The Challenge of the AAM ADMI PARTY; How to confront the Great White Hope of Indian Politics

A  look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Urban India is witnessing a novel political phenomenon: the rise and rise of the Aam Admi Party. The anti corruption movement launched by Anna Hazare was accompanied by a surge of civil society activism against corruption in India and the victory of the Aam Admi Party can be traced directly to the political consciousness roused by the movement of Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare. While the former supports the BJP under Hon'ble Narendra Modi as the political alternative, Anna Hazare decided to remain apolitical. His chosen disciple Arvind Khejriwal decided to break away and form a political party (the AAP) which rolled to power with the support of the Congress party and is now the ruling party in Delhi. It is time to assess the strengths of this new force and try to evaluate its impact on the 2014 Elections to the Lok Sabha. The BJP can ignore the AAP only at its own risk and must take steps to counter its appeal.

Until the victory of the AAP it was generally held that the BJP will emerge victorious in the 2014 General Elevtions with Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister. Now the picture is not that sanguine. primarily due to the politics of the Aam Admi Party. Led by a former Indian Revenue Officer, Shri Arvind Khejriwal (around 45 tyars old). the AAP seized control over the reins of Government in Delhi after the BJP declined to form the Government. The BJP won 32 seats, a few seats short of an absolute majority. The AAP after declaring publicly that it will not seek the support of the Congress, a party with a national notoriety for Crime, Corruption and Communalism, had no problem in getting the support of the Congress which is extending crucial support from outside the Government to sustain the Government. This arrangement is neither politically valid nor an ethical one as both Parties snipe at each other all the time and yet the Congress voted in favor of the APP in the Delhi assembly a few days back. I do not think this arrangement will last beyond a couple of months as the Congress will be badly dented if the AAP succeeds.

Arvind Kejriwal played to the gallery like a pro. He rode a metro train to the Capital to take the vote of Office at Delhi's Ram Lila Grounds where he sat on dharna along with his mentor. Such a populiost gesture went down well with the people who love to see their "High Officials" appear ordinary. What is forgotten is the fact that to keep the pretence of Arvind Khejriwal's pro poor image huge public expenditure was incurred in order to secure the metro route. A mere gesture, a nod in the direction of the common man, a supreme act of condescension is taken as proof of the simplicity and honesty of Arvind Khejriwal. Let us give him his moment.

The policy initiatives taken by the AAP even before it secured a vote of confidence is proof of the absolute disregard for the public exchequer. Announcing subsidies to the tune of 3, 500 crore rupees, the electricity bills of the consumers in New Delhi got some relief. However, the long term solution to the problem of energy pricing lies not in subsidies but in augmented power generation and the AAP has no clue as to what to do. Arvind Khejriwal is a mechanical engineer trained in IIT, Kharaghpur in West Bengal and he may have some idea of the problems inherent in his solutions.

The political phenomenon called the AAP is new to Indian politics. For long the political discourse has been dominated by issues of personality and identity. The AAP has shifted the discourse to issues concerning the common man: water, electricity, public safety, and corruption. The shift to a non identity based politics is welcome. However, it was Narendra Modi who shifted the emphasis on Governance rather than identity. The appeal of this new kid on the block to the post 1990's generation is obvious. Liberalism initiated by Narashima Rao in the 1990's has spawned a whole generation whose politics is shaped by live issues concerning everyday life and problems. The network created by the AAP during the heady days of the Anna Agitation paid huge dividents. The AAP was able to articulate the problems of the people of small neighbourhoods because it had a dedicated cadres working here. This networked interaction with localities using GIS and other sophisticated tools of analysis makes the AAP a viable force/ The bJP will do well to invest more tiem amnd energy in drawing out local issues spread over 532 Parliamentary consituencies instead of banking entirely on the charisma of Hon'ble Narendra Modi.

On balance, the AAP is certainly a new force but its alliance with the Congress will spell its doom.

