India's General Election 2024 The Prospects of the BJP and strategies

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The bugle of elections has been sounded and the campaign to capture power has started. There is an increase of 11.5% in the strength of the Electorate and a significantly larger number of candidates are conrtesting, compared to the 2019 Elections. There are two broad allainces, the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP and the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance the I. N. D. I Alliance. Rahul Gandhi, though not the declared leader, is the public face of this motely crowd.

Let us start with the I. N. D, I Alliance. The grouping is riven with personalitiy clashes and strong anti incumbancy wave in the two major states ruled by components of the Alliance: West Bengal and Karnataka. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the NDA is mounting a serious challenge but both the DMK and the CPM have deep roots and so there is only limited hope of BJP gaining a strong posse of seats. I expect asround 6 to 12 seats for the NDA from both these states together. In Karnataka and in West Bengal the BJP is slated to do well. The campaign of Rahul Gandhi is proving to be a huge embarassment to his Alliance. His statement against Sakthi has not gone down well and he has not mastered the art of political rhetoric which even ordinary members of the BJP have total command over. The seats for the INDI Alliance will not increase and Congress numbers may even fall. Except Punjab where the APP will getr the majority of the seats, the INDI Alliance is on a stricky wicket everywhere else in the country.

What are the issues before the Electorate: Governance, Internal Security, Economy, Infrastructure and Employment. On all these issue, except employment the Government has performed well. Governance has remained  more or less corruption free and there are no major scandals, financial or otherwise, affecting the credibility of the BJP. The Electoral Bonds which the Congress has tried to portray as "Licensed Corruption" was introduced to check the role of unaccounted money in the electoral process. The very fact that the electoral bonds could be traced back to the original donor is proof of the good faith in which the Government acted. Unfortunately the Government of India has to contend with a unified Opposition and a hyperactive Judiciary which struck down the Electoral Bond Scheme. It will be reintroduced after the General Elections. And a major slew of reforms of the judiciary including the judges appointing judges system that is in vogue today will ne introduced. The CAA has finally been passed and except for some organized identity groups, there is hope that Citizenship will be rolled out to the minorities in Pakistan. There have been some tension with regard to Center-State Relations. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have refused to cooperate with the Centre on sensitive issues pertaining to transnational crime. I expect the next Government to define Law and Order which have been left by the Constitution to the Statesmore precisely. The Indian Economy has been growing at an average of 8% and the World Bank  and IMF expect this trend to continue. Unfortunately this is largely growth without employment as the only jobs available to the younger generation are in the gig economy. India has seen a phenomenal growth in terms of Infrastructure and the investment in Ports, Railways and Highways will continue. In fact the impressive economic growth figures of India comes from Infrastructural growth.

Given the track record of Governance, Internal Security and Economy I expect Narendra Modi to make a clean sweep in the forthcoming elections. I have not been wrong in my electoral prediction so far and I venture to state that the BJP will win between 334 to 354 seats. give or take a few. The 400+ that the leadership talks of is hype. Unless South India makes a complete U turn  in its politics, this number is not possible. And South India has outlawed miracles. 

All in all a BJP led Government seems probable.  Apart from the Electoral Bonds and the Arvind Khejriwal arrest and imprisonment the Government has not taken any major misstep. The Liquor Policy Scam in which Kavitha the daughter of K C  Rao, the former CM of Telengana and Manish Sisodia and of course now, the Chief Minister od Delhi figure as accused, is only fizz in a beer bottle. It will be impossible for the ED to prove the case in court and this makes me suspect that political motives are behind this strategy. If the Cabinet is guilty of making the decision why is the LT. Gov of Delhi who signed off on the policy not make part of the conspiracy.

India is facing serious challenges in the neighborhood. The tensions in West Asia are increasing and the war in Ukraine though is winding down is showing no sign of approaching peace. Tensions with China will continue as India maintains a strong and aggressive posture.

India's Techade: Nalin Mehta looks at the Digital Revolution in India

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

India's Techade: Digital Revolution and Change in the World's Largest Democracy

Nalin Mehta

Westland, 2023

Nalin Mehta is a well known academic and political observer and is the author of the well regarded massive tome on the New BJP. This book demolished the Christopher Jafferlot and his acolytes who see in the rise of the BJP something that only the deluded overeducated white men can see, a "fascist" "high caste" "Hindu Nationalist" political organization. Of course this narrative is promoted by those fed and battened in the stables of George Soros and his merry men.  Nalin Mehta has decisively shown that the electoral base of the BJP is OBC and SC, ST identity groups. The present book is obviously timed to set the narrative for the 2024 General Elections.

Nalin Mehta has drawn extensively from open source Government data to show that the Digital Revolution initiated by the UPA and further extended and elaborated by the Narendra Modi Government has transformed the face of Indian society and therefore politics. The UNIQUE IDENTIFICATION based on the Aadhar scheme has given a unique digital identity to the citizens which in turn has created the foundation for inclusive banking and Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT). This digital marker coupled with GIS enabled data tracking and mapping has cut administrative costs and has reduced corruption, the bane of Indian public administration so far. 

Several of the socially and economically transformative schemes of the Modi Government are driven by the digital infrastructure that has been erected. The Unified Payment Interface (UPI) is is now global and is competing with established platforms like Visa and Master Card. Demonetization was aimed at eradicating Black Money that had assumed alarming proportions to the tune of nearly 60% of the Gross Domestic Product and terror funding was taking place through the hoarded black economy. Narendra Modi decided to attack both and the master stroke was the sudden demonetization of high value notes. Of course, the those affected by the sudden  move were critical and the Congress Party exposed itself when it came out against what their presiding deity, Rahul Gandhi called a "jumla". The introduction of digital modes of finance has certainly helped create a better environment for business and investment. FinTech the backbone of Digital Finance infrastructure  in India is also creating interest  in parts of Asia and Africa. 

The months of COVID lockdown saw the economy of India collapse and Indiam journalists taking money from  white propaganda 

outlets like New York Times and Washington Post went to town defaming India and its efforts to fight the Chinese created pandemic. One female reporter even used drone footage of burning pyres to earn money from the white propaganda houses. However, Digital India framework provided a reliable means of tracking the clusters of disease and helped to track down contacts. The result was that India had a reliable and efficient system of monitoring the pandemic. The ease with which the COVID vaccinations were administered and the digital authentication in the form of an e-certificate was a marvel of ingenuity, 

Parts of the book  read, unfortunately, like an election manifesto. And that is truly an important aspect as the Digital Revolution has muted the identity politics that drive Indian elections. The class of Labharathis or beneficiaries of the various schemes rolled out by the Government of India under Shri Narendra Modi will propel the BJP towards a 352 to 358 seats in the Lok Sabha. Unfortunately for the Opposition the OBC and SC ST vote banks are now solidly in the BJP bailiwick. 

I enjoyed reading this book. Though I would have brought in the political dimensions of the Digital Revolution more clearly as that was the real intent behind all these ground breaking innovations.

