and the agents of vote blocks alone are affected not the poor.