The Bihar Elections: Why the BJP will do well

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books Bihar, like Tamil Nadu, is a state with clearly defined dominant castes that are concentrated in geographical zones which enables the dominant castes to turn local influence into political power in the form of seats in the Assembly or Lok Sabha. The BJP in the last Lok Sabha polls swept the state gathering all but 4 of the seats. This in effect meant that the traditional caste equations had collapsed and the development wave of Narendar Modi took everything in its wake. Old alliances were swept aside and Laloo Prasad Yadava who tried to send his daughter to the Lok Sabha was completely defeated. Misa Bharathi lost and lost badly and that too in a Yadava dominated area. This time around the BJP, though sure of a victory, is having to fight for every seat. The alliance of SP,RJD and Congress may look formidable but in reality there is little strength for this Alliance. With the SP marching out, the going has gotten tougher for Nithish Kumar and his JD(U). The BJP has stitched up a loose alliance of intermediate castes and influential sections of the Dalit castes particularly the Paswans and the Mahadalits. The inclusion of Manji in the alliance is undoubtedly a masterstroke as it creates a very broad spectrum of support for the BJP which can count on the Brahmins, Rajput and Bhumiar votes to a substantial degree. The BJP Alliance has now gained traction and Modi's announcement of a special package for Bihar has made the BJP more or less secure. The real challenge for the BJP lies in the rural pockets. Nitish Kumar tried to make this electoral battle into a personal fight between him and Modi. This strategy has failed because the alliance with Laloo Prasad Yadava has raised people's fear of the return of the Jungle Raj. Given this state, it is certain that our of 243 seats the BJP will win around 157 seats.

The Vyapam Scam and its political Implications

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books Nearly four years back, I had drawn attention to the Mafiadom prevailing in Madhya Pradesh. The state seems to be in the vice like grip of a criminal gang and the BJP walked into the trap with its eyes wide open and so the political cost is going to be extremely heavy. The problem with the BJP rule is that while the Prime Ministers personal approval rating is still very high, the Party stands diminished before the eyes of the general public. The real reason for the sorry state in which the BJP finds itself in, is due to the lack of intellectual ballast in the kind of politics the party practices. The party hardly finds space for intellectuals and except for the Vivekananda Foundation, there is the same motley crowd that gathered around the Congress is now dancing around the feet of the BJP. The same scamsters who were in business during the rule of the UPA are now back in business and BJP Ministers are now being exposed by the day. Lalith Modi has tarnished the image of the BJP more than any single individuate. It took 10 years for the Congress to become synonymous with corruption. BJP has succeeded in getting the same notoriety in less than a year. And this is unfortunate because Narendra Modi still remains the best bet for India. His Party is failing him. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh was taunted as a rival or an alternative to Narendra Modi. It is true that in the ten years of his rule the state has witnessed some improvement in the social and economic indicators. However, the Vyapam scam is proving to be the nemesis of the Chief Minister. Vyapam is the acronym for Vyavsayik Pariksha Mandal, the autonomous body responsible for conducting the public service examinations and the examinations for the Medical seats in the state. The scam surface in 2009 when more than 100 medical seats were exposed as being acquired through dubious means. The tentacles of those in power was so strong that OMR sheets were replace. Bogus answer sheets were prepared and replaced. All this for a consideration of course. It appears that enormous amounts of money changed hands and the Vyapam Board ensured that the person was selected for the post. The Chief Minister's wife Sadhna Singh's name figures prominently in the list of powerful people and perhaps she is the Mantrani referred to in the Exel Sheets of wrongful recruitment provided by a whistle blower. A scam of this dimension cannot be run without the patronage of those at the very top. In fact the FIR names even the Governor of the state, Ram Naresh Yadava as an accused. The son of the Governor was found dead in mysterious circumstances. The alarming thing about the scam and here the BJP is showing itself to be different from the Congress is the fact that nearly 50 persons associated with the Scam have been killed or died in suspicious circumstances. In the case of the medical student, Namrata Damor the state police tried to make an obvious case of murder appear as a case of suicide. The real issue confronting the party is: Is Shiraj Singh Chouhan involved in the scam. Though no smoking gun has come to light, all circumstantial evidence points out to the tacit consent, if not the active involvement of the Chief Minister. The frequency with which the various mafia groups are able to escape after committing heinous crimes points to a steady fall in the standard of administration. The fact that a senior IPS officer, Narendra Kumar was killed while performing his duties and the state government ensured that the killers went scot free suggests that Shiraj Singh is in cahoots with criminal elements. And so his hand in the Vyapam Scandal is certain. After dithering for over 2 years he has handed over the case to the CBI. I am not sure if the "caged parots" will ensure that the guilty are brought to book.

