AMIT SHAH, POLITICS, PARTY AND BIOGRAPHY

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Amit Shah and the March of the BJP
Anirban Ganguly 1 Shiwanand Dwivedi
New Delhi: Bloomsbury, 2019.

Isac Deutcher, the famous biographer of Stalin and of Trotsky quotes the Florentine political thinker Niccolo Machiavelli who says "all armed phpphets conquer and unarmed prophets are vanquished". Biographers of politicians, diplomats and statesmen should remember this wise insight while writing biobraphies or rather manufacturing them. Anirban Ganguly, is a well known ideologue of the BJP and is the Director of the Syama Pradad Reseach Foundation, a well known think tank, in New Delhi. He is a good writer with an impressive educational credentials to his name.n However, Amit Shah and his political life though well documented, this book fails to address certain vital issues: the Goghra Incident, the Shorabbuddin Inncident and the encounter killings of Ishrat Jehan and her terrorist companions are just ignored. And this is a wrong rhetorical strategy. In fact as a biographer of Amit Shan, Anirban Ganguly should have discussed these three very imp[ortant events that in effect shaped Amit Shah's rise to the most poserful positionas the Home Minister of India. Before delving into the details of the biography I want to discuss precisely the issues evaded by Dr Ganguly.

Both the Hon'ble Prime Minister and the Hon'ble Home Minister of India have been accused by the Congress and other opposition parties of being complicit in the massacres that took place after the killing of the 59 passengers at Godhra station in Febuary 2002. Andy Marino in his biography of Narendra Modi which I have reviewed in this blog, has clearly brought out the facts that Narendra Modi was elected to the Gujarat Assemby just a day before the Godhra inncident and he was 200 kilometers away. Telephone records clearly show thst the then Chief Minister anf his MoS Home Department, noene other than the subject of this biography were on the phone directing the police to use maximum force to bring the riots under control. The Army was called out from Ahemdabad on the same day and this is in direct contrat to the conduct of Rajiv Gandhi who refused to call out the Army even as Congressmen went aon a killing spree after his mother died. Shoot at sight orders were given and more people were killed in the police firing than in the riots inself. Rampaging mobs were brought under control. The UPA Government tried to implicate Narendra Modi in the Gujarat Riots by saying that the state Governemnt did not take steps to control the situation. In fact, there were insinuations to the effect by Congressmen that Modi and Shah were directing the mobs and a discredited police officer, Sanjeev Bhat made statements to the effect that he was present in the room when such orders were given. This satement of Sanjeev Bhat was proved to be false on the basis of his own mobile phone data which showed his presence elsewhere. Based on such propaganda the Supreme Court ordered a Special Investigating Team and the SIT after interogationg both Modi and Shah gave a clean chit. In other words, exonerated both of any involvement in the post Godhra riots. This allegation was used both by the Congress party and Pakistan to demonixde Modi leading to the denial of US visa for nearly a decade. These facts are important and Anirban Ganguly has erred by ignoring them.

Amit Shah was the Minister of State for the Home Department and reported directly to the Chief Minister. Amit Shah hailed from a rich Gujarati business family and was educated in a traditional way and this explains both the analytical skill and the vigour of his public persona. Remarkably, Amit Shah was externed from Gujarat on the orders of the High Court and this turned out to be a blessing in disguise. The killing of Shorabbuddin, a criminal who was into extortion and ransom from rich marble traders from Rajastan and Gujarat was wanrted for henious crimes in 9 states of India and he was arrested by the Andhra Pradesh police and was taken to Ahmedabad. His killing seems to have been a fall out of rivalries with other extortionist gangs and Vanjara, the Director General of Police was given the goahead for the encounter. Amit Shan was in no way involved in the execution style killing of Kousar Bi who was a witness to the killing of Shorabbudin and the telephonic conversations produced in court clearly show that the context of the exchange was limited to Shorabbudin, a criminal wanted in 9 states. The then UPA regime wanted to foist the case of wilful murder on Amit Shah by arguing that the encounter in which Ishrat Jehan was killed was a "fake encouter" and the three men and the girl ws killed in cold blood. This false allegation was mounted by suppressing two vital pieces of information. First, the Indian IB itself provided an affadavit stating that Ishrat and her companions were LeT terrorits. Second, David Coleman Headley in his custodial interrogation had stated clearly that Ishrat was given training in becoming a suicide bomber. The lengths to which the Congress under Sonia, Chidambaram and Shinde went to hide these facts and proscecute Amit Shah suggets that they were part of the conspiracy to carry out an assasination.