SALVATORE BABONES AND THE DEFENSE OF INDIA, INDIAN DEMOCRACY AND CIVILIZATION; AN ESSAY

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Dr Salvatore Babones

  Dr Salvatore Babones,a Sociologist trained in the John Hopkins University and now an Associate Professor of Sociology in Sydney University, Australia, has kicked up a huge storm by coming out in defense  of India, with all guns blazing. While there is a sharp polemical streak in his popular writings, Dr Babones as a Sociologist he is essentially a sympathizer  of the Left with a bias towards World Systems approach pioneered by Immanuel Wallerstein. Therefore, he does not take the received discourse at its face value. He excavates the evidence and vivisects te data for possible errors and inconsistencies. Nothing remarkable about the method as Historians have been doing just that for over 2000 years, What is new and novel is the ease with which Dr Babones is able to deconstruct the hegemonic discourse from Western Capitals and of course, his own homeland, the USA. 

Dr Salvatore Babones knows how to handle Big Data and subject them to critical scrutiny. All the Data that the ranking agencies lie V-DEM, Freedom House, and the Economist deploy in their Reports are all available in public domain and are generated by the Government of India through its own specialised Statistical wings like the National Sample Survey, Niti Ayog, Reserve Bank of India, and of course, Crime Statistics compiled by the Ministry of Home Affairs. The Ranking Agencies do not contest the validity of the Data and when China provides falsified and inaccurate data none of them dare call out the communist entity due perhaps to the heavy load of western investments there. The narrative report created by the ranking agencies are based on the information provided by "intellectuals, journalists and professors" in the target countries. Dr Babones is certainly right when he says, and he received considerable flak for his intellectual honesty, that Indian "intellectuals" are anti India and are willing partners in the international game of demonising India and vilifying the country. He  however takes a Pollyanna view when it comes to the Ranking Agencies themselves and he says that they are objective but are misled by the Indian informants. I think the answer is not so simple. The Western Ranking Agencies choose "experts" who are known for their political views and ideological pretenses. They essentially round up the usual suspects and ask them to provide an analysis which the "expert" gladly does thereby winning the kudos from his backers and can strut in India with the injured look of a martyr who "speaks truth to Power". 

Where does the problem start, at the Indian end or in Europe and USA. Dr Babones has rightly stated in his now famous article in The Quadrant that  the fall in India's ranking as a Democracy dates back to 2014, the very year Narendra Modi came to Office following an electoral landslide in his favor. And the criticism grew even sharper after he repeated his victory in 2019. It is obvious that the discourse on Freedom, Democracy and Human Rights, carries a huge burden of western liberal expectations, and has nothing to do with  ground realities. Some of the prominent figures who are known to be pro western and who are able to get published in the liberal platforms such as Washington Post, New York Times and the Guardian have been booked by the Government of India for fraud and that has nothing to do with their journalism but more related to crowd funded scams for COVID relief which were conveniently transferred to personal accounts. Even USA has laws against Money Laundering, Wire Fraud and the like. The context is deliberately obscured and a discourse of Freedom of the Press being threatened with the active collusion of such hucksters.

The fall in India ranking in the Hunger Index caused considerable consternation in India with loud mouths in India latching on to what appeared to be a drastic fall under the watch of Narendra Modi. Even I was taen by surprise as I have mentioned in my Blogs that the Direct Transfer Benefits to the low income groups and the free distribution of food grains directly to the target population were some of the innovations introduced by Modi through the linking of National Identity Card (AADHAR) with Bank Accounts.  Babones pointed out that the fall in ranking was due to the false data given in 2013 by the UPA regime which was not corrected by the new Government. In a poor resource constrained country like India, targeted distribution is the only solution. There can be no Universal Distribution Scheme  in India and if ranking agencies cannot understand the rationale, India could care less.

Indian Social Sciences is a discipline that mimics, imitates and copies the intellectual trends in western countries and so we are not surprised that "Social Scientists" in India have a Pavlovian response to the promptings of their handlers and so play ball. Most of the assessments provided by the Indian informants are either misleading or deceitful as Dr Babones has stated on several occasions. Another flawed method used to downgrade India and its Civilization is to use absolute figures, especially crimes against women, and paint a dreadful picture. However when factored for population, then India comes across as a safe country. While I do not want be belabor the point, there is no escape form the fact that the false reportage is due to the complicity of Indian "experts". And most of them work in Public funded Universities and face no administrative or legal issues shows that academic  freedom/license is indeed very high and is systematically misused against India and its image.

People of India must be grateful to scholars like Dr Salvatore Babones for their trenchant rebuttal of the fae narratives pedaled against India.

The Politics and Theory of the Nobel Prize in Economics: Why Abhijit Banerjee and Liberal Theory will not work

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The announcement that Prof. Abhijit Banerjee and his wife have been awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics has been met with estatic glee by both the CPM and the Congress. This fact alone should alert us to the fact that Economic Policies and prescriptions are not altogether free of political and ideological biases.

Western Economic Theory has had an importnat place in Indian political discourse. Nehru adopted the Planned Economy model of Command Economy though the Planning Commission and ensured that India does not grown beyond 3.5% every year. Man Mohan Singh and the then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao opended up the economy and the growth sputtered to 9 to 10%. The Congress in its 2019 Manifesto promised a Universal Income of Rs 72,000 per family. This schem appartently was suggested by this year's Noble Prize winner, Dr Abijit Banerjee   and we will turn to this particular scheme as a proverty alleviating meaure.

The sub prime lending crisis that hit the American Market and let to a Global slowdown in the Worls Economy and more recently the recession that was partly mitigated by huge infusion of funds from the Federal Reserves are all classical keynesian measures. India with its triple problem of Poverty Population and Politicians cannot be so sanguine about political theory offering a way out.

Abhijit Banerjee was afgainst the DeMonitization launcehed by the Hon ble Prime Minister. The economic theory underlying his approach is regnant with the amorality of liberal economic theory. The "Black Money" can be taxed at the consumption end and so it is not bad for the economy. The circulation of Balck Money was to the extent od 33% of the National GDP. And so when the money is spent some of it gets taxed or so the liberal theory goes. What this theory ignores is the fact that much of the politically generated Black Money was being sent abroad as the slew of procecutions now demonstrate and so was of no import as far as the Indian Economy went. Hence this precious assumption of Liberal Economic theory just does not hold any substance.

Another measure that these "poverrty economiists" advocate is untramelled Government spending. In fact the sort of Universal Income Scheme that the Congress promised would have resulted in stagfaltion and a complete melt down of the Economy. Why do I come to this conclusion. Because the whole venture was to be financed not through production of goods and services but thriough deficit financing. Hence it was poison from the word Go. Unfortunately our Left oriented economists cannot think beyond the Liberal economic theory.

What the present Governemnt has been doing is very sensible. It has tried to beep infation down while increasing public spending. The classic Macro Economic measures like interst rates, basis points reduction, lowering GST ect are all welcome measures while they do turn Liberal Economics on its heads has proved quite robust in dealing with the proble.

I would like the Union Government to invite the top economists from China for a one on one interaction to learn from the Chinses example. We must not be taken in by these entrpernuers of poverty.

