Narendra Modi, the BJP and the 2014 Elections: The Storm Ahead

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

As expected the BJP Parliamentary Board met this morning and declared Shri Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. The Congress party which reposes faith in dynastic fascism as its only political principle in all probability  rally around  Rahul Gandhi derisively called Amul Baby in India. It will be an unequal match as Tahul Gandhi does not have either the experience or the national stature to stand up to Narendra Modi and in the forthcoming election all seasoned political observers see a tectonic shift in favour of the NDA led by the BJP.

The issues that will dominate the Elections of 2014 are serious ones and some of the issues are listed below:

1 There has been unprecedented levels of corruption and mis governance during the 10 years of the UPA whose PM was the teflon coated Dr Man Mohan Singh. The disappearance of the files relating to the allocation of coal blocks in the coal gate scandal has put the spotlight on the Prime Minister. Indians are used to corruption and in our everyday lives have to deal with it at some level, but under the Congress the scale and magnitude of corruption has broken all limits and the common man in yearning for a change. Narendra Modi has the image of a clean and efficient politician and is not tainted by a singly scandal.

2 There has been a virtual melt down of the Indian economy. The growth rate has plunged to 3.5% and this is the lowest in nearly tywo decades. The Current Account Deficit is narly 7 % of the GDP and is increasing. The trade gap is widening and in spite of the fall in the value of the rupee exports are not picking up. The high rate of unemployment had made the youth restive and it is the young voter who is expected to vote en masse for Narendra Modi. The Congress has offered no explanation for the decline in the economy except blaming the policies of Pranab Mukherjee the former Finance Minister and now President of INdia. Corrective measure have not been taken for bringing the economy back on track. In fact the situation is getting worse with the inflationary pressure exerted by the rise in petrol and fuel.

3 The populist measures taken by the UPA under the influence of a bunch of civil society activists close to Mrs Sonia Gandhi has imposed an enormous strain on the economy and has made corruption a rural phenomenon. The Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme has spawned huge corruption and the Comptroller and Auditor General has drawn attention to the lapses in the Government schemes

4 The foreign policy scenario is not bright. India has declined before the eyes of the World. There was a time when the voice of India was heard. Today India is silent on all major issues confronting the world. This decline is due . bad statecraft and muddled priorities. The incursions of the Chinese Army have to be addressed in a bilateral forum through discussions. The News papers are full of alarming Reports of the presence of Chinese soldiers deep into Indian territory. I am sure this issue can be settled through dialogue, but the weak UPA Government lacks the credibility to undertake such a dialogue. In the case of Pakistan, India has been craven. Inspite of the fact that the Government of India being aware that Pakistani soldiers killed 5 Indian soldiers in a brutal manner, the UPA regime sought to pass the buck by saying that terrorists dressed in Pakistan Army uniform did this dastardly act. The UPA lost what little respect people had  after this display of cowardice.

Against the declining fortunes of the UPA, Narendra Modi has to craft a winning strategy. His personality and image alone will not see the NDA through because the UPA will throw the 2002 Riots in Gujarat against Modi in onder to garner the votes of the Muslims. This strategy will come unstuck in the big state of Uttar Pradesh, but may have some purchase in other parts. Though the Supreme Court of India has not found anything to prove the involvement of Modi in the riots, the 2002 Riots are still there in public perception. NDA must respond by bringing up the Sikh Massacre of 1984 when Indira Gandhi died. The factionalism within the BJP with the senior leader L K Advani sulking in the shadows after the announcement of the candidature of Hon'ble Narendra Modi may be unsettling in the short run.

The BJP has its work cut out for it and the sooner Narendra Modi establishes an organization which can translate his vision into a reality the bettor it would be.

WHEN IS A GOVERNMENT ILLEGITIMATE: L K ADVANI SPOKE FOR ALL OF US

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books Parliamentary Democracy is predicated upon a very delicate balance between public perception and the illusion of permanent power. Since the tenure of a President is fixed for a certain period of time by the Constitution, there cannot be too many question marks over the legitimacy of a President. This is not the case in a Parliamentary form of Government and more so in the case of India where the fist past the winning post system is in place. In the electoral battlefield, candidate resort to violence, intimidation,bribery, impersonation and other mal practices are employed in spite of the best efforts of the Election Commission. Ultimately candidates sit in the LOK SABHA with less than 15% of the valid votes polled. In the case of Mr P Chidambaram, the present Finance Minister of the Government of India, he was actually defeated and got the certificate of election by fraud and in all probability his election will be struck down. The legitimacy of the parliamentary process is already in doubt and so there is no harm in speaking of "illegitimacy" of the Government. In the Lok Sabha debate on the violence in Assam, Shri L K Advani a stems frosenior leader of the Opposition referred to the UPA-II as an "illegitimate government" and the sustained outrage of the Congress benches aided and instigated by Sonia Gandhi led to Advani withdrawing the remarks. While it was gracious of Shri L K Advani to withdraw the remarks, I would like to ask if his remarks were actually true and if there is truth in his remark why did he withdraw the remark. I think Shri L K Advani is making noises which may get his headlines but he is not helping in the gigantic task of getting rid of the two headed hydra--Sonia and Singh--who are ruling the country. The increase in the level of terrorism in India itself raises doubts the ability of the two headed hydra to govern. The ruthless Mumbai Attack of 26th November 2009 took place during the watch of the present government and India has made no progress in getting cooperation from Pakistan. Though Kasaab has been sentenced to death, a soft state like India is unlikely to have the political will to carry out the sentence. The Government has had no success in controlling domestic terrorism. Naxalite violence has only increased and CRPF soldiers are being killed by the dozens. In Dantewada incident alone 80 soldiers were killed. The main reason for the doubts on the legitimcy of the Government stems from the large scale corruption indulged in by the present regime. In the allocation of spectrun scandal, popularly known as the 2G scandal more than 8 to 10 billion US dollars were lost to the country and to make matters worse a senior minister Kapil Sibal even justified the loss saying that it was a zero loss to government.THis matter is pending before the Supreme Court of INdia. In the allocation of coal blocks for mining huge bribe were paid and the Comptroller and Auditor General of India has documented the loss to the exchequer. Then there are a host of smaller scams like the Adrash Scandal. The involvement of Congress politicians in serious crimes is another cause for concern. And the dynstic obsession of the Congress party which projects the higly inexperience and volatile Rahul Gandhi as the next Prime Minister of India raise question about the legitimacy of the regime in power. L K Advani was certainly right in condemning the regime as illegitimate.