The last week has seen the histrionics between the two most corrupt political parties of India united by the ideology of dynastic fascism, the Congress and the DMK, engage in a bout of public posturing. Like thieves, who are partners in crime, both the political parties cannot afford to discard each other. The DMK is dependent on the Congress for survival in Tamil Nadu and the regime of Sonia-Singh is woeful;ly dependent on the support of the DMK MPs. Therefore one cannot exist without the other. The public declaration that the DMK has withdrawn support to the UPA regime is just that-- a declaration without any meaning. Given the fractured nature of the verdict in the last General Election, it is but natural that all major political parties in the state are attempting to stitch up an alliance. In this game, Ms Jayalalitha seems to have the advantage, at least for now. Her alliance with the mercurial and utterly unreliable Vijay Kant stems from the cold realisation that the vote bank of both is virtually the same and therefore it is in their mutual int erst to join forces. In the last Parliamentary election, Vijay Kant undecut the vote share of the AIADMK and by bringing him on board for a price of 100 crores, Jatyalalitha has stanched the hemeoraging of her vote share or so it appears. Like any mercenary, Vijay Kant is up for grabs. If the Congress offers him a better deal both in terms of seats and money, he will certainly leave the AIADMK alliance.
Will the DMK break with the Congress. As I have said both parties need each other. If the Congress following the line of the Yuvaraj, Rahul Gandhi, decided to go it alone then it will get just one IT two seats and this party is riven with factions. The man who calls himself Home Minister of India, P Chidambaram (this Harvard zero was defeated in the General Elections but got the returning officer to issue him the certificate) wants his son Karthik to succeed him and is doing everything to undermine the Congress. G K Vasan heads another faction inherited from his father G K Moopen. With factionalism rampant in the party and with a vote chare of 11-15% the Congress is hardly in a position to play hard ball.
The DMK is staring defeat in the face. The issue of Corruption will play a role, even though Tamil Nadu politics is a dirty cess pool of filth, corruption and crime. The DMK has a vote share of 29 to 31 % and hence if it enters into an alliance with a major Party it can hold on to power. However fighting alone the DMK will not be able to get a decent figure in terms of seats. The PMK like the DMK and teh Congress is a dynasty based political formation with a support base of Vanniyars in Northern Tamil Nadu. In Pondicherry because of the revolt of N Rangaswamy, the Vanniyar vote will go to the new party launched by N Rangaswamy and if AIDMK enters into an alliance with Rangaswamy, the NR-AIDMK alliance will grab power.
The next moves will be watched. Ground realities favor AIADMK and if it holds on to the Alliance and target the Karunanidhi Family rule for crime and corruption then the AIDMK has a chance. However, as we know the worst enemy of AIADMK is the General Secretary herself. Her inability to compromise with the smaller parties and her imperious style of functioning can alienate the electorate. I remember seeing her candidate fro a Parliamentry seat sitting on the stage on a plastic stool while she was seated on a splendid throne. The electorate did not like this scene.
If AIADMK is able to stitch up a good alliance then it has a chance of winning the upcoming polls.