THE VICTORY OF THE BJP IN THE MAY 2019 ELECTIONS; IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

https://wordcraftandstatecraft.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-electoral-prospects-of-bjp.htmlA look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

There was no great surprise in the relection of the BJP and the victory of Shri Naredra Modi. In fact in a number of blogs we had made the same prediction and the actual number of seats won was close to the figure we had predicted in the blog (link above). 303 seats across the lengrth and breadth of the country. From 282 seats in the 2014 Elections the individual seats of the BJP has gone up to 303 and the Party contested little over 385 seats leaving the rest to its allies like Shiv Sena, JD  (U), Shiromani Akali Dal and the AIADMK. If we can use a cricketting metaphor from the T20 series, the srike rate of the BJP is very high meaning 80 % of the BJP candidates won their seats. In order to curb anti incumbancy, the BJP dropped nearly 105 sitting members. On the whole an impressive amndate and for the first time in India's electoral history, the percentage of votes polled have crossed 50% in vafour of the BJP. Most Governemnts have been formed with vote shares ranging from 28% to 34%. We now have a Governemnt with a vote share of more than 50%. All this means stability and the Government will be bold in taking decisons.

The Map given illustrates the safforon surge that has seen the emergence of the BJP as India's natural party of Governence. This victory was achieved in the face of the most vicious electorl campaign that India has even seen. Rahul  Gandhi, the putative challenger, had to tender an apology to the Supreme Court of India for calling Modi a "chor", thief. Other Congressmen emboldened by the aggression displayed by their leader were less than flattering in their rhetorical attacks on the Prime Minister. The more he was attacked, the greater was the backlash from the electorate. Then a variety of identity cards were pulled out: Dalis are in danger was one such. The fact is that the BJP has convincingly demonstrated its hold over the Dalit population by winning 75% of the reserved seats. In fact Congress did not win a single reserved seat nor did the Communists. For all their bluff and bluster both the Connumits and the Congress are bereft of any support amonmg the subaltern classes. Only the BJP commands the allegiance of the SC and ST communities. In the tibal belt of Central India the BJP held sway. All this goes to ahow thast the vicious campaign of polarization run by the so called Cetre Left Parties did not cut ice with the population.

The BJP won 18 seats in West Bengal and a clutch of seats in Orissa. The re election of Naveen Patnaik to power shows that the Indian electorate rewards good governence. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala the results show that people vote on emotional lines. There was sustained and calculated socialmedia attacks on Modi and the bJP throughout the 5 years that he has been in power and more so sicne the death of Jayalalitaa. The killings of the Tamils in Sri Lanka during the UPA rule was forgotten and the party which was then in power Congress joined hands with the DMK. The ease with which they joined hands shows that the politics of Tamil Nadu is still fluid and if BJP has effective leadership, the challenge can be met. In Bengal the BJP gave a resounding ideological challenge to the TMC. In Tamil Nadu the BJP takes dravidianist ideology for granted. It is not prepared to challenge the dravidianist dispensation.

What can India expect from Narendra Modi in the next five years. First, econom,ic development by huge investment in Infrasttructure will continue. New ports and transport hube will be established. On the National Security front major initiatives can be expected. The Nation Register of Citizens will be given full adminstrative backing as it has the approval of the Supreme Court. Identity politics will not be entertained thopugh the Congress habit of instigating the minorities will continue. Cattle Laws will be enforced so that the instances of gau rakshaks taking law into their own hands are reduced. Israel India partnership in Education will be encouraged. Modi will try to ease tensions with China as he is focussed on the internal developments and he cannot be distracted by adventures near the border.

The Economy will continue to grow at 7 to 8 % and further liberalization will be expected. Agricultural sector will be looked in and cold storage facilties and Silos for grain storage will be undertaken. In Higher Education there will be an emphasis on fundamental research.

The Electoral Prospects of the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The time has come to look back at the campaigns ans see where the Nation is heading towards in the forthcoming General Elections. The campaign  of the Congress centering around the dynastic mascot, Rahgul Gandhi, is surprisingly sharp and focused. The Assured Income scheme launched in the Manifesto is both innovative and attractive. By guaranteeing a minimum income of 72, 000 per family for a year as income support the Congress has created some ripples. Given the state of public journalism in India, the scheme has not attracted the kind of attention it deserves. The BJP brushed this scheme aside. However, the tax burden on the middle class will increase dramatically if this scheme is introduced and it will add to the inflationary woes. For the past 5 years India has seen 8% growth with around 3.5% Inflation. If the Congress comes to power Inflation will sky rocket and growth will plummet. What needs to be done is to work out the benefits already rolled out by the Modi Government to the people and make a comparative assessment.

Except for the one innovative policy measure, the dynastic fascists have run a highly divisive vituperative invective laden campaign. Modi was attacked in every possible manner. His Mother, Family, his personality were all viciously attacked to little effect. The more he was attacked the greater the popularity. Rahul even went to the extent of saying "Chowkidar Chor hai". The watchman is a thief, an attempted rebuke that was transformed into a splendid statement of approbation with people from all walks of life adding the word Cowkidar to their names. In the last General Elections Mani Shankar Ayer's jibe directed against Modi turned out to be a vote getter and this time if Modi is now set to trounce the Congress, the credit should go to Rahul and his meanly mouth jibe.

There is not a single allegation oc corruption against Modi. He has led, for the first time since Independent India, a Government that does not face a single charge. The Scams and Scandals of the Congress and its Allies have been the subject of numerous Inquires but given the state of the judiciary here in India, the prosecution has been tardy. Further, sections of the Judiciary seem to be playing footsie with the Congress as Chidambaram and his son havc secured bail 18 times already over the slew of cases they face. The entire Gandhi family is out on Bail facing serious fraud charges in the National Herald case. This case is one in which the entire property of the National Herald, a Congress Newspaper, was acquired by the first family of the Congress contrary to the rules and law presently in place.The eviction has been stayed by the Supreme Court. Yet another instance of the judiciary playing footsie with the Congress. The Higher Judiciary seems to be a partner in the UPA and it is fast losing the respect of the Nation

In spite of all these, the Congress and its allies are headed for a decisive defeat. Kamalnath, the Chief Minister of Madhya  Pradesh was caught in the Augusta Westland Scandal as some of the money got as kickbacks was recovered from his aides. The Pulwama Attack was sought to be politicized by Rahul and his associates. They wanted proof of the Attack implying that the Government was lying about the Balakot Air Strike. For the first time the Armed Forces became a factorin domestic political squabbles. And the Congress sought in vain to  turn the needle of suspicion on Modi and failed.

The North East will see a resurgent BJP and in Mamta's  Bengal the BJP has made significant inroads. Orissa will see a BJP victory in around 8 constituencies with a hung assembly and in nearby Andhra Pradesh the Jagan Mohan Reddy outfir is set to weep and BJP may win just 2 seats in AP. Tamil Nadu is always a difficult state to study as people show very erratic voting behaviour. BJP may win the Kanya Kumari seat, the Coimbatore seat and has a fighting chance in Ramanathapuram. We know that Kartok Chidambaram and Tirumavalavan will not taste electoral success.

At an all India level it would be safe to predict that Narendra Modi will form the next Government with the NDA getting around 315 seats.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi defeats the vote of No Confidence: Some Implications for 2019

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

 There was never a moment of doubt that the Central Government headed by Narendra Modi would defeat the No Confidence Motion put forward by the Telugu Desam Party and supported by the Indian National Congress. Sonia Gandhis unexpected announcement that she had the numbers brought back memories of 1999 when she made a similar claim and the Prime Minister drew pointed attention to that. Was there a need to introduce a Vote of No Confidence? The Economy is chugging along at a steady clip of around 7.5 to 8%. Unemployment though high there has been a steady growth in the job market. Industrial production is rising and Foreign Direct Investment is also heading northwards. So all in all there is no great urgency to push forward an agenda of "regime change". However, with the Indian National Congress and other dynasty obsessed political factions logic and national interest take a second place to impulsive politically short sighted and, as it is clear from this particular instance, a suicidal race to political disaster, perhaps even extinction. Vote of No Confidence in a Parliamentary Democracy is a serious business and is a weapon that must be deployed only in the gravest of situations.

