The Political Scenario for the BJP in the run up to May 2019 General Elections

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

This was written before the Pulwama Attack

The General Election that are due in 2019 are crucial for India. On the one hand we have the rumblings of discontent from sections of the rural population and on the other we have the gradual consolidation of fragmented political forces uniting under the banner of a "Great Coalition" or Maha Gattabandhan. What will be the BJP's strategy under these changed circumstances. We must also note that in the three major Assembly Elections held recently, the BJP lost all three without however, surrendering its vote share The BJP strategists have an unenviable task: they have to forge a winning strategy in a situation in which the NDA Government faces a double whammy: the consolidation of Opposition parties and the anti incumbency which is rising by the day. Since the BJP has a formidable election machinery it will be in a position to worst these challenges, but it needs thought.

The record of the BJP Government has not been bad, in spite of what the Indian Mainstream Media may say. The policies of the Central Government have had a direct bearing on the life and Livelihood of large sections of the Indian poor. The recently launched Health Insurance Scheme, in spite of its teething troubles, is a resounding success. The rural poor have benefited from this Scheme and like all other Schemes of the Government it is linked to ADHAR and is based on the direct transfer of funds from the Central Government to the Hospital in which the patient is treated. The financial inclusion project of the Government has enabled a large number of people to be drawn into the banking network and it is likely that, if the BJP returns to power, it will announce a universal household income to all eligible poor. This policy, may however, result in the gradual phasing out of subsidies. The Swachch Bharat Scheme is undoubtedly  a grand success. It may not have met all the parameters of cleanliness but India is certainly cleaner now than it was five years ago. The Infrastructure growth has been phenomenal and both road and air connectivity has improved. The UDAN scheme has resulted a a number of smaller towns including, Pondicherry, where this blogger resides, becoming linked. The fact that there has not been a single major instance of corruption itself is a testimony to Good Governance. However, in a country like India, Good Governance and Corruption free Administration are not guarantors of electoral victory. How else can we explain the defeat of the Atal Behari Government in 2004. the victory of Lalu Prasad Yadava in Bihar and the repeated successes of DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.

The Modi Government ignored some of the core issues of the constituents. The fact is that school text books still retain the same nonsense from the days of the UPA shows that the Central Government lacks the intellectual strength to take the task of rewriting the text books head on. Also the Government has prevaricated over the Ram Temple issue.  The issue has now boiled down to a title suit over the disputed site in Ayodhya and there are some like Dr Subramanian Swamy who have been calling for an Ordinance on the issue. Prime Minister Narendar Modi has ruled out an Ordinance on the issue. It is unlikely that the Ram Temple issue will have a decisive impact as people are aware of the fact that a premature declaration of intent will be challenged in the Courts and the matter will rest there for years to come. The recent Constitutional Amendment, the 124th Amendment, by which the institutionalized Identity Politics that prevailed for over 70 years has been given a death blow. The poor of the Upper Castes who were deprived of their share of jobs and educational opportunities will now drift toward the BJP and this segment will prove decisive in North India.

Does the Opposition unity augur ill for the BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP bagged 73 seats in 2014 and in May this number will come down by atleast 20 to 25. The electoral pact between the Samjwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati is not going to be a great threat to the BJP as the SC votes promised by Mayawati will not trasfer to the SP. BJP will win around 50 seats here provided the Party is able to sell its not inconsiderable achievements to the people. In Bihar, Madhya Pradesh Rajastan, and smaller states like Uttarakhand and Chatisghar the BJP faces an uphill task.

All over I predict that the bJP will get around 230 to 240 seats. It will not be the single largest Party. In Maharashtra with 40 seats, the BJP will face a recalcitrant Siva Sena. In Tamil Nadu except the seat held by Pon Radha Krishnan I dont see any chance. 

The Autobiography of Sashi Deshpande: An Award Wapsi Looks Back

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Indians do not write autobiographies or for that matter good History. The ability to reflect on the fleeting moments of time which constitute our lives and seize that moment even as it dissolves, is the stuff of History and autobiographers choose to locate their puny little lives against the grand events that unfold before their eyes, trying to find meaning for their existence. The Indian tradition of both autobiography and History is the katha, the oral narrative, a story. Sashi Despande has caught this peculiarity of Indian psyche by calling her autobiography,  Listen to Me. 

Sashi Deshpandeis the daughter of the well known Kannada writer and playwright, Shriranga. and she carries the burden of her father's astounding literary legacy rather lightly. Belonging to an educated Deshasta family from Karnataka with her family on maternal side having ties with Pune.

