The Electoral Prospects of the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The time has come to look back at the campaigns ans see where the Nation is heading towards in the forthcoming General Elections. The campaign  of the Congress centering around the dynastic mascot, Rahgul Gandhi, is surprisingly sharp and focused. The Assured Income scheme launched in the Manifesto is both innovative and attractive. By guaranteeing a minimum income of 72, 000 per family for a year as income support the Congress has created some ripples. Given the state of public journalism in India, the scheme has not attracted the kind of attention it deserves. The BJP brushed this scheme aside. However, the tax burden on the middle class will increase dramatically if this scheme is introduced and it will add to the inflationary woes. For the past 5 years India has seen 8% growth with around 3.5% Inflation. If the Congress comes to power Inflation will sky rocket and growth will plummet. What needs to be done is to work out the benefits already rolled out by the Modi Government to the people and make a comparative assessment.

Except for the one innovative policy measure, the dynastic fascists have run a highly divisive vituperative invective laden campaign. Modi was attacked in every possible manner. His Mother, Family, his personality were all viciously attacked to little effect. The more he was attacked the greater the popularity. Rahul even went to the extent of saying "Chowkidar Chor hai". The watchman is a thief, an attempted rebuke that was transformed into a splendid statement of approbation with people from all walks of life adding the word Cowkidar to their names. In the last General Elections Mani Shankar Ayer's jibe directed against Modi turned out to be a vote getter and this time if Modi is now set to trounce the Congress, the credit should go to Rahul and his meanly mouth jibe.

There is not a single allegation oc corruption against Modi. He has led, for the first time since Independent India, a Government that does not face a single charge. The Scams and Scandals of the Congress and its Allies have been the subject of numerous Inquires but given the state of the judiciary here in India, the prosecution has been tardy. Further, sections of the Judiciary seem to be playing footsie with the Congress as Chidambaram and his son havc secured bail 18 times already over the slew of cases they face. The entire Gandhi family is out on Bail facing serious fraud charges in the National Herald case. This case is one in which the entire property of the National Herald, a Congress Newspaper, was acquired by the first family of the Congress contrary to the rules and law presently in place.The eviction has been stayed by the Supreme Court. Yet another instance of the judiciary playing footsie with the Congress. The Higher Judiciary seems to be a partner in the UPA and it is fast losing the respect of the Nation

In spite of all these, the Congress and its allies are headed for a decisive defeat. Kamalnath, the Chief Minister of Madhya  Pradesh was caught in the Augusta Westland Scandal as some of the money got as kickbacks was recovered from his aides. The Pulwama Attack was sought to be politicized by Rahul and his associates. They wanted proof of the Attack implying that the Government was lying about the Balakot Air Strike. For the first time the Armed Forces became a factorin domestic political squabbles. And the Congress sought in vain to  turn the needle of suspicion on Modi and failed.

The North East will see a resurgent BJP and in Mamta's  Bengal the BJP has made significant inroads. Orissa will see a BJP victory in around 8 constituencies with a hung assembly and in nearby Andhra Pradesh the Jagan Mohan Reddy outfir is set to weep and BJP may win just 2 seats in AP. Tamil Nadu is always a difficult state to study as people show very erratic voting behaviour. BJP may win the Kanya Kumari seat, the Coimbatore seat and has a fighting chance in Ramanathapuram. We know that Kartok Chidambaram and Tirumavalavan will not taste electoral success.

At an all India level it would be safe to predict that Narendra Modi will form the next Government with the NDA getting around 315 seats.