Rahul Gandhi's speech for nearly an hour was full of sound and fury and it signified nothing except that he exposed his political immaturity before the entire Nation. He made a serious allegation of political corruption against Narendra Modi with regard to the Rafael deal which was refuted by the French Government spokesman  even as the debate raged in the House. Rahul Gandhi alleged that the Government is shying away from disclosing the price of the aircraft as it wants to hide the price escalation. The fact is that the UPA Government itself has signed a no disclosure Agreement and so the Defense Minister was able to prove the falsity of Rahul Gandhis attack.He further made allegations raising questions over the demonetization drive and the surgical strike against terrorist training camps located across the Line of Control in Pakistan held part of Kashmir. Rahul Gandhi used a particularly offensive term. "Jumla".

In the vernacular language the word Jumla is used as sarcastic way of trivializing an accomplishment done with great difficulty and earnestness. Jumla is always associated with a task seriously performed and earnestly executed. Use of the word to denote the heroic efforts of the Indian Army to combat terrorism will not go well with the electorate. After his rambling dis oriented speech, Rahul walked over to the Prime Minister's seat and hugged him, a clear breach of Parliamentary protocol. And after resuming his seat Rahul Gandhi started winking at the Prime Minister another major violation of protocol and parliamentary decorum. The whole nation watched aghast at this awful display of dynastic arrogance and a concerted calculated effort to humiliate the Prime Minister on the floor of the House. In fact, the behavior of Rahul Gandhi will cost the Congress party and its allies votes in the 2019 General Elections.

After the vapid performance of Rahul Gandhi the Prime Minister spoke and he completely ripped apart the false charges made by the insensitive and immature Rahul Gandhi. As usual, the Prime Minister lit into the dynastic scion by flagging the obvious fact that he is holding his office by virtue of his service to the people and not by birth. Calling himself a Kaamdaar not a Naamdaar, Modi mocked the Ganddhis by saying that he dare not see the Gandhis in the eye and he drew attention to the numerous instances when the Congress Party humiliated the Prime Ministers by offering support and then withdrawing it at the last moment: Charan Singh, Deve Gowda and I K Gujral were all victims of the power lust of the Congress party. The stellar performance of the Prime Minster resulted in the No Confidence vote being rejected.

The implications of the Lok Sabha vote need to be examined. 325 votes were cast in favor of the NDA Government and this is 11 vote more than the combined strength of the NDA in the Lok Sabha. I think that the tempo will now pick up for the next elections. Having won the vote of confidence, Narendra Modi may go in for an early elections and I predict that the BJP will get around 305 seats on its own.

One Month of the Modi Sarkar: There is Hope

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Narendra Modi came to power promising "change for the better" or as he prematurely declared. Acche din agaye. (Good time have arrived, a parody of the Kingfisher tag line.) Cynics might say that there is nothing new in what Narendra Modi has done. Let me list out the new departures in just 30 days initiated by the Prime Minister:

1 Make the bureaucracy accountable. The round of meetings that Narendra Modi has had with senior secretaries underscores the fact that Modi expects the bureaucracy to monitor the policies and programmes initiated and report fearlessly. All too often in India, politician are able to suborn the bureaucracy for their own corrupt purposes and the fear of transfer or worse Enquiry makes the senor officers crawl when they are only asked to bend. Modi has taken a decisive step toward making the bureaucracy accountable for the policies of the Government. He met the senior bureaucrats, the Secretaries to Government without the presence of their departmental Ministers, and in this he has taken a leaf straight from the statecraft of Margret Thatcher. This move has been widely commended in India. Another innovation is that Narendra Modi has not permitted anyone associated with the earlier regime to be appointed on the personal staff of his ministers.

2 The emphasis on  Infrastructure and Investment is very clear and Narendra Modi is  expected to announce a series of measures to facilitate economic development. An Indian Sovereign Wealth Fund that will be traded in Wall Street is one measure that is bound to be a hit in the western world. Narendra Modi has already taken steps to bring in China as a partner  in India's Infrastructural development. China is expected to invest in at least four SEZs and that is really a huge step in the right direction. Again China is expected to partner with India in the development of high speed Railways.

3 The crisis in Iraq has been dealt with in a statesmanly manner. The envoys of all counties in the neighbourhood of Iraq have been requested to use their good offices in the speedy  repatriation of Indians stranded in Iraq. The fact that Narendra Modi has chosen to seek the support of West Asian powers suggests that he would like to seek regional solutions for regional problems. USA is the real cause of all the suffering in the region and cannot pretend that it is the solution to the problem it has created. Narendra Modi's trip to Bhutan, B2B, was a great success and if he follows this pattern, I am sure that Indian isolation in the South Asian region can be broken.

4 On the economic front, prices are still rising and food inflation is also high. Narendra Modi has instructed the Food and Agriculture Minister to crack down on hoarders and the State Governments have  been instructed to enforce the decision. There is the added challenge of a failed Monsoon. The Met Department has already said the the El Nino Effect would result in a 50% shortfall in the rains. The food security is being strengthened and imports will be done without fanfare in the press.

The Modi Sarkar inherited a broken economy and a wasteful government and there are signs of the situation turning around. 

Smrithi Irani and the Controversy over her Educational Qualifications

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The new Prime Minister of India, Hon'ble Narendra Modi was barely sworn in and a new row has erupted. The Prime Minister keeping in mind his promise of Minimum Government, Maximum Governence appointed a rather lean ministry. large infrastructure ministries which were considered cash cows by the UPA regime have been clubbed together in order to eliminate  overlapping jurisdictions and minimize time expended on getting clearances and permits. Jawaharlal Nehru created a byzantine bureaucracy which was totally beyond accountability and Modi has set out to rein in this wayward officialdom. He followed it up with a spectacular gesture of inviting all the heads of State and Government of the SAARC. Narendra Modi's swearing in ceremony became a mini summit meeting of all the SAARC nations. The invite to Shri Nawaz Sheriff. the Prime Minister of Pakistan, was a diplomatic masterstroke. The presence of the Pakistan Prime Minister added significance to the occasion.

Unlike the UPA with its huge maga Ministry of nearly 90 ministers, Modi's Cabinet has only 24 Ministers of Cabinet rank. There are 10 Ministers of State with independent charge over their ministries and 14 Ministers of State. Many BJP heavy weights were denied cabinet berths and a number of younger men and women were brought in as Ministers with Cabinet rank. Obviously there will be a lo9t of disappointed MPs who were expecting the be made members of the Cabinet. One particular appointment however has generated some controversy. Smrithi Irani, a well known TV artist who acted in the mega serial Kuanki Saas bhi Kabhi Bahu thi was appointed Minister of Cabinet rank for the Ministry of Human Resource Developemt. Higher Education comes within the purview of this Ministry and it is quite likely that Narendra Modi may take that particular Department and meld it with some other Ministry. He has spoken of the 5 Ts governing his administration: Talent, Tradition, Technology, Transparency, Tourism. Keeping this principle in mind perhaps the Department of Higher Education may be merged with some other Ministry. However, the Congress party raised the lack of educational qualifications as a major talking point.