Add Listen to Me

 Her father was a teacher of Sanskrit in a well known college in Dhrawad where she was born and educated. It appears that her father had some vague sympathy for the fashionable leftist causes and hence lost his job and family suffered considerable humiliation as a consequences. Living on the handouts of well off relatives is not a pleasant experience and Sashi's early childhood memories are marred with such slights. Her sister studied medicine and her brother went on to get a Ph D in Physics from the University of Pennsylvania, USA. However tragedy was snapping at the heels and her brother lost his mind and died in NIMHANS, Bangalore. She writes about the events in her life with a sense of detachment and even candour. However, her autobiography reads like an extended Curriculum Vitae dwelling  on her external life-- the books she has written, the awards she received, the famous people she encountered and the literary impact she made in the field of Indians Writing in English. There is little about her personal life and the only character whom she allows us to meet from her life is her father. She even mentions that in a letter discovered after his death, her father wanted his children to stand on their own legs, a statement she promptly dissects using the categories of gender so popular today.

Being the wife of a successful doctor meant travel and she did not have to earn her livelihood and after the birth of her two sons she decided to dedicate herself entirely to writing. She penned 11 novels and a large number of short stories and she won the Sahitya Academy Award for her book, the Dark Holds no Terror. And  this brings us to her latest incarnation as an Awars Wapsi.

Sashi Deshpande is quite forceful in her denunciation of the Emergency and she also states that Rajiv Gandhi was to be blamed for the Sikh Riots that killed 5000 Sikhs in the national capital  after his mother was shot dead. These confessions are welcome as it established a certain authenticity in her work. However, as in the case of other Award Wapsi heroes her decision to return the Sahitya Academy Award was motivated by personal ties with Professor M M Kalburgi who was killed by unknown assailants. A tendency to blame the Right Wing for  all unfortunate events has become the credo of the so called Indian Intellectual. She rushed to return her award and was, of course , hailed as a great conscience keeper of the Loony Left

In spite of such unthinking forays into the public realm, this book is an interesting read. At least it is readable and there are occasional flashes of insight. While she does reflect on the plight of brahmins in India she does not denounce the discrimination that shadows them.

What China and India Once were: The Pasts that May Shape the Global Future A Review

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

What China and India Once Were: The Pasts the May Shape the Global Future
Ed, Sheldon Pollock and Benjamin Elman
New York: Columbia University Press
2018.

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Sheldon Pollock has waded into far too many controversies in India, and I must say that his interventions have served no purpose whatsoever except to distract people from the seminal contribution he made to the study of Indian Literary Culture and History in his Language of the Gods in the World of Men. Unfortunately, Sheldon Pollock has become a highly divisive public figure and his broadsides against India and its politics are not his primary call for attention. He is a distinguished scholar and the book edited by him and Benjamin Elman are important interventions in the study of the histories and pasts of China and India.

China and India share a common historical trajectory. Both were highly sophisticated civilizations with a long tradition of scholarship: Mandarin in the case of China and Sanskrit in the case of India. Both were victims of foreign conquest and both civilizations had to deal with questions of political legitimacy, administrative control, protecting the frontiers. While China realized quite early that the Steppes of Central Asia posed a considerable challenge to the stability of the Middle Kingdom and constructed the Great Wall as a physical barrier against invasion, Indian rulers unfortunately had no such wisdom. India was easy to invade as the path to the Gangetic Plain was open to any invader who crossed the Hindu Kush Mountains. China dealt with its perennial problem of devastating floods by constructing the Grand Canal which connected the Yellow River with the Yangtze River, running across China for a length of more than 1800 kilometers. Remarkably this waterway was completed as early as the Tang Period , in the 9th century. Significantly, the new capital Beijing was now accessible to the grain growing areas of southern and central China. Indian dynasties hardly encouraged any construction of comparable social utility and value. The Mughals the contemporaries of the Ching and earlier the Ming were content building tombs and the Timurid rulers though blessed with both curiosity and insight did not attempt anything quite so spectacular. Obviously, there are historical reasons for the difference.

The book reviewed herein looks at a variety of cultural practices from a comparative perspective. Flora and Fauna and its social value in China and India form an interesting part of the first chapter. The elephant became extinct in China fairly early in its history. whereas in India it flourishes until this day. Though none of the rulers seem to have had a conscious conservation policy, India attitudes towards nature was far more reverential than in China. Long distance trade was encouraged at least till the end of the Ming Era. In India, the long coast line spawned a range of communities which specialized in long distance trade: the Kutchi merchants and the Chettiyars come to ones mind immediately.

The advent of modernity both in India and China are beset with both conceptual and historiographical issues. The periodization derived from western perceptions defy smooth transition both in the case of India and China. It is now recognized that both these Asian giants are now re-entering the Global Economy and if Sheldon Pollock is to be believed on their own terms. China has completely transformed its economy while India still struggles with the age old issues of caste hierarchies social problems and of course poverty. China has succeeded in areas in which India has failed miserably. The One Party system seems to have helped China and India's raucous rowdy democracy has been a drag on the energies of the nation. Perhaps the time has come to rethink the developmental paradifms embraced by these two Nations.

