Friday, May 16, 2014

"India has won": The implications of Narednra Modi's massive Electoral Victory, 2014

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Regular readers of my blog would have realized that I have always predicted a  Naredra Modi victory and my estimate even of the seats won by the BJP has proved to be accurate. The Congress party, just as I predicted lost and lost so badly that it does not even qualify for the Post of the Leader of the Opposition. It appears that the Electorate has voted decisively and such magnificent electoral mandates carry with them the danger of evaporating just as fast.  It is necessary to understand, grasp and analyze the el corruption was also election of 2014 as it will set the benchmark for several subsequent elections.

The BJP has become a National party in that in the elections just concluded the BJP has secured nearly 50% of the votes polled and in a Parliamentary form of Democracy this is massive. Second, the Party which had just 2 members in the Parliamentary Elections of 1984 has now secure on its own 282 seats and along with its allies reached the 332 mark. This means that Narendra Modi led Government will be strong ans stable and will not be subject to the politics of blackmail that bedeviled the Congress Regime. Infrastructure building ministries like Ports and Telecom were assigned to regional political parties and the 2G Spectrum scandal and the Coal Allocation Scandal were the direct outcome of coalition politics. Narendra Modi does not have that handicap and being personally incorruptible he will either keep these ministries with himself or assign them to an aide whose loyalty he is assured of.  The trust that Narednra Modi has made with  revolves around the promise of Developmenmt which will pull the country out of the morass of economic stagnation. The development will be financed by large Infrastructure projects and the return of investor confidence is crucial to the success of this project. The youth have voted overwhelmingly for Narendra Modi in the hope that his promise is delivered upon.

The fact is that the Congress led UPA regime apart from being embroiled in egregious corruption was also undermining the social fabric of the country by resorting to identity po9litics of the lowest kind. Every political decison was taken keeping the interests of the ruling party and its vote bank in sight. Narendra Modi now has the elbow room to stay away from identity politics. The Communal Violence bill is a good example of such misguided initiatives. In India it is well known that all previous instances of communal violence were instigated by the Congress party and even in the 2002 Riots for which Narendra Modi was blamed and eventually cleared, it was the Congress that participated in the large scale killings that went on. In fact nearly 200 Congressmen are facing the courts for their role in the riots. Under Narendra Modi social peace will prevail and that is what India needs at the moment. The statecraft of Narendra Modi is predicated upon economic issues and so will be driven by the need and desire for social and political calm. In fact the Indian ruppee has already started rallying withoing hours of the modi victory.

The Governance of the country, or to put it in the words of Modi, "minimum governance, maximum governance" will be based on extensive consultations will all the constitutionally mandated authorities. The National Development Council in which all the Chief ministers of the States are represented, will play an important role and to that extent the Planning Commission will be rendered redundant. Of course, planning will be necessary but that will be done on the basis of rational criteria. The Reserve Bank of India has changed the interest rates and the new Government will take steps to increase foreign trade and reduce the widening trade deficit,  Roads, Powers and Hi Speed Raiways will be give due importance and in all these the involvement of China will be welcome.

India;s foreign policy is in shambles. The previous regime did not pursue any kind of strategy in the pursuit of Indian foreign polcy. The Americans made it a habit to take India for granted in the name of the "strategic partnership". Under Narendra Modi the "look East " Policy will be firmly in place Perhaps the first country Narendra Modi will visit after taking office will be China. Narendra Modi has written extensively on the impressive economic growth of China and his development plank owes some of the boiler plate to China. With USA in terminal decline, nothing much can be expected.

The massive mandate will bring peace and to some extent prosperity to India both of which were massively dented by the Congress..

1 comment:

Bahu virupaksha said...

I was the first to predict that the National Development Coucil will play an important role in the statecraft of Narendra Modi.