The Ministry of Human Resource Development was created by Rajiv Gandhi and was headed for a long time by Arjun Singh who used his office to literally sell licences to establish "deemed universities". The Supreme Court had to intervene in order to regulate the spate of deemed universities that have sprung up.With the exit of the State from the field of Higher Education, private players have entered the field in a big way and Higher Education is one field in which the coll refreshing breeze of liberalization has not been felt. Indian Higher Education continues to be over regulated and there is no place for innovation or initiative in the field of Higher Education. Indian Universities are in a state of terminal decline and Higher Education requires immediate attention.

Smrithi Irani has clearly stated that she has studies only up to the 12th Standard and the Congress party says that her lack of educational qualifications makes her ineligible for the job. Indian Ministers of Education have at times been over educated like Dr Nurul Hassan who inflicted enormous damage to the cause of education by making higher education drift in an over charged ideological milieu. Irani will certainly do no such damage and it is best not to allow ideological agents occupy that position. In the two previous instances of non Congress rule, the Congress and its ideological allies mounted serious challenge first to Dr Chander, the Minister for Education under the Janata Party in 1977-79 and also to Dr Murali Manohar Joshi who served as MHRD Minster under Atal Behari Vajpeyee. By entrusting this portfolio to an  minster who will not be perceived as partisan, Narendra Modi has insulated the field of Higher Education from the kind of pulls and pressures which it has seen in the past. Smrithi Irani will obviously be guided in her brief by the Prime Minister.

One of the most damaging consequences of the long innings of Dr Nurul Hassa as Minister of State for Education was that all important Institutions were brought under the tutelage of the Congress party and its affiliates: ICHR, UGC, ICSSR, ICCR, CSIR etc. It is time to democratize these institutions and the time is now.

"India has won": The implications of Narednra Modi's massive Electoral Victory, 2014

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Regular readers of my blog would have realized that I have always predicted a  Naredra Modi victory and my estimate even of the seats won by the BJP has proved to be accurate. The Congress party, just as I predicted lost and lost so badly that it does not even qualify for the Post of the Leader of the Opposition. It appears that the Electorate has voted decisively and such magnificent electoral mandates carry with them the danger of evaporating just as fast.  It is necessary to understand, grasp and analyze the el corruption was also election of 2014 as it will set the benchmark for several subsequent elections.

The BJP has become a National party in that in the elections just concluded the BJP has secured nearly 50% of the votes polled and in a Parliamentary form of Democracy this is massive. Second, the Party which had just 2 members in the Parliamentary Elections of 1984 has now secure on its own 282 seats and along with its allies reached the 332 mark. This means that Narendra Modi led Government will be strong ans stable and will not be subject to the politics of blackmail that bedeviled the Congress Regime. Infrastructure building ministries like Ports and Telecom were assigned to regional political parties and the 2G Spectrum scandal and the Coal Allocation Scandal were the direct outcome of coalition politics. Narendra Modi does not have that handicap and being personally incorruptible he will either keep these ministries with himself or assign them to an aide whose loyalty he is assured of.  The trust that Narednra Modi has made with  revolves around the promise of Developmenmt which will pull the country out of the morass of economic stagnation. The development will be financed by large Infrastructure projects and the return of investor confidence is crucial to the success of this project. The youth have voted overwhelmingly for Narendra Modi in the hope that his promise is delivered upon.

The fact is that the Congress led UPA regime apart from being embroiled in egregious corruption was also undermining the social fabric of the country by resorting to identity po9litics of the lowest kind. Every political decison was taken keeping the interests of the ruling party and its vote bank in sight. Narendra Modi now has the elbow room to stay away from identity politics. The Communal Violence bill is a good example of such misguided initiatives. In India it is well known that all previous instances of communal violence were instigated by the Congress party and even in the 2002 Riots for which Narendra Modi was blamed and eventually cleared, it was the Congress that participated in the large scale killings that went on. In fact nearly 200 Congressmen are facing the courts for their role in the riots. Under Narendra Modi social peace will prevail and that is what India needs at the moment. The statecraft of Narendra Modi is predicated upon economic issues and so will be driven by the need and desire for social and political calm. In fact the Indian ruppee has already started rallying withoing hours of the modi victory.

The Governance of the country, or to put it in the words of Modi, "minimum governance, maximum governance" will be based on extensive consultations will all the constitutionally mandated authorities. The National Development Council in which all the Chief ministers of the States are represented, will play an important role and to that extent the Planning Commission will be rendered redundant. Of course, planning will be necessary but that will be done on the basis of rational criteria. The Reserve Bank of India has changed the interest rates and the new Government will take steps to increase foreign trade and reduce the widening trade deficit,  Roads, Powers and Hi Speed Raiways will be give due importance and in all these the involvement of China will be welcome.

India;s foreign policy is in shambles. The previous regime did not pursue any kind of strategy in the pursuit of Indian foreign polcy. The Americans made it a habit to take India for granted in the name of the "strategic partnership". Under Narendra Modi the "look East " Policy will be firmly in place Perhaps the first country Narendra Modi will visit after taking office will be China. Narendra Modi has written extensively on the impressive economic growth of China and his development plank owes some of the boiler plate to China. With USA in terminal decline, nothing much can be expected.

The massive mandate will bring peace and to some extent prosperity to India both of which were massively dented by the Congress..

The 2014 Parliamentary Election Campaign and its Aftermath: A Bitter War of Words unleashed by the Congress party

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The dust is slowly settling on the unusually long, and even by the standards of Indian electoral rhetoric, a very ugly campaign season. The Congress party set the trend when its President, Sonia Gandhi in an election rally accused the BJP of sowing fields of poison, an Indian expression which cannot be rendered easily into English. Zehar ki Kheti, the phrase used by Sonia Gandhi implies a deliberate cultivation of poison inorder to entrap innocents. The ugliness inherent in this remark set the benchmark for others to equal or exceed the shock quotient of Sonia's vulgar and tasteless rhetoric. And the BJP returnrd the compliment in kind.

Throughout the last two years, Hon'ble Narendra Modi in his speeches has been trying to focus attention on three issues: development, corruption and security, both internal and external. He deliberately set aside all divisive issues so that the Electorate makes up its mind in an informed manner. The old style Indian electoral politics of raising caste, religion, region and language controversies were set aside for a highly civilized campaign based on performance and governance. The Congress party rattled by the response that Modi was getting decided to go on the offensive and picked up caste and religion as weapons from its well stocked armory.  The wild charges leveled by Priyanka Gandhi on Narendra Modi set the stage for the rivals to rake up the controversial land deals of her husband, Shri Robert Vardra. This uneducated man with absolutely no resources was able to build up an empire with assets of nearly 1,000 crore rupees. His business model was simple and ingenious. He would approach a real estate or construction company for a soft loan to buy land and use soft loan to buy land from Congress rules states and get the land use changed and subsequently sell the same land back to the same developers for windfall profits. The BJP called this model the R S V P Model, each letter standing for Rahul, Sonia, Vadra and Priyanka respectively. The Congress retaliated by accusing Hon;ble Narendra Modi of gifting land to industrialists at throw away prices and their ire was directed against Adnani a business tycoon who like most businessmen in crony capitalism friendly India was equally close to the Congress and it turned out that much of his deals had materialized during the Congress regime.

