India's General Election 2024 The Prospects of the BJP and strategies

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The bugle of elections has been sounded and the campaign to capture power has started. There is an increase of 11.5% in the strength of the Electorate and a significantly larger number of candidates are conrtesting, compared to the 2019 Elections. There are two broad allainces, the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP and the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance the I. N. D. I Alliance. Rahul Gandhi, though not the declared leader, is the public face of this motely crowd.

Let us start with the I. N. D, I Alliance. The grouping is riven with personalitiy clashes and strong anti incumbancy wave in the two major states ruled by components of the Alliance: West Bengal and Karnataka. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the NDA is mounting a serious challenge but both the DMK and the CPM have deep roots and so there is only limited hope of BJP gaining a strong posse of seats. I expect asround 6 to 12 seats for the NDA from both these states together. In Karnataka and in West Bengal the BJP is slated to do well. The campaign of Rahul Gandhi is proving to be a huge embarassment to his Alliance. His statement against Sakthi has not gone down well and he has not mastered the art of political rhetoric which even ordinary members of the BJP have total command over. The seats for the INDI Alliance will not increase and Congress numbers may even fall. Except Punjab where the APP will getr the majority of the seats, the INDI Alliance is on a stricky wicket everywhere else in the country.

What are the issues before the Electorate: Governance, Internal Security, Economy, Infrastructure and Employment. On all these issue, except employment the Government has performed well. Governance has remained  more or less corruption free and there are no major scandals, financial or otherwise, affecting the credibility of the BJP. The Electoral Bonds which the Congress has tried to portray as "Licensed Corruption" was introduced to check the role of unaccounted money in the electoral process. The very fact that the electoral bonds could be traced back to the original donor is proof of the good faith in which the Government acted. Unfortunately the Government of India has to contend with a unified Opposition and a hyperactive Judiciary which struck down the Electoral Bond Scheme. It will be reintroduced after the General Elections. And a major slew of reforms of the judiciary including the judges appointing judges system that is in vogue today will ne introduced. The CAA has finally been passed and except for some organized identity groups, there is hope that Citizenship will be rolled out to the minorities in Pakistan. There have been some tension with regard to Center-State Relations. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have refused to cooperate with the Centre on sensitive issues pertaining to transnational crime. I expect the next Government to define Law and Order which have been left by the Constitution to the Statesmore precisely. The Indian Economy has been growing at an average of 8% and the World Bank  and IMF expect this trend to continue. Unfortunately this is largely growth without employment as the only jobs available to the younger generation are in the gig economy. India has seen a phenomenal growth in terms of Infrastructure and the investment in Ports, Railways and Highways will continue. In fact the impressive economic growth figures of India comes from Infrastructural growth.

Given the track record of Governance, Internal Security and Economy I expect Narendra Modi to make a clean sweep in the forthcoming elections. I have not been wrong in my electoral prediction so far and I venture to state that the BJP will win between 334 to 354 seats. give or take a few. The 400+ that the leadership talks of is hype. Unless South India makes a complete U turn  in its politics, this number is not possible. And South India has outlawed miracles. 

All in all a BJP led Government seems probable.  Apart from the Electoral Bonds and the Arvind Khejriwal arrest and imprisonment the Government has not taken any major misstep. The Liquor Policy Scam in which Kavitha the daughter of K C  Rao, the former CM of Telengana and Manish Sisodia and of course now, the Chief Minister od Delhi figure as accused, is only fizz in a beer bottle. It will be impossible for the ED to prove the case in court and this makes me suspect that political motives are behind this strategy. If the Cabinet is guilty of making the decision why is the LT. Gov of Delhi who signed off on the policy not make part of the conspiracy.

India is facing serious challenges in the neighborhood. The tensions in West Asia are increasing and the war in Ukraine though is winding down is showing no sign of approaching peace. Tensions with China will continue as India maintains a strong and aggressive posture.

India's Experiment with Democracy: The Life of a Nation Through Its Elections: A Review

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

India's Experiment with Democracy: The Life of a Nation Through its Elections

S Y Quraishi, IAS (retd)

New Delhi: Harper Collins 2023

Shri S Y Quraishi I A S (retd) has written a hastily written book on Indian Elections in which all the talking points of George Soros and his Merry Men who scream about India being a flawed "democracy" in which "back sliding" of norms has become endemic are sprinkled in ample measure all through this badly written and sloppily edited book. We expect some quality from men who hold high Constitutional Office and I am sorely disappointed having perused the turgid pages hoping for insight and elucidation. And both were not forthcoming, unfortunately.

