Monday, April 8, 2019

The Electoral Prospects of the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The time has come to look back at the campaigns ans see where the Nation is heading towards in the forthcoming General Elections. The campaign  of the Congress centering around the dynastic mascot, Rahgul Gandhi, is surprisingly sharp and focused. The Assured Income scheme launched in the Manifesto is both innovative and attractive. By guaranteeing a minimum income of 72, 000 per family for a year as income support the Congress has created some ripples. Given the state of public journalism in India, the scheme has not attracted the kind of attention it deserves. The BJP brushed this scheme aside. However, the tax burden on the middle class will increase dramatically if this scheme is introduced and it will add to the inflationary woes. For the past 5 years India has seen 8% growth with around 3.5% Inflation. If the Congress comes to power Inflation will sky rocket and growth will plummet. What needs to be done is to work out the benefits already rolled out by the Modi Government to the people and make a comparative assessment.

Except for the one innovative policy measure, the dynastic fascists have run a highly divisive vituperative invective laden campaign. Modi was attacked in every possible manner. His Mother, Family, his personality were all viciously attacked to little effect. The more he was attacked the greater the popularity. Rahul even went to the extent of saying "Chowkidar Chor hai". The watchman is a thief, an attempted rebuke that was transformed into a splendid statement of approbation with people from all walks of life adding the word Cowkidar to their names. In the last General Elections Mani Shankar Ayer's jibe directed against Modi turned out to be a vote getter and this time if Modi is now set to trounce the Congress, the credit should go to Rahul and his meanly mouth jibe.

There is not a single allegation oc corruption against Modi. He has led, for the first time since Independent India, a Government that does not face a single charge. The Scams and Scandals of the Congress and its Allies have been the subject of numerous Inquires but given the state of the judiciary here in India, the prosecution has been tardy. Further, sections of the Judiciary seem to be playing footsie with the Congress as Chidambaram and his son havc secured bail 18 times already over the slew of cases they face. The entire Gandhi family is out on Bail facing serious fraud charges in the National Herald case. This case is one in which the entire property of the National Herald, a Congress Newspaper, was acquired by the first family of the Congress contrary to the rules and law presently in place.The eviction has been stayed by the Supreme Court. Yet another instance of the judiciary playing footsie with the Congress. The Higher Judiciary seems to be a partner in the UPA and it is fast losing the respect of the Nation

In spite of all these, the Congress and its allies are headed for a decisive defeat. Kamalnath, the Chief Minister of Madhya  Pradesh was caught in the Augusta Westland Scandal as some of the money got as kickbacks was recovered from his aides. The Pulwama Attack was sought to be politicized by Rahul and his associates. They wanted proof of the Attack implying that the Government was lying about the Balakot Air Strike. For the first time the Armed Forces became a factorin domestic political squabbles. And the Congress sought in vain to  turn the needle of suspicion on Modi and failed.

The North East will see a resurgent BJP and in Mamta's  Bengal the BJP has made significant inroads. Orissa will see a BJP victory in around 8 constituencies with a hung assembly and in nearby Andhra Pradesh the Jagan Mohan Reddy outfir is set to weep and BJP may win just 2 seats in AP. Tamil Nadu is always a difficult state to study as people show very erratic voting behaviour. BJP may win the Kanya Kumari seat, the Coimbatore seat and has a fighting chance in Ramanathapuram. We know that Kartok Chidambaram and Tirumavalavan will not taste electoral success.

At an all India level it would be safe to predict that Narendra Modi will form the next Government with the NDA getting around 315 seats.

1 comment:

Ranjan Kaushal said...

Very good and incisive observations. Beautifully done. And very heartening and likely to be true assessments. Kudos Bahu 👍👍