Sunday, December 1, 2013

The Assemby Elections in India: The Prospects of the Congress and the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Assembly Polls in the five states--Rajastan, Chatiisghar, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi  and Mizoram--will soon be over and it is time to look at the possibilities or rather the chances of the two parties. For the BJP this is a make or break election as the Prime Ministerial candidate, Sri Narendra Modi was the chief campaigner in all the state save Mizoram. Any adverse result would be interpretted as a reflection on his electoral appeal and so also the case with the dynastic fascists, the Congress party. The Congress fielded Shri Rahul Gandhi as their main campaigner and once the ballot boxes are open the country will know the mood of the electorate. This election campaign was characterized by extremely low rhetoric from both sides and especially from the Congress party. The Congress "crown prince" Rahul Gandhi the inheritor of the family throne hurled abuses like "Chor" (thief), "lootere" (looters) and his mother, the Italian born Sonia, not to be out done referred to the BJP as "poison". Such rhetoric will hardly enthuse the voter and as we begin the run up to the 2014 Parliamentary Elections we expect the Congress to out do itself in the rhetorical sphere. The BJP responded to these flourishes of inspired invective with a sobriquet that caught the goat of the Congress Party: Shezada or Mughal Prince. Of course the title was used by Narendra Modi to address Rahul Gandhi who is also called Amul Baby by the Indian political class.

In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia ran a well organized campaign and was able to connect with the electorate on the twin issue of mis governance and corruption. The Dynastic Fascists appointed, Ashok Ghelot as their Chief Minister and his Cabinet was plagued with serious issue of crime and corruption from the word "go". The involvement of his cabinet colleague in the murder of a dalit woman who was also involved with another congress man threatened the regime as both the Gujjars and the dalits started distancing themselves from the Congress Party. The Congress started wooing the jats, the notoriously fickle and]self serving caste, by promising a 5% reservation in Government jobs. However, it is unlikely that this strategy will make much of a difference except in the Bharatpur region. The Congress went to town about its social welfare schemes,  but the schemes introduced were badly executed and ended up alienating more people. It is certain that the BJP will form the next Government under Vasundhara Raje Scindia.

In Madyha Pradesh, the Government of Shiraj Chuhan was a corrupt and infested with elements which were thriving off the Government contracts. The Timber Mafia has acquired a stranglehold over the state and people are aware of it. However, the Congress party with its internal factionalism and conflicts over ticket distribution was not able to put up a credible fight. The  senior congressman Dig Vijaya Singha was sideleined and the arc lights were on Jyotie Scindia, the son of Madhav Rao Sindhia and the nephew of Vijaya Raje. The price rise, inflation and the price of onions all came into paly in this election. The BJP was able to recover lost ground as Narendra Modi campaigned extensively in the state and the BJP is likely to come to power with a fairly good majority, but it will see a  drop in seats.

In Delhi the BJP changed its Chief Ministerial candidate mid way through the polls. Vijay Goel was repalced by Dr Harsh Vardhan Singh, a physician with a fairly good reputation as far as Indian politicians go. The Capital has seen a contest between the Congress and the BJP. This time with the entry of the AAM ADMI PARTY  of Arvins Khejriwal there is a triangular contest. The two major parties are both crying foul saying that the AAP is playing the spoiler and the BJP very effectively countered the influence of the AAP by asking people not tom waste their votes. It is likely that the BJP will win the state but the unfortunate presence of the AAP will make Government formation a trifle difficult. I would not be surprised if the AA{ splits after tjhe polls as the party is run on autocratic grounds with Arvind and Sissodia dominating the show.

In Chatiisghar, the massacre of May 2013 oeganized by a powerful faction within the Congress Party has made the job of the Congress Party extremely difficult. The Party tried to blame the BJP for the massacre and elicit sympathy, but the electorate in India knows exactly who was behind the attacks. Ajoit Jogi ran a lack lustree camapign and Dr Raman Singh will reemerge the victor.

In the elections the level of campaigning, especially byn the Congress Party fell to an all time low. Yet with all the negative campaign and personal attacks on Narendra Modi, the bJP will do well. 


Bahu virupaksha said...

The Exit Polls have confirmed to the letter my prediction made in this blog.

Bahu virupaksha said...

Now that the results are out, once again I was proved right in my prediction. I do not have fancy teams of surveyors and fancy number crunching gadgets like other psephologists but once again I have been right. I correctly predicted the BJP win in all four states, though in MP I expected the BJP to take a slight dip in numbers which did not happen.