As the Chief Election Commissioner during the Man Mohan Singh regime, Shri S Y Quraishi for reasons that are quite obscure fails to highlight the two most important dangers faced by Indian Democracy: Corruption and Dynastic Politics. His tortured attempt to gloss over the conviction of Rahul Gandhi for his conviction in a criminal case of defamation shows bias in favor of the Congress and his insinuation that the case was instigated as vendetta makes one wonder about the quality of his judgement. He cites the Lily George judgement and is certainly aware of the consequences that stem from conviction. The purchase of criminals over Indian politics is hinted throughout the book but there is studied silence on Shahabuddin and Atiq Ahmed, the two most egregious instances of criminals masquerading as leaders. Giving more powers to the Election Commission of India to disqualify candidates is hardly a solution as this provision is likely to be used selectively on ideological grounds. Identity politics is reprehensible in whatever form it takes.

Apart from overweening bias, the book is flawed in that it takes a standard instrumental line when it comes to Democracy, Elections and Politics. The Indian Constitution does not mention Political Parties or their role in the affairs of the State and hence we can raise the question is the multi party democracy that flourishes in India alien to the letter and spirit of the Constitution. If political parties are not mentioned then it logically follows that defection cannot be regarded as an offence as the Constitution does not recognise the existence of political factions. This point is not addressed by Shri Quraishi though one of his predecessors Shri Navin Chawla thought it prudent to let the cat among the pigeons. Political Parties get legal status only through the enabling legislation, Representation of Peoples' Act. The founders of the Indian Constitution were perhaps aware of the ill of party democracy and hence avoided even according political parties constitutional recognition. 

The  Prime Minister has spoken of One Nation one Election as a solution to the constant election fever that grips the country. The Media has the distracting habit of reading election results as though state elections are referenda on the Central Government. This vital debate is not addressed except in a perfunctory casual manner. He rightly rejects NRI voting right but seems to bend towards allowing migrant voters the right to vote. Elections is India are in a federal context and the individual state must remain the locus of elections. On the Model Code of Conduct Shri Quraishi seems to think that giving it statutory powers will enable the Commission to be more effective. I think this will only lead to more litigation on the implementation of the code. 

Shri Quraishi seems to give far too much importance to Political Parties. May be for the Election Commission of India they remain its prime clients. However, political parties with a few honourable exceptions, have failed to maintain inter party democracy, failed to submit their election accounts to the Commission, failed to nominate candidates with good track record, and most have circumvented democracy by openly embracing dynastic fascism as the norm. Regional political parties are particularly prone to this tendency. And he has also failed to investigate the pernicious and corrosive practice of distributing money to the electorate. The Tirimangalam By election brought this before the Nation. And the author is discreetly silent on the huge sums of money seized during Elections. In Tamil Nadu, container lorries stuffed with currency notes were seized and till this day we do not know how the Election Commission of India disposed off the case. And the example of the Sivagangai Parliamentary Election result is still a lingering sore. Quraishi ignored all substantial issues dealing with money and crime in Indian elections. 

There is a great deal of repetition in the book. Passages are repeated verbatim and this only shows bad editing and poor writing and drafting. On page 218 and pg 222 we find the same sentence repeated dealing with corrupt practices. We find such instances throughout the book. It seems this hastily written book is designed to reinforce the George Soros and its affiliate Institute of Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) propaganda against India. India will remain a democracy in spite of the  poison emanating from white societies and their ideological partners and sepoys. 

Why should India and its former Election Commission have a  view on the elections in USA.  On pg 288 he write that President "Trump sought to cancel the 2020 election results an declare himself the victor". This is absolute nonsense. Trump sought to raise questions about the legal validity of the elections and nothing more. We do not expect a functionary of the Election Commission to accept uncritically the talking points from Washington Post and New York Times. His laboured effort to defend Muslim social practices as followed by Taliban in Afghanistan is not worth dealing with as a religion is judged not by what it preaches but what it practices. In any case that is an exercise in futility as far as the indigenous people of India are concerned.

This is a bad book. Written in a style that is full of North Block officialise and we are left with the wisdom that the Chief Election Commissioner ranks higher in the pecking order as seen in the Warrant of Precedence compared to a Principal Secretary. Hierarchy once again. 