All these controversies swirling around Amit Shah led his to be arrested and he spent four months in Sabarmathi Jail before he was ordered out of Gujarat. These events shaped the political future of Amit Shah and in a way the rst of the country. Shah took up residence in Delhi and started planning for the 2014 General Election. His reorganization of the Party as the National Secretary was the turning point in the political fortunes of the BJP. While Narendra Modi is undoubtedly the tallest and the best Prime Minister India has had, ever, Amit Shah's role as the strategist cannot be gain said. Amit Shah made the BJP into a well oiled electoral machine and sought to involve people from the level of the booth right up to the Central Committee of the Party. He may not know, but Amit Shah took a leaf straight out of Lenin's advice to his parttment on the eve of the October Revolution of 1919. Organize the party at the level of the soviets. Another every important contibution of Amit Shah lay in collecting the documents relating to the Pary and making it availble on public domain. The BJP e Library is one of the finest and no political party can boast of such a fine line up of reseach and scholarly material. And Amit Shan was one of the first to understand the importance of "Big Data" in planning for the National Elections. BJP has one of the most sohisticated data cntres in which GIS enabled data for all the main Lok Sabha constituencies is available at the click of a mouse. The creation of this data base was due to the concerted efforts of computer savvy men and women who worked as volunteers for years on end.

Amit Shah is now the Hom,e Minister. He won from the Gandhinagar seat. What will be his main thrust. He will be ruthless in the pursuit of Indian polical objective and hence he will be in Machivalli's sense a prophet armed. He will be tough on naxalite violence and will not hesitate to use his immense political capital to strengthen the BJP in parts of India where it is weak. As far as terrorist viloence is concerned, there will be tough measures without too much though for collateral damage. Being honest to the core, Amit Shan can afford to be ruthless. And India demands ruthless action in Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

The book under review makes good reading. But it leaves the reader unsatisfied as important issues are ignored. I reccomend this book.

BJP VIctory in Uttar Pradesh: Implications for 2019

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The BJP sweep in Uttar Pradesh did not come as a surprise to this blogger as he had predicted a tally of 300 seats. In reality, the BJP got well over this number and we have to ask some hard questions which have serious implications for the General Elections of 2019.

THe first question is: Did demonetization play a positive role in galvanizing the poorer sections of society in favour of the BJP. The conventional wisdom emanating from the wooly leftist commentators was that demonetization to prove a disaster and voters would register their protest in the polling booths. This did not happen primarily because the political messaging that accompanied the move was clear: the policy was aimed at unearthing black money and was meant to keep the pledge of rooting out corruption and hoards of hoarded wealth. The Congress and the BSP the most vocal critics of the MOdi initiative have had to bite the dust because they did not understand the baci purpose of the policy and its political implications. Even the small trader and daily wage worker soon adjusted to the new reality of a cashless or less cash economy and there was no major social unrest following the demonetization initiative. At the political level it shifted the focus of politics away from issues of identity to those of class, and employment along with livelihood.

The demonetization policy was effective in breaking the stranglehold of caste and power brokers over the electorate. Even in Muslim majority areas the Party has done extremely well. One obvious and a clear possibility is the Muslim women have voted in favor of the BJP given the stand taken by the party on the contentious triple talaq issue. But this alone does not explain the fact that even in predominantly Muslim areas like Deaband which has nearly 70% Muslim electorate, the bJP quite easily won the seat. Here I postulate a hypothesis that the younger Muslim voters are increasingly getting alienated from the sort of divisive politics that the traditional parties practice in the name of "secularism". Tokenism at best and condescension at worst is the main feature of Indian secularism. Modi's message, Sab Ke Saath, Sab ka Vikas is not a mere statement of intent. It is now emerging as a new contract between State and Civil Society.

