Tuesday, March 6, 2012

2012 Assembly Elections and their Implications

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The results of the 2012 Assembly Elections are finally out and just as I predicted the Congress was soundly routed in all states except Manipur. The defeat of the Congress in the politically significant states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh will have a bearing on the survival of the U PA regime in New Delhi. The dual headed hydra--Sonia and ManMohan--never the best of constitutional arrangement has been decisively rejected by the people. Even in Uttarkahnad the difference between the Congress and the BJP is only one seat and so the Congress cannot crow about its victory. Pretty Face, Rahul Gandhi, has been shown to be an electoral non-starter and with an encore performance as in Bihar, the significance of the "dynasty" in the politics of Northern India stands considerably diminished. I cannot say that the electorate has dealt a death blow to dynastic fascim as Akilesh Yadava, the son of Mulayam Singh Yadava has been given a mandate to rule and his only claim to fame is that he is the son of Mulayam Singh Yadava. Until the people of India learn to disregrad birth and lineage and start voting on the basis of the merits of the candidates on offer, India cannot be regarded as a mature democracy.

Rahul Gandhi behaved as if he has the right of birth to high office. The result has been a know-out blow to the pretensions of the Congress "yuvaraja". The coutriers that his young yuvaraja had gathered, the likes of Salman Kurshid, Digvijaya Singh, Beni Prasad Verma and others, all stand exposed. The Congress played the worst kind of identityu politics when they raised the bogey of "reservations " for Muslims knowing well that it will polorise the voters. The voters of UP have right;ly rejected identity politics based on religion. The defeat of Mayawati shows that even identiry politics based on caste was rejected by the UP voter. Rahuls behavior on the campaign trail was erratic to say the least. Throwing garlands back to the crowd something his grandmother used to do, did not go down well with the voters. He is just too young for this kind of patronizing conduct. Tearing up paper in public and other such gestures was not liked by the people. Above all his comment that people of UP are beggras who work in Mumbai has cost the Congress dear. I belong to Gorakhpur and do not like my people to be so characterized.

The victory of the Samajwadi Party will unleash the forces of caste goondaism in UP. The 5 years of Dalit rule has made people of UP politically aware and conscious and they will not take kindly to Yadava hegemony. I think there will be an increase in the social temperature in UP because of the victory of the Yadava dominated SP. The Muslims have returned to the SP this time round and so we can expect a great deal of communal violence in UP as a consequence of SP victory. I think the victory of the SP will soon be regretted by the people of UP. And the prospects for the survival of UPA II have sharply decreased as a result. The performance of the Congress is so bad that in the next Lok Sabha elections if we are to extrapolate from these results, Congress will win less than n6 seats.

The BJP fared very poorly though there has been a slight increase in the voting percentage. I think the choice of candidates was faulty because of factionalism Uma Baharathi tried her best and failed. I think the Party must craft a social coalition based on a unity between upper castes, backward Rajputs and dalits. Only such an orientation will help the BJP in the next General Election. In Punjab as I predeicted the Akalis and the BJP have won. The Congress stands humiliated. I do not know how the Congress could even hope to get Sikh votes after its crimian masscre of Sikhs in 1984. I hold the Congress Party responsible for this massacre and I think its leaders need to be punished. Anyway Punjab has redeemed itself by rejecting the Congress.

Political instability will now increase and I think India is headed for a poll in 2


Bahu virupaksha said...

The victory of the Samajwadi Party will unleash the forces of caste goondaism in UP.

Two years back I predicted the politcal outcome of the SP victory. The rapes and violence under the yadava dispensation is now before the whole world and the people of UP are tobe blamed for electing criminals like Mulayam and Mayawati,.

Bahu virupaksha said...

Congress will win less than n6 seats.
I was right in this prediction too.