The Electoral Prospects of the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The time has come to look back at the campaigns ans see where the Nation is heading towards in the forthcoming General Elections. The campaign  of the Congress centering around the dynastic mascot, Rahgul Gandhi, is surprisingly sharp and focused. The Assured Income scheme launched in the Manifesto is both innovative and attractive. By guaranteeing a minimum income of 72, 000 per family for a year as income support the Congress has created some ripples. Given the state of public journalism in India, the scheme has not attracted the kind of attention it deserves. The BJP brushed this scheme aside. However, the tax burden on the middle class will increase dramatically if this scheme is introduced and it will add to the inflationary woes. For the past 5 years India has seen 8% growth with around 3.5% Inflation. If the Congress comes to power Inflation will sky rocket and growth will plummet. What needs to be done is to work out the benefits already rolled out by the Modi Government to the people and make a comparative assessment.

Except for the one innovative policy measure, the dynastic fascists have run a highly divisive vituperative invective laden campaign. Modi was attacked in every possible manner. His Mother, Family, his personality were all viciously attacked to little effect. The more he was attacked the greater the popularity. Rahul even went to the extent of saying "Chowkidar Chor hai". The watchman is a thief, an attempted rebuke that was transformed into a splendid statement of approbation with people from all walks of life adding the word Cowkidar to their names. In the last General Elections Mani Shankar Ayer's jibe directed against Modi turned out to be a vote getter and this time if Modi is now set to trounce the Congress, the credit should go to Rahul and his meanly mouth jibe.

There is not a single allegation oc corruption against Modi. He has led, for the first time since Independent India, a Government that does not face a single charge. The Scams and Scandals of the Congress and its Allies have been the subject of numerous Inquires but given the state of the judiciary here in India, the prosecution has been tardy. Further, sections of the Judiciary seem to be playing footsie with the Congress as Chidambaram and his son havc secured bail 18 times already over the slew of cases they face. The entire Gandhi family is out on Bail facing serious fraud charges in the National Herald case. This case is one in which the entire property of the National Herald, a Congress Newspaper, was acquired by the first family of the Congress contrary to the rules and law presently in place.The eviction has been stayed by the Supreme Court. Yet another instance of the judiciary playing footsie with the Congress. The Higher Judiciary seems to be a partner in the UPA and it is fast losing the respect of the Nation

In spite of all these, the Congress and its allies are headed for a decisive defeat. Kamalnath, the Chief Minister of Madhya  Pradesh was caught in the Augusta Westland Scandal as some of the money got as kickbacks was recovered from his aides. The Pulwama Attack was sought to be politicized by Rahul and his associates. They wanted proof of the Attack implying that the Government was lying about the Balakot Air Strike. For the first time the Armed Forces became a factorin domestic political squabbles. And the Congress sought in vain to  turn the needle of suspicion on Modi and failed.

The North East will see a resurgent BJP and in Mamta's  Bengal the BJP has made significant inroads. Orissa will see a BJP victory in around 8 constituencies with a hung assembly and in nearby Andhra Pradesh the Jagan Mohan Reddy outfir is set to weep and BJP may win just 2 seats in AP. Tamil Nadu is always a difficult state to study as people show very erratic voting behaviour. BJP may win the Kanya Kumari seat, the Coimbatore seat and has a fighting chance in Ramanathapuram. We know that Kartok Chidambaram and Tirumavalavan will not taste electoral success.

At an all India level it would be safe to predict that Narendra Modi will form the next Government with the NDA getting around 315 seats.

"Rahutatva": Ideology and Political Discourse in India

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Rahul Gandhi, the fifth generation Crown Prince of the dynastic fascist political party the Congress is propounding a new political philosophy in India and we can call it Rahutatva or the Political Ideology of Rahul. Like any political ideology this too is pragmatic in that it seeks to  explain complex interplay of politics by emphasizing certain discrete elements for the sake of coherence and simplicity. As an ideological system Rahutatva pits itself against an agenda of inclusive and all round development or vikas by invoking identity, religion and through the systematic instigation of caste and other such atavistic elements. Rahutatva is reductionist in its approach because it empathizes form more than content, rhetoric rather than reality, and is a discursive formula for endless rehash of certain pet themes.  And Rahutatva is like all ideological systems immune to the basic test of verifiability or truth. In fact Rahutatava abhors truth and it is immune to criticism as mere pronouncement as in the case of any self contained ideological system, enough to validate it.

