Wednesday, January 18, 2012

UTTAR PRADESH PRADESH ELECTIONS; BAHU'S ANALYSIS

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books.

THe chattering class has found a bew topic to while away the time: the upcoming UP and 4 other state elections. The Congress Party is starting down the barrel of absolute defeat as it is unable to create even the semblance of fight against the other major players. The induction of Priyanka Vadra into the campaign shows that Dynasty obsessed fascism in the Congress is alive, well and has lulled that stupid party into thinking that by flounting a pretty face they can get back the base which was lost. Even the UP electorate has woken up to the fact that the Congress is concerned only about the survival of the Dynasty and nothing else. Priyanka will swing a few voted in the depripit pocket boroughs of the Congress, Amethi and Rae Berelly, and her presence will have zero impact. The Congress does not have a social base for itself in UP as the Upper caste Rajputs are with the Samajvadi Pary and the Dalits are with The Samajvadi Party has started its campaign by mobilising the so-called backward castes and the Muslim votebanks. Its emphasis on corruption and misgovernance will hardly find too many takers because Mulayam Singh Yadava's regime was notoriously goonda driven. There was no law and order during his tenure and people of UP remember his misgovernance and corruption. Further, like the Congress, Samajvadi is also turning into a dynastic fascist party with son Akilesh runnning the show like the yuvaraj. The BJP has started on a positive not and has more or less identified the key issues on whcih to fight the election. They have rightly cornered the Congress over the Muslim quota issue. They have highlighted the break down of the law and order and the rampant corruption in Mayawati's regime. It seems that the BJP will improve its tally but will fall short of a simple majority.

The election commission's order to cover the statues erected by Mayawati has been challenged by that clown Laloo Prasad Yadave by saying will they cover my "lantern". The statues were erected by wasting crores of people's money while the lanterns on the street are people's own private property and public money was not wasted on them. So there is need to have aperspective on these issues.

My analysis is that out of 403 seates, BJP will get aroung 98-100, BSP will get around 150-175, SP will get around 70-90 and smaller parties will divide the rs-est will Congress getting between 30-35 and Ajit Singh's Party getting 15- 20 seats in Western UP.

2 comments:

Bahu Virupaksha said...

Apparently the IB in its Report has come to the same conclusion that the BSP will get 160 seats just as I predicted.

N.K.Kumaresan Raja said...

Yes! Its a realistic prediction. But can you count on the median voters?