In 2019, the BJP will be able to do well. However by that time, the state Government may have been in power for more than 2 years and hence the strong winds of anti incumbency will be felt. I suggest, though the BJP hot heads may disagree, that the present mandate is not for identity based issues like the Ram Mandir and BJP must resist playing identity politics on the issue except play the occasional tune to the die hard mandir addicts. The social coalition consisting of Brahmins, Rajputs, Trading castes and sections of the OBC and non Jatav SCs is a fragile and rather short sighted. It would be best not to put total faith in the sustainability of this coalition and continue to build up support.

An interesting feature in these Elections has been the substantial increase in the vote share of the BJP. Even in Goa where BJP got less seats than the COngress, the Party has more share of the votes polled and the same in Manipur. Uttarakhand and Punjab did not come as a surprise to anyone and I am sure that the BJP was expecting a poor show. Probably the showing of the AAP may have come as a surprise.

All in all, if this trend continues the BJP will cross 305 to 320 seats in the Lok Sabha Elections of 2019.

The Poll Results in Maharashtra and Haryana: Implications for the Future

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It appears that the combination of Narendar Modi and Amit Shah will indeed succeed in making India, a Congress Mukth Bharath--India free of the Congress. In Maharashtra the BJP won 123 seats on its own and in Haryana it won 47. In both these states the BJP has been able to humble the dominant regional political party which played the identity card--Siva Sena in Maharashtra and the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana. The support garnered by the BJP cut across the traditional fault lines of Indian polity--backward castes, tribal communities and Scheduled Castes have all voted for the BJP making it the most inclusive political force in the country. Further, the dynastic components of the polity like the Thackeray family in Maharashtra and the Cahutalas in Haryana stand humbled if not eliminated and this is a trend that began in the 2014 May Parliamentary Elections which saw the emergence of the BJP as a truly National force. Identity politics has resulted in the fragmentation of the political space and the resultant Governments were plagued with corruption and crime as what India witnessed during the 10 years of Congress led UPA rule.

In Maharashtra the BJP reluctantly broke itt alliance with the regional party, Siva Sena, over the issue of seat sharing. Surprisingly the Shiv Sena was unwilling  to concede just 3 extra seats over which the two parties parted company. Even though the Siva Sena put put candidates against the BJP in all the traditional regions of Maharashtra, Vidhraba, Mahratwada, and Konkan, the bJP was able to make dramatic inroads. The separation of Vidhraba from Maharrashtra is unlikely to be taken up in the near future as the Siva Sena will oppose any division of the state. The recent confusion over Telengana may lead to a rethink on the whole issue. Even though the Siva Sena used, as it is wont, extremely fiery and some would even say "gutter" language, a patch up is on the cards.

The Congress and its ally Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar was defeated because of the rampant corruption it indulged in. The Irrigation scandal in which the prime accused is Ajit Pawar, the nephew of the Maharatha strongman resulted in the defeat of the NCP though it has held on to its traditional strongholds of Baramati.

In Haryana, the INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala who is lodged in jail due to his involvement in the Teacher Recruitment  Scam won 20 seats. All the important leaders of the Party were defeated. Om Prakash Chautala himself came out of jail on bail to campaign, feigning medical grounds but the results showed that the people have no sympathy for corrupt politicians and this shows clearly that the Indian Electorate is changing. Jat identity politics made the BJP stitch a coalition of other backward castes including the dalits and has swept to power.

In Maharashtra the BJP faces a rather grim choice: it has to seek the support of the Siva Sena to form the Government and given the acrimony of the recent campaign it would be quite a task to repair the damage to the 25 year relationship. In a way the passing away of Gopinath Munde who would have been content to let the Siva Sena play the dominant partner inMaharashtra opened the door for the BJP's emergence as an important force.

The two are well and truly set to making India, Congress Mukth Bhrath.