The Festival of Democracy in India: Pranoy Roy and Navin Chawla

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

India is the world's largest Democracy and in spite of the antics of political parties like the Congress,, DMK, the Communist factions and identity based political groups like the Akali and the Muslim League. And that is not a mean achievement in itself. Navin Chawla, the well known biographer of Mother Theresa, has said in as many words that the Election Commission of India is the real pillar of Indian democracy. He may not be off the mark as the Election Commission is universally feared by political parties across the political spectrum. Its ability to enforce a modicum of discipline in the conduct of elections shows that what it lacks by means of man power it makes up with robust moral authority by establishing its absolute independence from the Executive. The book Every Vote Counts: The Story of India's Elections is a racy highly readable gallop across all General Elections starting from 1952. He documents in rich details the trials and tribulations faced by the Election Commission in the early years under Sukumar Sen. The Election Commission has insisted on a set of practices in order to make the election process free and fair and the Model Code of Conduct in one such measure. There has been frequent allegations that the EVMs ( Electronic Voting Machines) are susceptible to hacking. This is an absurd allegation and given the fact that our political parties are filled with semi  literates such baseless allegations keep gaining traction come every election season. A stand alone machine manufactured to the specifications of the ECI by Bharath Electronic Corporation cannot be hacked as they are not connected to the internet and they are not compatible with blue tooth technology.

The Verdict: Decoding India's Election by the well known election analysts, Dr Pranoy Roy and Darob Sopariwala is a good introduction to the delicate business of election forecasting. They have done a commendable job of looking at the aggregate data relating to General Elections. Does Incumbency provide an advantage to the sitting MP. Do voters vote for political parties or on the basis of their perception of the merit of the candidates contesting. Do political parties decide on candidates on the basis of the winnability or other factors. Does party and its ideology play a major role in determining the outcome. What is the SWING factor and how can it be measured. How do votes get translated into seats. What are the major advantages and disadvantages of the first past the winning post system that we have. A major disappointment in the book is that it does not address the important issue of proportional representation. How does turn out on election day help or hinder the outcome. All these issues are discussed in great detail with a plethora of facts, tables and analyses.

Both these books must be read by everyone interested in Indian politics, particularly the Election process. Navin Chawla raised a very important point in his book and that needs to be further researched. There is no reference to political parties in the Constitution of India. In legal terms a political party has the status of an unincorporated Association. What kind of  democracy was envisaged by the founders and if we remember that Gandhi wanted the Congress to be dissolved, it is certain that the founders had a partyless democracy in mind. We have move a long way from that ideal.

Both these books are worth a read. Lucidly written and with a faint touch of humour I commend these writers for their worthwhile contributions.

FLIGHT OF DEITIES AND THE REBIRTH OF TEMPLES

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Flight of Deities and Rebirth of Temples
Meenakshi Jain
Aryan Books International, New Delhi 2019.

One of the most tragic and neglected aspects of medieval historiography of India is the fate of Hindu, Buddhist and Jaina Temples. Sita Ram Goel several years back addressed this issue and indicted the medieval rulers for following a political strategy of destroying Hindu places of worship and the systematic destruction od Hindu, Buddhist and Jaina centres of worship and pilgrimage, he argues was party of the political and imperial ideology stemming from Islamic ideas of conquest and conversion of Darul Harb into Dar ul Islam, from Land of War to Land of Islam. Hence the destruction of Indian religious institutions cannot be view in isolation of the ideological underpinning of the Turkish, Afghan and Mughal rule over India. This interpretation was, of course, attacked by a whole host of historians from Alighr Muslim University, Delhi University and of course, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Is this interpretation a "communal" one or, even if not politically correct have the weight of historical evidence behind it.


The deliberate underplaying of Moslem vandalism in parts of India which were conquered may have been a political necessity in the years after Partition when Hindu Moslem tension were high and it was prudent to avoid contentious and identity laden issues. However, 70 years after Independence if the same platitudes are trotted out, it becomes necessary to re investigate the issue and assess the question on the basis of evidence. In short, the time for political correctness is past and it is time to seize the historical moment even as it disintegrates before our very eyes. Meenakshi Jain has produced a scholarly and eminently well researched work on this question. She starts where Sita Ram Goel left and her work is a fitting riposte to all those historians who live in a state of denial about the tragedy the befell India. After reading the work under review it will not be possible for anyone either to deny the political underpinning of the reign of vandalism unleashed against Hindu and other Indian religious structures or belittle the cultural and civilizational chaos it engendered.