Since the entry of Rahul Gandhi into the political arena we have seen a series of statements that have unfortunately started framinf the political discourse. Unfortunately Rahutatva is never critiqued as a whole. Parts of it have already proven to be false but that does not invalidate the whole structure of discourse beause the target has now shifted. The introduction of GST, a difficult and politically dangerous move was undertaken by Narandar Modi as the country needed to shift to a tax regime that is more transparent and generates more revenue. The Central Government and the State Governments have both expressed satisfaction over revenue sharing and the prices have not increased as a consequence. However Rahutatva demands that GST be declared a failure and oppressive and even though revenue figures show proof to the contrary, the negative propaganda must circulate as opposition to GST has taken an ideological turn.

Similarly the Demonetization is now being demonized as a highly oppressive attack on the fiscal structure of the country. True there were some major glitches in the implementation. However, the fact that tax compliance has increased 4 times, shows that the shock adminstered has had the desired impact. Also the corporate raiders and carpetbaggers like Mallya, Nirav Modi and others were projected as the favored  corporates of Modi. The fact is all of them got their huge bank loans only during the time when the Congress was dominating the Government and there is documentary proof of the collusion of the then Finance Minister with these corporate raiders. And Modi has succeeded in bringing them to justice and the Insolvency Act has enabled successful prosecution of these  criminals. Rahutatva must deny facts and the reality and with the help of certain sections of the media generates a discourse which is disengaged from the ground reality. Perhaps Post Modernist disregard for truth is at work here.

The Rafale Aircraft deal is another good example of Rahutatva at work. The Supreme Court has given its verdict on this bill and has said that due diligence and process were followed. Rahutatva disregards the wisdom of the Supreme Court as it is not interested in facts that contradict the premise of the discourse. Politics demands that truth and reality be set aside. This attitude toward Politics is not just nihilistic. It is Fascist in that there is no engagement with raw empirical facts. Like Dr Goebbels, propaganda substitutes for argument and facts. The recent controversy over the visit of the Clown Prince of the Congress Party to Shri Manohar Pariker is a case in point. Pariker was a former Defence Minister and now the Chief Minister of Goa and is dangerously ill. Using a courtesy visit to inquire after the health of the ailing CM, Rahul Gandhi true to his basic adherence to Rahutatve spun this visit into the Rafale Controversy by declaring that Manohar Pariker has provided an expalnation to him that he had nothing to do with the deal. Manohar issues a strong letter of rebuttal in which he called out the lies uttered by the man who seems to be incapable of telling the truth even by accident/

I have give a few example of what I call Rahutatva: a discursive rhetorical strategy in which truth is dispensed with and propaganda is the subsitute for evidence and argument. This is the essence of Rahutatva and is fascism in action. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi defeats the vote of No Confidence: Some Implications for 2019

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

 There was never a moment of doubt that the Central Government headed by Narendra Modi would defeat the No Confidence Motion put forward by the Telugu Desam Party and supported by the Indian National Congress. Sonia Gandhis unexpected announcement that she had the numbers brought back memories of 1999 when she made a similar claim and the Prime Minister drew pointed attention to that. Was there a need to introduce a Vote of No Confidence? The Economy is chugging along at a steady clip of around 7.5 to 8%. Unemployment though high there has been a steady growth in the job market. Industrial production is rising and Foreign Direct Investment is also heading northwards. So all in all there is no great urgency to push forward an agenda of "regime change". However, with the Indian National Congress and other dynasty obsessed political factions logic and national interest take a second place to impulsive politically short sighted and, as it is clear from this particular instance, a suicidal race to political disaster, perhaps even extinction. Vote of No Confidence in a Parliamentary Democracy is a serious business and is a weapon that must be deployed only in the gravest of situations.

Rahul Gandhi's speech for nearly an hour was full of sound and fury and it signified nothing except that he exposed his political immaturity before the entire Nation. He made a serious allegation of political corruption against Narendra Modi with regard to the Rafael deal which was refuted by the French Government spokesman  even as the debate raged in the House. Rahul Gandhi alleged that the Government is shying away from disclosing the price of the aircraft as it wants to hide the price escalation. The fact is that the UPA Government itself has signed a no disclosure Agreement and so the Defense Minister was able to prove the falsity of Rahul Gandhis attack.He further made allegations raising questions over the demonetization drive and the surgical strike against terrorist training camps located across the Line of Control in Pakistan held part of Kashmir. Rahul Gandhi used a particularly offensive term. "Jumla".