The personal attacks on Narendra Modi were both vulgar and intense. Any lesser man would have wilted under the intense and well orchestrated campaign of vulga personal attack directed at Narendra Modi. The fact that Hon;ble Naendra Modi had married Jodhabehn when he was very young was raked up to question his marital status and of course the calumny that a man who abandoned his spouse cannot be trusted. This campaign was a clever one inthat it touched a nerve right at the heart of Indian social values. Fortunately, the clarification issued by the brother of Modiji's spouse cleared the air and the campaign of Rahul Gandhi just exploded on the face of the Congress party. Then the Congress shifted its attack on the Other Backward caste status claimed by Narendra Modi. Having brought in the dimension of "high" politics and "low" politics into the electoral discourse the Congress stirred up the caste cauldron hoping to conjure up the witches brew. The unseemly remarks of Priyanka Gandhi came in handy during the last phase of the Polls which were to take place for 33 seats in UP and Bihar, and the BJPwent to town over the remark and made it appear that the Congress was dividing the people on the basis of caste. The thoughtless remarks of an uneducated and unsophisticated young woman, Priyanka Gandhi came in handy to tear the "inclusive" character of the dynastic fascist outfit, the Congress party.

The conduct of the Election Commission was not above board. India has a constitutionally mandated Election Commission whice usually does a good job. In Varanasi where Narendra Modi is also contecsting against the AAP candidate Arvind KLhejriwal Narendra Modi was denied permission to hold a rally while Rahul Gandhi and Kejriwal were accorded permission. The discrimination was brought before the public of Varansi in a huge way.

The election process spread over 50 days has led the politicians particularly the Congress apprehensive of impending defeat to use identity issues to degrade the election. However, the next Government is likely to be the Narendra Modi's.

The Election Campaign and the Prospects of a stable Government in India: May 2014

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Election Campaign for the 2014 General Elections in India have started. All the major parties have started their run up for the elections with the BJP under Narendra Modi leading the pack. A few week back it appeared that the BJP was heading for a 300+ seats in the LOK SABHA. Now a new uncertain factor has entered. A clutch of regional parties like the BJD, the JD (U), the AIADMK and a number of smaller parties with limited electoral prospects have entered into an alliance of sorts, styling themselves, the Federal Front. From what we have been able to gather, this new front is only a rehashing of the Third Front whose stated objective is to maintain a equal distance from both the Congress and the BJP. However, in the name of fighting "communal" forces the Third Front can be expected to side with the Congress should there be a fractured verdict. The ease with which the Congress is able to muster support against the BJP makes the task of the National Campaign of the BJP that much more arduous. The anti BJP and anti Congress public stance will last till the elections as the regional parties do not want to share the responsibilty for the criminal acts of monumental corruption which has gone on under the Congress. The so called Federal Front expects the Congress to prop up its Government just to keep the BJP out. Since this game stands exposed let us now turn our attention to the BJP Campaign.

Narendra Modi has had a series of very successful rallies/ In Meerut, Gokarkpur and Kolkatta Narendra Modi addressed massive rallies. If the turn out in these rallies is any indication of ground reality, then we can rest assured that the BJP will sail through to victory. However, Indian politics is neither that simple nor predictable, In all these rallies Narendra Modi addressed a litany of local issues and was able to link them with major national questions: insecurity due to increased terrorist activities and the UPA;s lackluster handling of them, the massive price rise which has sapped the people and of course the monumental corruption have all been brought to the attention of the people. The issue of governance has now taken centre stage and India seems to be moving away from the old style identity politics to embrace a more inclusive and purposeful vision of politics. Narendra Modi worls his magic with the crowds and has the Congress really alarmed as the Congress does not have a single leader of stature who can conncet with the people. In most rallies the crowd was arounf 400,000 to 500,000 and is a huge figure even by Indian standards.

The BJP campaign strategy is three fold. First, it is selling the Gujarat model of economic development as one of successful developmement. In spite of obstacles placed on its path, Gujart has been able to notch up growth figures of 8 to 9% annually and the infrastructure in the state is almost of western standards. In all the rallies, Narendra Modi drove home the point: bijali, sadak, pani--electricity, roads and drinking water. Secondly, the BJP has successfully targeted the Congress and its top brass for Corruption. The 2G Spectrum Scandal, the Coalgate scandal and more recently the Westland Helicopter Scandal has landed the Congress in an unenviable situation and has made feeble attempts to deflect the charge, Now the impression has gained ground that the Corruption of the Congress is the one single factor that inhibits developemt and Narendra Modi and his Government may be guilty of unconventional politics, but corruption is not one of his weak points. None of the other state governments can match that record. Finally, the focus has now shifted from 2002 Riots in Gujarat to the Congress sponsored massacre of 1984 when the Congress party organized a massive pogrom of killing Sikhs when one of their leaders was eliminated. And for this shift of focus, the BJP has to thank bloggers like this one who relentlessly kept the 1984 in the public eye and of course, the rather inane and meaningless remarks of the dynastic mascot, Rahul Gandhi.

All national surveys show the BJP and its allies in the NDA reaching a figure of around 225+ out of 242 and the Congress Party may not cross even into three digit numbers/ The Federal Front is expected to do well and if it reaches around 200 or so then the Congress will extend support and encourage it to form thr next regime. However, the people of India are aware of the dangers of a fractured mandate and this time around we can expect a decisive mandate. The Congress party has started floundering. Its leader Sonia Gandhi's statements about the BJP have evoked hostile response and the Telengana issue has already started snowballing into a huge problem for the Congress. The ham handed manner in which Chidambaram as Home Minister handled the whole Telengana issue so that he could get a safe MP seat from Telngana has come back to haunt the Congress.

As usual let me end by making the prediction that BJP will emerge as the largest pre poll block in the next Lok Sabha.

The Challenge of the AAM ADMI PARTY; How to confront the Great White Hope of Indian Politics

A  look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Urban India is witnessing a novel political phenomenon: the rise and rise of the Aam Admi Party. The anti corruption movement launched by Anna Hazare was accompanied by a surge of civil society activism against corruption in India and the victory of the Aam Admi Party can be traced directly to the political consciousness roused by the movement of Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare. While the former supports the BJP under Hon'ble Narendra Modi as the political alternative, Anna Hazare decided to remain apolitical. His chosen disciple Arvind Khejriwal decided to break away and form a political party (the AAP) which rolled to power with the support of the Congress party and is now the ruling party in Delhi. It is time to assess the strengths of this new force and try to evaluate its impact on the 2014 Elections to the Lok Sabha. The BJP can ignore the AAP only at its own risk and must take steps to counter its appeal.

Until the victory of the AAP it was generally held that the BJP will emerge victorious in the 2014 General Elevtions with Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister. Now the picture is not that sanguine. primarily due to the politics of the Aam Admi Party. Led by a former Indian Revenue Officer, Shri Arvind Khejriwal (around 45 tyars old). the AAP seized control over the reins of Government in Delhi after the BJP declined to form the Government. The BJP won 32 seats, a few seats short of an absolute majority. The AAP after declaring publicly that it will not seek the support of the Congress, a party with a national notoriety for Crime, Corruption and Communalism, had no problem in getting the support of the Congress which is extending crucial support from outside the Government to sustain the Government. This arrangement is neither politically valid nor an ethical one as both Parties snipe at each other all the time and yet the Congress voted in favor of the APP in the Delhi assembly a few days back. I do not think this arrangement will last beyond a couple of months as the Congress will be badly dented if the AAP succeeds.