One argument that white scholars like Richard Davis and Richard Eaton are quick to advance is that the Turks, Afghans and Mughals did not indulge in any sort of vandalism and destruction which Indian rulers had not done in the past. This line of argument is absolutely incorrect as there is not a single instance in which a ruler of India be he Jain, Buddhist as Harsha or Hindu/Shiva like Rajendra subjected the images captured for religious sites and appropriated for relocation in their own imperial repertoire ever showed an attitude of anything less than reverence. Thus when Krishnadevaraya captured Udayagiri and acquired the green granite Balarama image, he had a Krishna temple constructed in his capital, Vijayanagara, and had the image installed with reverence. Similarly, when Rajendra Chola brought back the image of Durga from the territories of the Western Chalukyas he had it enshrined in his new capital, Gangaikonda cholapuram. Such example can be multiplied. However after the Islamic conquest, temples were detroyed and the sanctity of the temple violated by the shedding of blood and was usually accompanied, as was the case with the Vaishnava Temple of Srirangam, a whole sale massacre of the temple priests. To deny the cold facts of history, recorded in the medieval Chronicles is to deny the very validity of History as a field of study.

Meenakshi Jain has produced a fine piece of historical research. It is true that the academic climate for a free investigation of India's tangled and tortured past has opened up only recently and I fervently hope that historians of India cease to function as servitors of political parties, start researching the past without fear or favour.

:The Mullaperiyar The Dam that Divided Two States Water War: A Review

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Mullaperiyar: Water War The Dam That Divided Two States
Pradeep Damodaran
Rupa,2014

Water War

The Water War is a journalistic account of the political and ethnic clashes that broke out in Kerala and Tamil Nadu over the sharing of the water of the Periyar River. The Mullaperiyar Dam which was built across the Periyar has become a bone of contention between Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The water from the Periyar river which has been diverted by the Mullaperiyar Dam irrigates several thousand acres of agricultural land in the five southern districts of Tamil Nadu including Madurai, and Ramanathapuram. Indeed  the prosperity of the five districts rests on the water supplied by the Mullaperiyar Dam. The book under review is an extremely biased and ill informed work which dwell on the political and ethnic side of the conflict overlooking the legal and the historical aspects of the dispute. The Supreme Court of India has declared the 118 year old dam to be safe and Kerala politicians keep raising the fears of the people regarding the safety of the Dam. In fact the Iddukki Dam acts as a safety valve for the Mullaperiyar Dam and in the unlikely event of the Dam bursting or breaching much of the water will be held back by the downstream dam. This vital fact is not brought out even as politicians in Kerala vie with each other to raise public fears about the safety of the Dam, And Pradeep Damodaran a Malayalam speaking Keralite residing in Coimbatore avoids this issue even as he documents the plight of Tamil pilgrims caught  in the turmoil and passion unleashed by the Dam. There is absolutely no damage or structural weakness in the masonry work and the Central Irrigation Commission has also certified that the dam is safe.

The Mulaperiyar Dam is a technological marvel and it is the first complete basin transfer project ever attempted in the world.  The map given below represents in some detail the Periyar Project. First, was the construction of a dam in close proximity to the valley to store 300,000 acre feet of water, The excess water is led through a series of spillways through a tunnel into the Vaigai River. Interestingly enough there is evidence of medieval waterworks in the area which suggests that the tributary of Periyar called Surulli was being used in the medieval period as well. The total area irrigated by this dam was around 85,000 acres. The project was first suggested by Major Ryves in 1867 wascompleted by John Pennycuick who was resposible for designing the thick masonary dam. The cross section of the wall is given below to show the technical sophistication of the dam. The headworks that distributed the war of the Periyar into the Vaigai Basis was extremely intricate and I have given the plan below.