In the vernacular language the word Jumla is used as sarcastic way of trivializing an accomplishment done with great difficulty and earnestness. Jumla is always associated with a task seriously performed and earnestly executed. Use of the word to denote the heroic efforts of the Indian Army to combat terrorism will not go well with the electorate. After his rambling dis oriented speech, Rahul walked over to the Prime Minister's seat and hugged him, a clear breach of Parliamentary protocol. And after resuming his seat Rahul Gandhi started winking at the Prime Minister another major violation of protocol and parliamentary decorum. The whole nation watched aghast at this awful display of dynastic arrogance and a concerted calculated effort to humiliate the Prime Minister on the floor of the House. In fact, the behavior of Rahul Gandhi will cost the Congress party and its allies votes in the 2019 General Elections.

After the vapid performance of Rahul Gandhi the Prime Minister spoke and he completely ripped apart the false charges made by the insensitive and immature Rahul Gandhi. As usual, the Prime Minister lit into the dynastic scion by flagging the obvious fact that he is holding his office by virtue of his service to the people and not by birth. Calling himself a Kaamdaar not a Naamdaar, Modi mocked the Ganddhis by saying that he dare not see the Gandhis in the eye and he drew attention to the numerous instances when the Congress Party humiliated the Prime Ministers by offering support and then withdrawing it at the last moment: Charan Singh, Deve Gowda and I K Gujral were all victims of the power lust of the Congress party. The stellar performance of the Prime Minster resulted in the No Confidence vote being rejected.

The implications of the Lok Sabha vote need to be examined. 325 votes were cast in favor of the NDA Government and this is 11 vote more than the combined strength of the NDA in the Lok Sabha. I think that the tempo will now pick up for the next elections. Having won the vote of confidence, Narendra Modi may go in for an early elections and I predict that the BJP will get around 305 seats on its own.

The Metaphysics of the Political Imagination: Narendra Modi, the Indian Intellectual and the 2014 Elections

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

A noted Indian "sociologist" in a center page article in the Hindu (April 5, 2014) has made some bold and superficially interesting speculations abort the brand of politics Narendra Modi represents.  I wonder why such eminent sociologists do not subject the Congress Party and its mascot, Sonia Gandhi to the same kind of rigorous scrutiny as many of his conclusions can with equal justification be extended to the Congress. In politics style matters as much as substance and when Indian intellectuals train their guns on one individual and suddenly find his ideological soul mates like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and l K Advani more authentic than Narendra Modi from a "civilization" point of view, then we know that something is seriously wrong about the logic behind such ideologically constructed posturing. Until not that long ago, Indian middle class intellectuals, particularly the tele intellectuals of the JNU breed were articulating  their wisdom in terms of sound bytes aired on NDTV which   drove home just one point: the BJP and its politics is a threat to the "secular" values of the country and by default must support the Congress party. The intellectuals found it both prudent and professionally rewarding to mouth the empty slogans of "secularism" and "inclusion", the stock in trade of high political discourse in India/.

The JNU brand of tele intellectuals were never enamored of the politics of the BPJ and if they start discovering  virtues in Atal ji and Advani ji it can only mean that any kind of rhetoric is justified when it comes to Modi bashing. All the three leaders named above share a common vision of an India that is strong, free from corruption and can hold its head high in the high table of world politics. Unlike the intellectuals who hog prime time television in India, Modi does not seek the approbation or approval of the western world. It does not matter whether Economist endorses Narendra Modi. However, the intellectuals like the author of the center page article referred to, thrive on signets of professional recognition from the Western media and institutions. This particular intellectual was opposed to the nuclear policy of India, and throughout  his long and distinguished career has not criticized USA for the slaughter in World War II  or the repeated acts of armed aggression all over the world. Yet when it comes to India they will pose as if they are the civilizational strength of India lies in its ability to produce publicists like themselves.As far as Narendra Modi is concerned his public rhetoric is civilized and yes, his language is strong and effective but does not degenerate into gutter rhetoric like Mrs Sonia Gandhi and her Congress courtiers. Why does this man not take the Congress woman to task for making public discourse so  vulgar and coarse.