Convicted Politicians, Rahul Gandhi and the outrage over the Ordinance

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Indian Government headed by Dr Man Mohan Singh sent an Ordinance to the President of India by which Indian politicians convicted of heinous crimes would not be disqualified from the membership of the State Assemblies and the National Parliament. The alarming rate at which criminals are entering the political process and getting elected to the seats of power has been commented upon by several public figures and there has been very powerful civil society movements too, The Supreme Court of India in a recent judgement said categorically that convicted politicians lose their seats and cannot continue in their elected positions. This judgement was widely seen as a small step in cleansing the stables of Indian politics of rapists, murderers and dacoits. Instead of welcoming this judgement, the Congress Party introduced a bill on parliament to undo the judegement. The strident opposition of the Bharatiya Janata Party forced the bill to be submitted to a special committee and the matter rested there. The fact is that an important ally of the UPA, a man called Laloo Prasad Yadava, a semi literate thug from Bihar is likely to be convicted in the Fodder Scam case whose judgement will be pronounced on the 30th of September 2013. In spite of having at least 4 prominent witnesses killed, the prosecution soldiered on and and the conviction of this fellow in on the cards.

In the forthcoming Parliamentary election which will be held by May 2014, the Congress and its allies will be wiped out as the Nation is sick and tired of the grand corruption that has taken by place. The minsters responsible for massive corruption have been shielded from prosecution a plaint Central Bureau of Investigation or the CBI whose Director was chastised by the Supreme Court of India for being a "caged parrot" of the powers that be. In the Coalgate Scam even the files implicating the Congress leaders who got coal blaocks allocated to them have disappeared from the custody of the Coal Minister, who happened to be the Prime Minster himself. The BJP in spite of a very messy leadership struggle is poised to win the upcoming electoral battle. The Congress Party pokes fun at the messy struggle involving the aging patriarch, L K Advani and Hon'ble Narendra Modi ignoring the sad fact that in the Congress party, dynastic fascism ensures that on one can aspire for a leadership position in the party except those born to the Nehru bloodline. This is highly primitive system of ensuring that the leadership remains within the "Royal Family" has contributed in no small measure to the degeneration of the political culture in India as it has made politicians cultivate factional loyalties and court family members in oder to ensure their visibility in the political arena. Unfortunately, the Congress political culture is being emulated by all the other corrupt political allies of the Congress like the DMK, the RJD and other "secular" parties.

It is against the back ground sketched above that we must see the "idealistic outburst " of Rahul Gandhi, the Crown Prince of the Congress party and the son of Sonia Gandhi the Italian widow of Rajiv Gandhi. When Man Mohan Singh was away on a visit to the USA to address the U N Genaral Assembly, Rahul Gandhi called a Press Conference and denounced the Ordinance awaiting Presidential assest as "nonsense" and deserves to be thrown out, Most political commentators felt that Man Mohan Singh stood dimnished as a result of the public rebuke administered by Rahul Gandhi. The Ordinance was sent to the President after it had been cleared by the Cabinet and had the backing of Rahul's mother, Sonia Gandhi. It is shameful that dynastic fascism has begun to undermine even the office of the Prime Minister. In the noise caused by Rahul's "idealistic: outburst what is firgitten is the fact that the President of India refused to sign the Ordinance and the real credit for scrapping the Ordinance should go to Shri Pranab Mukerjee, the Prersident of the Republic. Instead the pliant electronic and print media in India make it appear as if Rahul Gandhi's "idealistic" outburst had led to a rethink.

Certain trends are visible form this episode. First, there is a lot of factional strife going on in the Congress Party. Second, a very unhealthy precedent has been set: one in which the Crown Prince can make the Government of the day make a complete turnaround in its policy. There is no place for civilized political discourse in such a scenario. Even Arun Jailey, a senior leader of the bJP said that Man Mohan Singh should resign because he was undermined by the crown price. I expecty that eminent Leader of the Opposition to know that the Prime Minister and his Cabinet is responsible to the Parliament and not to the  strippling, Crown Prince. This just gies to show how deep the shadow of dynastic fascism is in India.

The BJP did not emerge as the victor in this round but to its credit the Pary and Hon'ble Naredra Modi opposed the Orinance. The shameless courtiers of the Congress do not even have the dignity to say that their Government  has been undermined and the Prime Minister, a nominee of the "Royal Family" has been publicly humiliated. The demands for the resignation of the Prime Minister only reinforce the perception that he is accountable to the "royal family" and not to Parliament. Rahul Gandhi said that it was his "personal opinion" but such is the strangle hold of dynastic fascism that personal opinions become Government policy.