Arvind Kejriwal played to the gallery like a pro. He rode a metro train to the Capital to take the vote of Office at Delhi's Ram Lila Grounds where he sat on dharna along with his mentor. Such a populiost gesture went down well with the people who love to see their "High Officials" appear ordinary. What is forgotten is the fact that to keep the pretence of Arvind Khejriwal's pro poor image huge public expenditure was incurred in order to secure the metro route. A mere gesture, a nod in the direction of the common man, a supreme act of condescension is taken as proof of the simplicity and honesty of Arvind Khejriwal. Let us give him his moment.

The policy initiatives taken by the AAP even before it secured a vote of confidence is proof of the absolute disregard for the public exchequer. Announcing subsidies to the tune of 3, 500 crore rupees, the electricity bills of the consumers in New Delhi got some relief. However, the long term solution to the problem of energy pricing lies not in subsidies but in augmented power generation and the AAP has no clue as to what to do. Arvind Khejriwal is a mechanical engineer trained in IIT, Kharaghpur in West Bengal and he may have some idea of the problems inherent in his solutions.

The political phenomenon called the AAP is new to Indian politics. For long the political discourse has been dominated by issues of personality and identity. The AAP has shifted the discourse to issues concerning the common man: water, electricity, public safety, and corruption. The shift to a non identity based politics is welcome. However, it was Narendra Modi who shifted the emphasis on Governance rather than identity. The appeal of this new kid on the block to the post 1990's generation is obvious. Liberalism initiated by Narashima Rao in the 1990's has spawned a whole generation whose politics is shaped by live issues concerning everyday life and problems. The network created by the AAP during the heady days of the Anna Agitation paid huge dividents. The AAP was able to articulate the problems of the people of small neighbourhoods because it had a dedicated cadres working here. This networked interaction with localities using GIS and other sophisticated tools of analysis makes the AAP a viable force/ The bJP will do well to invest more tiem amnd energy in drawing out local issues spread over 532 Parliamentary consituencies instead of banking entirely on the charisma of Hon'ble Narendra Modi.

On balance, the AAP is certainly a new force but its alliance with the Congress will spell its doom.

The Assemby Elections in India: The Prospects of the Congress and the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Assembly Polls in the five states--Rajastan, Chatiisghar, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi  and Mizoram--will soon be over and it is time to look at the possibilities or rather the chances of the two parties. For the BJP this is a make or break election as the Prime Ministerial candidate, Sri Narendra Modi was the chief campaigner in all the state save Mizoram. Any adverse result would be interpretted as a reflection on his electoral appeal and so also the case with the dynastic fascists, the Congress party. The Congress fielded Shri Rahul Gandhi as their main campaigner and once the ballot boxes are open the country will know the mood of the electorate. This election campaign was characterized by extremely low rhetoric from both sides and especially from the Congress party. The Congress "crown prince" Rahul Gandhi the inheritor of the family throne hurled abuses like "Chor" (thief), "lootere" (looters) and his mother, the Italian born Sonia, not to be out done referred to the BJP as "poison". Such rhetoric will hardly enthuse the voter and as we begin the run up to the 2014 Parliamentary Elections we expect the Congress to out do itself in the rhetorical sphere. The BJP responded to these flourishes of inspired invective with a sobriquet that caught the goat of the Congress Party: Shezada or Mughal Prince. Of course the title was used by Narendra Modi to address Rahul Gandhi who is also called Amul Baby by the Indian political class.

In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia ran a well organized campaign and was able to connect with the electorate on the twin issue of mis governance and corruption. The Dynastic Fascists appointed, Ashok Ghelot as their Chief Minister and his Cabinet was plagued with serious issue of crime and corruption from the word "go". The involvement of his cabinet colleague in the murder of a dalit woman who was also involved with another congress man threatened the regime as both the Gujjars and the dalits started distancing themselves from the Congress Party. The Congress started wooing the jats, the notoriously fickle and]self serving caste, by promising a 5% reservation in Government jobs. However, it is unlikely that this strategy will make much of a difference except in the Bharatpur region. The Congress went to town about its social welfare schemes,  but the schemes introduced were badly executed and ended up alienating more people. It is certain that the BJP will form the next Government under Vasundhara Raje Scindia.

In Madyha Pradesh, the Government of Shiraj Chuhan was a corrupt and infested with elements which were thriving off the Government contracts. The Timber Mafia has acquired a stranglehold over the state and people are aware of it. However, the Congress party with its internal factionalism and conflicts over ticket distribution was not able to put up a credible fight. The  senior congressman Dig Vijaya Singha was sideleined and the arc lights were on Jyotie Scindia, the son of Madhav Rao Sindhia and the nephew of Vijaya Raje. The price rise, inflation and the price of onions all came into paly in this election. The BJP was able to recover lost ground as Narendra Modi campaigned extensively in the state and the BJP is likely to come to power with a fairly good majority, but it will see a  drop in seats.

In Delhi the BJP changed its Chief Ministerial candidate mid way through the polls. Vijay Goel was repalced by Dr Harsh Vardhan Singh, a physician with a fairly good reputation as far as Indian politicians go. The Capital has seen a contest between the Congress and the BJP. This time with the entry of the AAM ADMI PARTY  of Arvins Khejriwal there is a triangular contest. The two major parties are both crying foul saying that the AAP is playing the spoiler and the BJP very effectively countered the influence of the AAP by asking people not tom waste their votes. It is likely that the BJP will win the state but the unfortunate presence of the AAP will make Government formation a trifle difficult. I would not be surprised if the AA{ splits after tjhe polls as the party is run on autocratic grounds with Arvind and Sissodia dominating the show.

In Chatiisghar, the massacre of May 2013 oeganized by a powerful faction within the Congress Party has made the job of the Congress Party extremely difficult. The Party tried to blame the BJP for the massacre and elicit sympathy, but the electorate in India knows exactly who was behind the attacks. Ajoit Jogi ran a lack lustree camapign and Dr Raman Singh will reemerge the victor.

In the elections the level of campaigning, especially byn the Congress Party fell to an all time low. Yet with all the negative campaign and personal attacks on Narendra Modi, the bJP will do well. 

Convicted Politicians, Rahul Gandhi and the outrage over the Ordinance

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Indian Government headed by Dr Man Mohan Singh sent an Ordinance to the President of India by which Indian politicians convicted of heinous crimes would not be disqualified from the membership of the State Assemblies and the National Parliament. The alarming rate at which criminals are entering the political process and getting elected to the seats of power has been commented upon by several public figures and there has been very powerful civil society movements too, The Supreme Court of India in a recent judgement said categorically that convicted politicians lose their seats and cannot continue in their elected positions. This judgement was widely seen as a small step in cleansing the stables of Indian politics of rapists, murderers and dacoits. Instead of welcoming this judgement, the Congress Party introduced a bill on parliament to undo the judegement. The strident opposition of the Bharatiya Janata Party forced the bill to be submitted to a special committee and the matter rested there. The fact is that an important ally of the UPA, a man called Laloo Prasad Yadava, a semi literate thug from Bihar is likely to be convicted in the Fodder Scam case whose judgement will be pronounced on the 30th of September 2013. In spite of having at least 4 prominent witnesses killed, the prosecution soldiered on and and the conviction of this fellow in on the cards.