Plan of the Headworks

Add ccross section a

The book under review is extrmrly weak on the historical and social and economic context of the dam. He the author keeps harping on the fact that the lease over the Dam extends to 999 years. He fails to understand that in Anglo Saxon law perpetual lease was couched in that language.

It is time to rethink Partition of the Indian Subcontinent

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Partition of the Indian Subcontinent by the British Government of Atless and the Congress Party headed by Jawaharlal Nehru left behind a trail of blood gore and bitterness. The fact that the Congress under Nehru was impatient for power left little time for a settled peaceful and civilized transition of power. Nehru exultant speech about his "tryst" with destiny insults  the victims of Partition on both sides of the Border. Gandhi in his own way tried to preserve the Unity of India by offering the Prime Ministership to Jinnah. It was the utter obscenity for political office that made Nehru reject the suggestion and though the Congress Working Committee rejected Jawahrlal Nehru as the candidate for prime Minister , Gandhi the doddering dutch Uncle of Jawaharlal Nehru ensured that the opposition to Nehru's elevation is brushed aside and his chosen favorite mounted the throne.

During the run up to Partition, especially during the Cripps Mission a number of important proposals were put forward which aimed at preserving the Unity of the country. The Congress which was wedded to a short sighted policy of agitational  politics rejected the Cabinet Proposals with disastrous effect on the unity and integrity of India. The hang over of the triumphalist approach to Indian History, the one associated closely with Bipan Chandra and his acolytes, avoids all difficult issues pertaining to the Nationalist/Partition Movement. The political errors in mass resignation after India's entry into World War II, the bringing forward of the date of Freedom from June 1948 to August 1947 all contributed to the chaos that ensued and in the process the mistakes and false strategies used by the Congress Party were neither questioned nor assessed. In fact anyone questing the politics of the Congress was labeled "Communal" and hence important questions were neglected.

It is time to pick up the threads from where they were left in 1947. A set of Constitutional proposals need to be debated in order to reduce the hostility between India and Pakistan.Since the creation of Pakistan was based on identity, the Muslims of India and the Hindus of Pakistan should be given the right to choose their homeland and the respective populations can be made voters in their respective Nations of choice. Thus a Hindu from Pakistan or Bangladsh can be a voter in India and a Moslem if he so chooses can ve a voter for Pakistan. Thus this proposal unshackles Partition. A joint Constitutional Council with shared Sovereignty will be the Governing Council and the Military of both countries brought under a common command on the basis of mutual agreement.

These proposals will effectively put an end to partition, solve the Kashmir dispute and help put these two benighted societies on the way to prosperity.

Dr Anirban Ganguly in Pondicherry University

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books


Dr Syama Prasad Mookerji remains one of India's greatest intellectuals. And Pondicherry University was privileged to host a Distinguished Lecture by its present Director, Dr Anirban Ganguly. The Ministry of Human Resource Development of the Government of India has instituted a seies of Lectures on leadership under the Leadership Town hall Scheme. Under this scheme Dr Ganguly visited our University and gave a scintillating Lecture of 50 minutes that held the rapt attention of everyone. In the battle of ideas the vapid stale narrative of the Left has occupied a dispropotionate space in public discourse and the marginalized voices of dissenters like Dr Anirban Ganguly and others have not been heard. Identity politics based on caste, language, community,religion occupy a great deal od attention. But the voice of sanity, reason and science are drowned out by the cacophony emanating from the misguided Left and its hangers on. Dr Anirban Ganguly's Lecture was a refreshing departure.

Dr Anirban Ganguly

The Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation is a Nationalist research organization which has been performing the stellar role of the dissident through much of the 70 years of Indian Independence when the voice from the margins was hardly heard. Public discourse meant singing hosannas to Nehru and the Congress Party and its family. The Left soon became part of this scheme of things as it was co opted by the Nehruvian state. The death of Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee soon after he was taken custody in Kashmir remains an enduring mystery. And Kashmir has been on the boil ever since.

