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This was written before the Pulwama Attack
The General Election that are due in 2019 are crucial for India. On the one hand we have the rumblings of discontent from sections of the rural population and on the other we have the gradual consolidation of fragmented political forces uniting under the banner of a "Great Coalition" or Maha Gattabandhan. What will be the BJP's strategy under these changed circumstances. We must also note that in the three major Assembly Elections held recently, the BJP lost all three without however, surrendering its vote share The BJP strategists have an unenviable task: they have to forge a winning strategy in a situation in which the NDA Government faces a double whammy: the consolidation of Opposition parties and the anti incumbency which is rising by the day. Since the BJP has a formidable election machinery it will be in a position to worst these challenges, but it needs thought.
The record of the BJP Government has not been bad, in spite of what the Indian Mainstream Media may say. The policies of the Central Government have had a direct bearing on the life and Livelihood of large sections of the Indian poor. The recently launched Health Insurance Scheme, in spite of its teething troubles, is a resounding success. The rural poor have benefited from this Scheme and like all other Schemes of the Government it is linked to ADHAR and is based on the direct transfer of funds from the Central Government to the Hospital in which the patient is treated. The financial inclusion project of the Government has enabled a large number of people to be drawn into the banking network and it is likely that, if the BJP returns to power, it will announce a universal household income to all eligible poor. This policy, may however, result in the gradual phasing out of subsidies. The Swachch Bharat Scheme is undoubtedly a grand success. It may not have met all the parameters of cleanliness but India is certainly cleaner now than it was five years ago. The Infrastructure growth has been phenomenal and both road and air connectivity has improved. The UDAN scheme has resulted a a number of smaller towns including, Pondicherry, where this blogger resides, becoming linked. The fact that there has not been a single major instance of corruption itself is a testimony to Good Governance. However, in a country like India, Good Governance and Corruption free Administration are not guarantors of electoral victory. How else can we explain the defeat of the Atal Behari Government in 2004. the victory of Lalu Prasad Yadava in Bihar and the repeated successes of DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
The Modi Government ignored some of the core issues of the constituents. The fact is that school text books still retain the same nonsense from the days of the UPA shows that the Central Government lacks the intellectual strength to take the task of rewriting the text books head on. Also the Government has prevaricated over the Ram Temple issue. The issue has now boiled down to a title suit over the disputed site in Ayodhya and there are some like Dr Subramanian Swamy who have been calling for an Ordinance on the issue. Prime Minister Narendar Modi has ruled out an Ordinance on the issue. It is unlikely that the Ram Temple issue will have a decisive impact as people are aware of the fact that a premature declaration of intent will be challenged in the Courts and the matter will rest there for years to come. The recent Constitutional Amendment, the 124th Amendment, by which the institutionalized Identity Politics that prevailed for over 70 years has been given a death blow. The poor of the Upper Castes who were deprived of their share of jobs and educational opportunities will now drift toward the BJP and this segment will prove decisive in North India.
Does the Opposition unity augur ill for the BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP bagged 73 seats in 2014 and in May this number will come down by atleast 20 to 25. The electoral pact between the Samjwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati is not going to be a great threat to the BJP as the SC votes promised by Mayawati will not trasfer to the SP. BJP will win around 50 seats here provided the Party is able to sell its not inconsiderable achievements to the people. In Bihar, Madhya Pradesh Rajastan, and smaller states like Uttarakhand and Chatisghar the BJP faces an uphill task.
All over I predict that the bJP will get around 230 to 240 seats. It will not be the single largest Party. In Maharashtra with 40 seats, the BJP will face a recalcitrant Siva Sena. In Tamil Nadu except the seat held by Pon Radha Krishnan I dont see any chance.
This was written before the Pulwama Attack
The General Election that are due in 2019 are crucial for India. On the one hand we have the rumblings of discontent from sections of the rural population and on the other we have the gradual consolidation of fragmented political forces uniting under the banner of a "Great Coalition" or Maha Gattabandhan. What will be the BJP's strategy under these changed circumstances. We must also note that in the three major Assembly Elections held recently, the BJP lost all three without however, surrendering its vote share The BJP strategists have an unenviable task: they have to forge a winning strategy in a situation in which the NDA Government faces a double whammy: the consolidation of Opposition parties and the anti incumbency which is rising by the day. Since the BJP has a formidable election machinery it will be in a position to worst these challenges, but it needs thought.
The record of the BJP Government has not been bad, in spite of what the Indian Mainstream Media may say. The policies of the Central Government have had a direct bearing on the life and Livelihood of large sections of the Indian poor. The recently launched Health Insurance Scheme, in spite of its teething troubles, is a resounding success. The rural poor have benefited from this Scheme and like all other Schemes of the Government it is linked to ADHAR and is based on the direct transfer of funds from the Central Government to the Hospital in which the patient is treated. The financial inclusion project of the Government has enabled a large number of people to be drawn into the banking network and it is likely that, if the BJP returns to power, it will announce a universal household income to all eligible poor. This policy, may however, result in the gradual phasing out of subsidies. The Swachch Bharat Scheme is undoubtedly a grand success. It may not have met all the parameters of cleanliness but India is certainly cleaner now than it was five years ago. The Infrastructure growth has been phenomenal and both road and air connectivity has improved. The UDAN scheme has resulted a a number of smaller towns including, Pondicherry, where this blogger resides, becoming linked. The fact that there has not been a single major instance of corruption itself is a testimony to Good Governance. However, in a country like India, Good Governance and Corruption free Administration are not guarantors of electoral victory. How else can we explain the defeat of the Atal Behari Government in 2004. the victory of Lalu Prasad Yadava in Bihar and the repeated successes of DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
The Modi Government ignored some of the core issues of the constituents. The fact is that school text books still retain the same nonsense from the days of the UPA shows that the Central Government lacks the intellectual strength to take the task of rewriting the text books head on. Also the Government has prevaricated over the Ram Temple issue. The issue has now boiled down to a title suit over the disputed site in Ayodhya and there are some like Dr Subramanian Swamy who have been calling for an Ordinance on the issue. Prime Minister Narendar Modi has ruled out an Ordinance on the issue. It is unlikely that the Ram Temple issue will have a decisive impact as people are aware of the fact that a premature declaration of intent will be challenged in the Courts and the matter will rest there for years to come. The recent Constitutional Amendment, the 124th Amendment, by which the institutionalized Identity Politics that prevailed for over 70 years has been given a death blow. The poor of the Upper Castes who were deprived of their share of jobs and educational opportunities will now drift toward the BJP and this segment will prove decisive in North India.
Does the Opposition unity augur ill for the BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP bagged 73 seats in 2014 and in May this number will come down by atleast 20 to 25. The electoral pact between the Samjwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati is not going to be a great threat to the BJP as the SC votes promised by Mayawati will not trasfer to the SP. BJP will win around 50 seats here provided the Party is able to sell its not inconsiderable achievements to the people. In Bihar, Madhya Pradesh Rajastan, and smaller states like Uttarakhand and Chatisghar the BJP faces an uphill task.
All over I predict that the bJP will get around 230 to 240 seats. It will not be the single largest Party. In Maharashtra with 40 seats, the BJP will face a recalcitrant Siva Sena. In Tamil Nadu except the seat held by Pon Radha Krishnan I dont see any chance.