In the forthcoming Parliamentary election which will be held by May 2014, the Congress and its allies will be wiped out as the Nation is sick and tired of the grand corruption that has taken by place. The minsters responsible for massive corruption have been shielded from prosecution a plaint Central Bureau of Investigation or the CBI whose Director was chastised by the Supreme Court of India for being a "caged parrot" of the powers that be. In the Coalgate Scam even the files implicating the Congress leaders who got coal blaocks allocated to them have disappeared from the custody of the Coal Minister, who happened to be the Prime Minster himself. The BJP in spite of a very messy leadership struggle is poised to win the upcoming electoral battle. The Congress Party pokes fun at the messy struggle involving the aging patriarch, L K Advani and Hon'ble Narendra Modi ignoring the sad fact that in the Congress party, dynastic fascism ensures that on one can aspire for a leadership position in the party except those born to the Nehru bloodline. This is highly primitive system of ensuring that the leadership remains within the "Royal Family" has contributed in no small measure to the degeneration of the political culture in India as it has made politicians cultivate factional loyalties and court family members in oder to ensure their visibility in the political arena. Unfortunately, the Congress political culture is being emulated by all the other corrupt political allies of the Congress like the DMK, the RJD and other "secular" parties.

It is against the back ground sketched above that we must see the "idealistic outburst " of Rahul Gandhi, the Crown Prince of the Congress party and the son of Sonia Gandhi the Italian widow of Rajiv Gandhi. When Man Mohan Singh was away on a visit to the USA to address the U N Genaral Assembly, Rahul Gandhi called a Press Conference and denounced the Ordinance awaiting Presidential assest as "nonsense" and deserves to be thrown out, Most political commentators felt that Man Mohan Singh stood dimnished as a result of the public rebuke administered by Rahul Gandhi. The Ordinance was sent to the President after it had been cleared by the Cabinet and had the backing of Rahul's mother, Sonia Gandhi. It is shameful that dynastic fascism has begun to undermine even the office of the Prime Minister. In the noise caused by Rahul's "idealistic: outburst what is firgitten is the fact that the President of India refused to sign the Ordinance and the real credit for scrapping the Ordinance should go to Shri Pranab Mukerjee, the Prersident of the Republic. Instead the pliant electronic and print media in India make it appear as if Rahul Gandhi's "idealistic" outburst had led to a rethink.

Certain trends are visible form this episode. First, there is a lot of factional strife going on in the Congress Party. Second, a very unhealthy precedent has been set: one in which the Crown Prince can make the Government of the day make a complete turnaround in its policy. There is no place for civilized political discourse in such a scenario. Even Arun Jailey, a senior leader of the bJP said that Man Mohan Singh should resign because he was undermined by the crown price. I expecty that eminent Leader of the Opposition to know that the Prime Minister and his Cabinet is responsible to the Parliament and not to the  strippling, Crown Prince. This just gies to show how deep the shadow of dynastic fascism is in India.

The BJP did not emerge as the victor in this round but to its credit the Pary and Hon'ble Naredra Modi opposed the Orinance. The shameless courtiers of the Congress do not even have the dignity to say that their Government  has been undermined and the Prime Minister, a nominee of the "Royal Family" has been publicly humiliated. The demands for the resignation of the Prime Minister only reinforce the perception that he is accountable to the "royal family" and not to Parliament. Rahul Gandhi said that it was his "personal opinion" but such is the strangle hold of dynastic fascism that personal opinions become Government policy.

Narendra Modi and the BJP; The Internal crisis and its ramifications

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books The elevation of the Hon'ble Narendra Modi to head the election campaign for the 2014 General Elections was not unexpected. The BJP has seen in the Chief Minister a new kind of leader, one who has the largest appeal in a country where the majority of the population is less than 30 years of age. The demographics of the electorate dictates the choice of a campaign strategist who can connect with the younger sections of the population. Another important point. After fomenting "identity politics" based on confessional sects, the country particularly the Muslims were willing to give the Congress party its thumbs up by default. The Congress party had learned the art of whipping up minority fears for its own dynastic purposes. The happy fallout of the Jaswant Singh controversy has been that it has led to a rethinking about the role of the Congress in the tragedy of Partition and many are now willing to concede that the Congress too was complicit in the tragedy. Minority fears also revolve around the unsettled and ongoing controversy of the role of the Congress Party and its leadership in the anti-Sikh Massacre of 1894. One happy consequence of all these developments is that the Congress propaganda of being a party which protects minority interests has been questioned. The changing nature of Indian society and demography has led to VIRTUAL REJECTION OF POLITICS OF the "old kind". The cobbling together of caste groups, vested interests and sundry other sodalities into a combination that can hurl a candidate across the winning post and in the first past the winning post system this strategy was often successful. The only exception to this general rule was the 1977 election which was a referendum on the Congress Party imposed Emergency. The 2014 Elections is showing every sign of snowballing into a referendum on the Congress and its performance. The series of scandals involving powerful congressmen like P Chidambaram and Pawan Bansal, regional allies like the DMK and the rest has made the entire country restive. Indians have come to accept a fair degree of corruption as then price for democracy, unlike China where the Confucian ethics curbs the predatory instincts. However the rising crime graph and the impunity with which the Congress dealt with the question of accountability has outraged the nation and so the 2014 Election will be fought on the issue of governance and accountability. The Chief Minister of Gujarat, Hon;ble Narendra Modi has been able to articulate a vision of politics which the young find highly inspirational. He has turned politics over to Economics and has made development the sole criterion for political legitimacy. In this, Modi is essentially following the East Asian and China model which placed salience on develpment. The growth rate of Gujarat over the past decade has been virtually in the double digits and even the hostile Indian print media has had to acknowledge the vast improvement in the economy of Gujaratt. There are however questions of inclusion which still remain. We must say that only after the economy has grown can one address the issue of inclusion. The ideologues of the Congress and their cohorts in the Indian "social science" establishment have raised quetions about the "inclusive" nature of Gujarat's growth story. What these ideologues fail to grasp is that over the last decade Gujarat has become almost a developed state and all social indices are positive. It is against this background that Narendra Modi began to draw attention. The people of India, particularly the young want better lives for themselves, better education and better living standards and are convinced that the old style of identity politiccs favored by the Congress is not taking the country anywhere except toward crime and corruption. The schemes launched by the Gujarat Government if replicate on a national scale will lead to tremendous progress. Governance in GujarAT IS FREE FROM THE MALAISE OF CORRUPTION. hON.BLE nAREDRA MODI is perhaps the only chief minister who does not face charges of corruption and financial maleficence. And the people of India want to give this new kind of politics a chance. The BJP like any Indian political party is full of factions. L K Advani has virtually disassociated himself from the leadership of Shri Modi, This is unfortunate as Advani is a tall leader and well respected within the party and outside. I have great respect for L K Advani and I think that he is too great a man to let the clouds of today rain out the prospects for a better India. However Modi has a toough job ahead of him. Being the chairman of the Election Committee he would need to interact with state level leaders who are aligned to various factions and the defeat of the party in Karnataka must have led to the realization that factionalism is self defeating. Modi must quickly develop a line of command which reports directly to him and not to the faction bosses. The 2014 Elections will be fought on the issue of governance and corruption and Modi has demonstarted success in both.