One point on which the book is extremely insightful is the History and its uses in both these countries. China developed a strong tradition of writing Local and Dynastic History from the early Han Dynasty. In India, Historiography did not make much headway until the arrival of the Turks who brought with them their own models of Historical texts. Perhaps the lack of critical thought except in the speculative areas of Linguistics and Philosophy may have inhibited the development of Historical ideas in India.

This is a good book and policy makers interested in India and China must read it.

Politics over Sardar Patel's Legacy

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Patel Statue

There is no gainsaying the fact that History is being re visited today in India. Since Independence the State has propagated a version of history which, while serving the needs of the politically dominant party, the Indian National Congress and its central dynasty.has left a large number of gaping holes in the Narrative. Foremost is the question whether the Indian National Congress did enough to prevent Partition and its huge cost in terms of human life and suffering. Second, if Partition was inevitable as the "historians" of Jawaharlal Nehru University and the Leftist acolytes argue, can they tar all those who opposed Partition as "communal" elements "reactionaries" "obscurantists" and the list is endless. One reason for the lack of diversity in contemporary Historiography of India is the fact that the historical profession has been prevented from reassessing the role of the Indian National Congress in the Struggle for Indian Independence. The recent attempts on the part of the Modi Government to draw attention to the contribution of Netaji Subash Chandra Bose and Sardar Vallabha Bhai Patel are step in the right direction.

First the Statue. One of the many canards that are being spread by the mainstream media is that Modi seeks to "appropriate" the legacy of Sardar Patel. It is unclear hos the mere dedication of a National Monument is appropriation of a legacy. Also there are those in the Congress party who say that since the Patels are restive and are no longer the backbone of the BJP in Gujarat, Modi is seeking to assuage Patel Asmita or Pride. Reducing Patel to a mere icon of caste identity is to distort and undermine the stature of Patel. But then who has ever accused the Indian National Congress and the Dynastic Fascists of caring for people's sentiments or historical accuracy.  The fact is the Nrendra Modi proposed the Memorial to Sardar Patel in 2010 long before he became Prime Minister and in 2010 there was no sign of Modi emerging as the Prime Minister of India. By distorting the very chronology there is attempt to politicize the Monument. Construction began in 2013 and this was also before Modi became the Prime Minister. Projecting History backwards in a teleological arrangement is the favorite tactic of the JNU bran of Historiography and of course, give it a political spin to make that distortion resonate with "progressive" opinion.

Then the cost. The cost of the memorial works out to be 2854 crores. A huge sum of money. The justification for this spectacular Monument lies in the manner in which Patel was treated. A fact that is little recognized in modern Historiography of India is that Patel was chosen by 12 out of 15 Provincial Congress Committees to head the Congress in 1946 and would have become Prime Minister in the Interim Government. Nehru forced Gandhi to seek the resignation of Patel. A repeat of the Bose fiasco all over and given the enormous respect Patel had for Gandhi he stepped aside and let Nehru become the Prime Minister. This singular fact is hidden from History. Further, as the first Home Minister of Independent India, Patel welded the fractious assemblage of princely states into a united country using a subtle blend of tact and force. Junagadh and Hyderabad are good examples of Patel's strategic thinking. The only state/riyasat that was out of Patel's purview was Kashmir which was handled by Nehru directly and it continues to fester till this day. Patle wrote a letter to Nehru about the designs of China and this too Nehru ignored. Further, Nehru the patrician educated in the White Man's land treated Patel with open hostility and took delight in publically humiliating the great statesman. This factor contributed to the early death of Patel in 1950 and Nehru went on to live for 14 long years after the exit of India's saviour. Given this History, there is need to rehabilitate the Memory of this great Statesman. Nehru awraded himself the highest civilian honour, the Bharat Ratna and many in India seek to have that honour revoked. Sardar was honoured on in 1991 during a brief respite from the pestilence called dynastic rule.

Netaji Subash Chandra Bose remains an enigmatic personality in Indian History. He created the Indian National Army out of the prisoners of war captured by the Japanese in Singapore and turned them into a major force to liberate India. There is no doubt, as Clement Atlee said that it was the Indian National Army that finally convinced the British to leave India after the War. And again Netaji was forgotten. In fact Nehru even conspired with the Soviets to have Netaji declared a "war criminal". The alacrity with which Nehru declared that Netaji had died in the plane crash in August 1945 shows that Nehru was not interested in Netaji returning back to India. The return of Netaji would have meant the end of Nehru's dream of founding a Dynasty and keeping the Office of Prime Minister within his family. Modi rightly acknowledged Netaji's contribution by raising the National Flag on the ramparts of the Red Fort. Finally the fact that Netaji established the First Government of a  Free Independent and United India has been recognized.

Thus there is a great deal of scope for a revision of the dominant hegemonic discourse on modern Indian History. The congress centric narrative rests on distortions evasions and hagiography. It is time to change that and Narendar Modi has begun the task.