Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe Niall Ferguson's Analysis of the COVID 19 Pandemic

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Niall Ferguson is provocative, prolific and perspicacious. Provocative because this book taken on the now popular ideologies of "systemic racism", "global justice" and "climate change". Unlike the journalists who find easy explanations in politics and personalities, the historian necessarily has to take a more nuanced position. As he has shown, Trump was not more responsible for the COVID pandemic than Bill Clinton was for the Rwandan Genocide or the War in the Balkans. He is a prolific writer as he and his team chum out books almost at an industrial rate and get it published to catch the latest headlines. And he is perspicacious as he has shown the strong lines of continuity between the present Pandemic and those in the past starting from the earliest ones known from historical sources and he finds a pattern. Governmental interventions in disasters are vital towards finding a solution, but the middle bureaucracy  can subvert the best laid plans of Presidents and Prime Ministers.

Those who come to this book with a background in History, as I do, will find this book rather inadequate. Many of the arguments were already made several decades back by William McNeil in his Plagues and People. And Of course, Alfred J Crossby in his Columbian Exchange has traversed this territory of pathogens and their impact on History. However the book is the first serious attempt at looking at the Global History of a Pandemic that is still reaping its macabre harvest the world over. While Ferguson rightly states that China was responsible for the Pandemic he avoids the question: Did China unleash a bio logical weapon against an unsuspecting world? Given the response to the outbreak in Wuhan, this question has a great deal of salience. Why did China suppress the human to human transmission and delay the confirmation of the deadly outbreak until it had spread to nearly 67 countries. The WHO which played an effective role under Gro Harlem Brundtland, a former Prime Minister of Norway, was rendered ineffective, indeed an accomplice in shielding China from international scrutiny. Dr Tederos was quite unconcerned about the responsibilities WHO had towards the World.

Niall Ferguson has provided a tour de force through all the major Epidemics and Disasters in History and he zeroes in on the 1918-19 Global Influenza Epidemic. This Pandemic which cost nearly 40 million lives was also a Corona virus which was effectively dealt with by a combination of medical intervention and sanitation without the use of Lockdown as strategy. The US Government under President Trump went in for total lockdown which was effective in bringing down infection rates but tanked both the economy and the political future of Donald Trump. 

An interesting feature of the book is the critique of the public health policies and measures adopted b different Governments. In UK the first instinct of Neil Ferguson (not to be confused with the author of this book) advocated herd immunity. Allow the virus a free run and hope that at the end of the dance people will be immune. From this ridiculous policy the team, New and Emerging Respiratory Threats Advisory Group  (NERVTAG). jumped to an alarming and obviously unrealistic daily rate of virus transmission. Like Generals fighting the last war, epidemiologists are busy preparing for the last Great Pandemic. The course of the pandemic has defied all theories, statistical extrapolations and models deployed by experts. 

Added to the noise of the experts was the cacophony in the Popular Press. Captive of the big Corporations like Google, Amazon, Twitter and FaceBook the Press took a negative stance e towards political  leaders of Democratic countries. For example FB prevented the use of its platform for contact tracing thereby helping to spread rather than contain the Pandemic. And mega tech companies, reluctant to alienate China as its Market was huge, branded Trump's China travel ban "racist" though they knew that the disease had traveled from Wuhan, China. Niall Ferguson rightly condemns the 'morality play" quality of COVID 19 reportage as though popular political leaders were responsible for the disease. Quoting from Washington Post, the author has demonstrated that the paper consistently downplayed the threat posed by the disease and  certainly shied away from asking searching questions about the role of China. Of course this has nothing to do with the fact that Jeff Bezos is both the owner of Amazon and Washington Post. And China is a huge market. In a happy eloquent phrase which will resonate with those who cherish human freedom, Ferguson writes, "the East India Companies of the internet have plundered enough data; they have caused enough famines of truth; and plagues of the mind". 

This is a book which is topical and timed to sell as the flavor of the season is COVID.