Dr Anirban Ganguly dwelt on the positive changes that jave been introduced in India since the magnificent victory in 2014. It matters little if the so called intellectuals with their vested interest in maintaining the satus quo acknowledge the positive changes or not. The reduction of Corruption and the introduction of schemes that have worked for the common man were stressed by the speaker. In the field of foreign policy, the speaker drew pointed attention to the fact that the days when India did not react or punish the cross border acts of Terrorism are over and he spoke of the resolute manner in which the Government retaliated to the February 14th Pulwama Attack.

The Audience

He spoke of 5 principles that governed the foreign policy of the Government of India:
(1) Samvaad or consultation/consensus
(2) Samviddhi  or mutual concern
(3) Suraksha or Security
(4) Samskritti evam  Sabyata (Culture and Civilization) and
(5) Samaan Mutual Dignity.

These are the five major principles that govern Indian foreign policy and as can be expected there is not even lip service to the cowardly way of dealing with major attacks by sending candy floss files as did the UPA after the 26/11 attack that killed nearly 185 people in Mumbai alone. The reason why the Congress dominated regime was reluctant to name and shame Pakistan lay in their inclination to blame Saffron Terror for the attacks. Then capture of Kasaab by a police constable paid put to the devious designs of the dynastic fascists. After the February 14 th attack, the Nation was well aware that retribution would follow.

The many National Schemes introduced by the NDA Government have proves trans formative: the extension of cooking Gas scheme, the Ayuman Bharat Scheme, The Jan Dhan Yojana and many other schemes. The NDA Government has served India well and its service multifaceted and diverse qwere brought out by the speaker.

Madras Literary Society by N S Ramaswami : A Review

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and book

Madras Literary Society

Interior View

The Madras Literary Society founder in 1817 is one of the oldest Research Institutions in India, and perhaps like St. Mary's Church located in Fort Saint George, which is the oldest Anglican Church outside of England, this society ranks as a pioneering institution. There are references in the Early Chronicles of the East India Company to a House of Curiosities called the Pantheon, perhaps the eponymous road in Egmore preserves that memory. 

One of the strategies employed by the western world to enhance the reach of knowledge and gather the information about the world at large was through the establishment of Learned Societies. Charles II was the founder of the Royal Society and the model of having an institution which linked networks of commerce, shipping, military and scientific expeditions was keenly replicated in the territories of the East India Company. Thus Penang, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong all sprouted Royal Societies dedicated to the pursuit of archaeological and historical research. In this we may regard the Madras Literary Society as a pioneer.

The building in which the present Institution stands was probably built in the middle of the nineteenth century. The Society itself was much older. The precincts of the Madras Literary Society, along side the Kovum, was shared in part by the Directorate of Public Instruction which was mandated in the Charter Act of 1833 and the Madras Observatory which was one of the pioneers in the emerging science of Meteorology. Goldhigham  who worked here for several years was in many ways a pioneer in celestial Astronomy. It is really wonderful that such a historic Institution is now gaining attention.

The Madras Literary Society started publishing a Journal from 1833 which grandly called itself the Madras Journal of Literature and Science. Lasting until 1894, this journal was a remarkable venture. Supported entirely by public subscription it published some of the best pieces of contemporary research. Unlike today's API driven academics, the early contributors were men and yes, occasionally women who asked difficult questions and pursued them with passion. One of the most remarkable character was Col Colin Mackenzie who collected Historical documents from the entire length and breadth of the Company territories and the Manuscripts were first housed here before they were shipped off to London. Rev Taylor a Chaplin of the Anglican Church who presided over St Georges Cathedral for some time prepared an excellent catalogue of these documents. The collection of antiquities which included a hoard of Roman coins discovered near the Nilgiris were transferred to the Museum.

The book recently republished by the Society is an excellent introduction to the multifarious intellectual activities of the MLS.