As a sociologists, the writer must be aware that in terms of social inclusion as empirically measured by voting percentages and seats won, the BJP scores much higher than it rival the Congress. At least in North India, most of the SC reserved seats and ST seats have been won by the BJP and there is no use in taking recourse to the Marxist line that such figures only represents false consciousness on the part of the "subaltern" classes. At the end of the day the tele intellectual is always right and facts be damnned. Why let facts and empirically verifiable date come in the way of a politically correct and rewarding statement. The intellectual goes on to gratuitously advive the BJP   to be more "discursive" more "conversational". The discursive space in Indian politics is hogged by the Congress and its academic bandwagon who have monopolized public space in the name of secularism and nationalism. If they want to suggest that the hysterical style of ranting against electoral adversaries like the way Sonia, Rahul and other members of the First Family, the Royal Dynasty represents discursive expanse and a conversational style of politics, I am afraid that people will not accept. The electorate sees the shrill hysterical ranting of the Congress as hate mongering and it is time that the soft intellectuals like the author of the center page article recognize the political style of the dynastic fascists as divisive and fraudulent

To harp on Jaswant Singh has become fashionable. Suddenly the opponents of Narendra Modi have rediscovered the virtues of Jaswant Singh after his rebellion. But the same class of tele intellectuals were berating him until the other day for the views on Partition and his analysis that Congress too was responsible for the Partition and do In need to remind my readers of what they said about Jaswant Singh when the then NDA Government released the Taliban prisoners in exchange for the passengers of the Indian Airlines flight which was hijacked to Kabul. I agree Indians do not have a sense of History, but if "sociologists" who write about the civilizational strengths of the BJP should choose tom ignore recent events then it is not oversight but deliberate distortion for political purposes. Is there anything "civilizational" about Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi. If Narendra Modi is faulted for not being "civilizational" them I wonder if the hate filled rhetoric of the First Family is civilizational.

It is obvious that the writer has not followed the Campaign of Narendra Modi and therefore is unaware of the reasons why he resonates all around the country. He is not an "ersatz"version of the BJP as the writer inelegantly puts it, but rather one who has crafted his political message keeping the complex realities of an ever changing India. The fact is that Narendra Modi has jettisoned the old style identity politics and has changed the terms within which India debates its future. And "sociologists" of course are livid as he has out did them in their own game. He has crafted a message of social and economic development based on the principle that the State has to ensure that the basic structure within which resource transfers and nation building takes place is in tune by and large with the aspirations of the people. And he has successfully sold the argument that the economic downturn in India is linked to the massive and egregious corruption under the congress. What is offensive or objectionable about this fundamental message. Governemnts will be voted in and voted out not on the basis of real and invented identities but on the grounds of performance as seen by the common man. I do not see anything alarming in all this and wish the author had used the resources of his mind to reflect on the conditions prevailing all over the country. The sense of gloom and doom are there in the eyes of eveyone except the starry eyed wonder struck sociologists of JNU.

The upcoming elections will mark a decisive turning point in the history of India. Under Narendra Modi, India will be able to stand and take strides towards improving its economy, living standards and social harmony all of which were ruthlessly compromised during the past 10 years.

This writer can say that Dharampal will certainly endorse Narendra Modi.

Narendra Modi, the BJP and the 2014 Elections: The Storm Ahead

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

As expected the BJP Parliamentary Board met this morning and declared Shri Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. The Congress party which reposes faith in dynastic fascism as its only political principle in all probability  rally around  Rahul Gandhi derisively called Amul Baby in India. It will be an unequal match as Tahul Gandhi does not have either the experience or the national stature to stand up to Narendra Modi and in the forthcoming election all seasoned political observers see a tectonic shift in favour of the NDA led by the BJP.

The issues that will dominate the Elections of 2014 are serious ones and some of the issues are listed below:

1 There has been unprecedented levels of corruption and mis governance during the 10 years of the UPA whose PM was the teflon coated Dr Man Mohan Singh. The disappearance of the files relating to the allocation of coal blocks in the coal gate scandal has put the spotlight on the Prime Minister. Indians are used to corruption and in our everyday lives have to deal with it at some level, but under the Congress the scale and magnitude of corruption has broken all limits and the common man in yearning for a change. Narendra Modi has the image of a clean and efficient politician and is not tainted by a singly scandal.

2 There has been a virtual melt down of the Indian economy. The growth rate has plunged to 3.5% and this is the lowest in nearly tywo decades. The Current Account Deficit is narly 7 % of the GDP and is increasing. The trade gap is widening and in spite of the fall in the value of the rupee exports are not picking up. The high rate of unemployment had made the youth restive and it is the young voter who is expected to vote en masse for Narendra Modi. The Congress has offered no explanation for the decline in the economy except blaming the policies of Pranab Mukherjee the former Finance Minister and now President of INdia. Corrective measure have not been taken for bringing the economy back on track. In fact the situation is getting worse with the inflationary pressure exerted by the rise in petrol and fuel.