COVID 19 India's Response and World Issues

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The COVID 19 pandemic has not left India unaffected. We are under lockdown and days seem to stretch into inflinity. We cannot leave the House and so have not been blogging. Today my daughter helped me configure her old lap top and am back blogging after quite a while. I am a Historian, a Professor of History a Researcher and an Animal Rights'Activist. We need a curfew pass to move out and being a senior citizen I am given some relaxation in the number of curfew passes I am issued. I drive from the Campus to the town and get the stuff we need and return in the blazing sun,as the shops close by 1100.At least I have tonnes of books to read and have an interesting project to work on. Living through COVIID 19 has given me time to relect and this blog is on my two cents worth.

When the Pandemic began. i was more or less convinced that the virus was the result of an AmericanGerm Warfare experiment gone horribly wrong. Now I have changed my mind and believe that the Communist Regime in China have a lot of explanation to give to the International Community. Wuhan Wet Market which they blamed for the outbreak is not the primary source of the virus. It was probably the Wuhan Institute of Virology that was reponsible. It is too early to say if this was a deliberate attempt at disrupting the world economy or an accident in the lab. Whatever be the circumstances, China owes an expalnation and has to make a clean confession and International sanctions may be invoked to make the State comply. And the behaviour of China, in trying to make profit off the suffering of human beings all over the world is despicable even by Communist standards. India and Germany have changed the norms of Foreign Direct Investment to prevent hostile Chinese takeovers and China is threatening to take matters to the WTO. A bad move as China virtually dands isolated in the World today.

USA is devastated. Seeing the rising number of casulities which is reaching the 50,000 mark I cannot help feeling a tinge of sorrow at the stoicism of the American people. They are going through hell and they are bearing their immense suffering with great dignity. I dont want my words to be seen as patronizing or taken as a wise crack. I mean it. Did Trump err in calling it the Chinese virs. I dare to say NO. I am now convinced that the virus originated in China and the WHO has worked overtime to hide the involvement of China in this tragic Greek Opera that is unfolding before our very eyes. And the attention of the Trump Administration was distracted by the Impeachment Proceeding launched by the Democrtas precisely at the time when the US Administration was rlizing the gravity of th situaton and had imposed the travel ban.

India does not see a huge spike in COVID cases. The Government of India acted at the right time. A Nationwide Lockdown was imposed on March 25th even as the country saw less that hundred cases on that day. Under Lockdown which was imposed nder the  Infectious Disease and Epidemics Act, which was legislated in the nineteenth century, the Government can arrest people for breaking the curfew. Barring one particular identity group, all behaved the citizens behaved well. This brings to to the Tablighi Jamaat or Single ource Event as we refer euphemisticlly.

THe Tablighis, a group of orthodox Sunni muslims were found to have gathered in large numbers in Nizamuddin Area in New Delhi and violating the Social Distancing norms they hind in moques all over India thereby infecting and contaminating places which were free of the virus. The states of Maharashtra, Telengana and Tamil Nadu are the worst affected. I think the situation in West Bengal is also grim.

Unlike USA, India's strategy was different. It imposed Lockdown and undertook tracing and tracking of those exposed to the virus and strict quarantine measure are in place. An APP Arogya Sethu was rolled out which alerts smart phone usere of the possible Covid hot spots. It tracks using the GPS and blue tooth, This app has been effevtive and more than 70 million people have downloaded it. Though travel restrictions are in place, the country has not been seeing fatalities as what was witnessed in USA, Italy, Spin and  UK. The Nation must thank the Prime MInster for his pro active steps,

Every night as I watch Andrew Coumo, the Governor of New York speak on CNN I hear the words"flatten the curve". The basic mistake that USA dis was to address the problem from the wrong end. The models as indeed all models in such cases were wrong and predicted a situation that was both impossible and hellish. Had the US not depended on statistical models which are Bayseian in their basic architecture and relied more on prctical measures as were put in place after the 1918-19 Pandemic, the US would have fared better.