3 The populist measures taken by the UPA under the influence of a bunch of civil society activists close to Mrs Sonia Gandhi has imposed an enormous strain on the economy and has made corruption a rural phenomenon. The Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme has spawned huge corruption and the Comptroller and Auditor General has drawn attention to the lapses in the Government schemes

4 The foreign policy scenario is not bright. India has declined before the eyes of the World. There was a time when the voice of India was heard. Today India is silent on all major issues confronting the world. This decline is due . bad statecraft and muddled priorities. The incursions of the Chinese Army have to be addressed in a bilateral forum through discussions. The News papers are full of alarming Reports of the presence of Chinese soldiers deep into Indian territory. I am sure this issue can be settled through dialogue, but the weak UPA Government lacks the credibility to undertake such a dialogue. In the case of Pakistan, India has been craven. Inspite of the fact that the Government of India being aware that Pakistani soldiers killed 5 Indian soldiers in a brutal manner, the UPA regime sought to pass the buck by saying that terrorists dressed in Pakistan Army uniform did this dastardly act. The UPA lost what little respect people had  after this display of cowardice.

Against the declining fortunes of the UPA, Narendra Modi has to craft a winning strategy. His personality and image alone will not see the NDA through because the UPA will throw the 2002 Riots in Gujarat against Modi in onder to garner the votes of the Muslims. This strategy will come unstuck in the big state of Uttar Pradesh, but may have some purchase in other parts. Though the Supreme Court of India has not found anything to prove the involvement of Modi in the riots, the 2002 Riots are still there in public perception. NDA must respond by bringing up the Sikh Massacre of 1984 when Indira Gandhi died. The factionalism within the BJP with the senior leader L K Advani sulking in the shadows after the announcement of the candidature of Hon'ble Narendra Modi may be unsettling in the short run.

The BJP has its work cut out for it and the sooner Narendra Modi establishes an organization which can translate his vision into a reality the bettor it would be.

The vulgarity of dynastic fascism: Why dynastic politics harms India

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books Ajit Pawar, the nephew of Sharad Pawar has said something so terribly obscene even by the standards of Indian politicians that I am forced to write about it. The drought in Maharashtra is due to wrong water derangement policies and rampant corruption in the Irrigation Department. In fact the department has figured recently in a huge scam andf of course given the fact that a UPA ally is involved nothing came out of the exposure. In fact Indian politicians are not afraid of indulging in high level corruption because they know that they can get away. The Hindu this morning revealed that Rajiv Gandhoi way back in 1975 even before he entered politics was the middle man who negotiated a deal for a feet of aircraft for India. Wikileaks must be complimented once again for this exposure. Then came Bofors and not a single conviction. The same is true of the anti -Sikh Riots of 1984: the Congress hushed up the entire episode under the convenient blanket. Ajit Pawar says that he cannot fill the dam by "urinating " in them. When the people of Maharashtra are facing the most severe crisis caused by the drought his remarks only reveals a dynastic fascist mind set that has only contempt for the people of India. Do you think that the people of India i. e the voters will punish such politicians when they come up for reelection. I do not think so. Indians do not have a powerful public memory and vote on the basis of extremely short term considerations. Had the Indian voter been intelligent and discerning he would not have voted the UPA to power by defeating the BJP led NDA Government. Of course, the first past the winning post electoral system that India is saddled with makes it possible for undesirable elements to gather the plurality of votes. Rahul Gandhi made yet another of his stupid meaningl;ess remarks that has rightly earned him the title Amul Baby. He says that India is a "bee hive". Does this stupid fellow even understand the implications of his remark. In a bee hive you have a parasitical queen bee and an army of drones and workers who gather "honey". The Congress Party is gathering honey for a "queen bee" and the drones i.e the chidambarams, the C P Joshis, the ManMohan Singhs, the Kapil Sibals etc gather honey. How apt this metaphor is. Even a stupid man like Rahul can come up with amazingly accurate analogies. If Indian reward dynastic fascism they are only putting the seal of approval on a culture of violence, corruption, criminality and rape. I hope the Indian voter has more sense in 2014.