Narendra Modi's women Ministers and the moral crisis confronting the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books The year old Modi Government is facing a full blown political crisis and the Prime Minister cannot blame anyone but himself. Unlike the Congress which has a long history of ministerial misconduct, the BJP is new to power and is unable to effectively deal with the situation. In fact the ham handed manner in which the BJP put up its defense of Vasundhra Raje Scindia and Sushma Swaraj only made matters worse. The Prime Minister seems to have lost his voice and like Man Mohan Singh before him, has stopped speaking. The last major event he participated in was the International Yoge Day on June 21st, when the entire Rajpath came alive with Yoga exercises. The crux of the problem lies in the fact that the BJP lacks the intellectual ballast that can sustain its politics and its drive for political power. Whatever intellectual support it derives is from the Vivekananda Foundation and some turncoats who are now singing the BJP tune. Bereft of ideas and strategies, the BJP can now only hope that the storm passes away. And that is unlikely. The Ministers appointed are uneducated and do not understand the global and national issues even as they are imploding in the face of the Government. Of course, the Prime Minister has to deal with the material at hand and the worst part of Indian politics is that there is no place for the detached intellectual observer in the arena of politics. Smrithi Irani, a tele soap opera star, was entrusted with the tough task of running the Human Resource Development Ministry and she has doen such a poor job that even those who were inclined to give BJP and Narendra Modi a chance are now questioning the wisdom of voting for Modi. Smrithi Irani speaks good English but her lack of education is very real and she hides her inferiority by being brusque and arrogant. She has failed to make a mark in the field of education and has created unnecessary controversies, like over Yoge, German, the Four Year Degree Program and her silence over Vice Chancellors who have cheated the Government. She seems to be clueless about the issues at hand and appointing a self proclaimed 12 th standard Pass to such a ministry sent a signal down the line that Modi has scant respect for education. The affidavit case has embarrassed the Modi Government no end and this comes in the wake of the scandals of the other 2 women ministers of Modi's cabinet. Sushma Swaraj had earned a pride of place in Indian politics and was even Leader of the Opposition during the long dark years of the UPA. She was quick to corner the Singh Government on various issues stemming from the wanton corruption that went on during those years. She led the Party creditably and perhaps was smug enough to assume that she was the natural choice for being named the Prime Ministerial candidate, However, Narendra Modi pipped her to the post. Though Modi was not keen on giving her a top post, he was forced and the woman let him down badly by using her position to intervene in the immigration issues surrounding Lalit Modi, a scamster and a blackmailer who wasm primarily responsible for bringing the Kochi Tusker scandal into the public domain. He is a fugitive from the Indianlaw and the Foreign Minister of India cannot give an assurance to the British Government that any help rendered to this fugitive will not have a negative impact on India. Maybe the scandal will not hamper British Indian relations, but it has put a huge question mark over the future of Sushma Swaraj who is generally regarded as a performing minister. It has come to light that Swaraj Kaushal the Minister's husband and her daughter are both involved with Lait Modi. Vasundhara Raje Scindia takes the cake. This lady even files an affadavit in favor of the fugitive and has now been exposed. Her son, a BJP MP is neck deep in deals with Lalit Modi. Like Charles Shobraj, Lalit Modi will speell doom to all the three womane polticians of India. The BJP has handled this crisis so badly that the credibility of the Modi Government is dentted for sure.

Kiran Bedi and the Delhi Assembly Polls, 2015

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Once again the same questions and again loud, incoherent noises passing off as political wisdom. The BJP inducted Dr Kiran Bedi into the party and is projecting her as the Chief Ministerial face of the campaign for the Delhi Assemble polls scheduled for February 2015. The BJP has lost its advantage in terms of the Modi factor and has therefore "parachuted" Kiran Bedi screamed Arvind Khejriwal. Not to be outdone, the Congress leader Ajay Maken, yes the same Ajay Maken from Hans Raj about whom the dynastic fascist leader, Mani Shankar Ayer said some unpleasant things a few years back, declared that there is dearth of local leadership in the Delhi unit of the BJP. Therefore both the AAP and the Congress are reading mixed political signals in this new development. Added to the motives attributed to the induction of Kiran Bedi is the fading halo around Narendar Modi which according the APPtards has alarmed the Party. Let us see the validity of these arguments.

Dr Kiran Bedi is a prize catch as she is a well known crusader against Corruption and has shared the limelight along with Anna Hazare and his acolyte, Arvind Khejriwal. Since APP will again try to rake up the Lokpal Bill and the response of the BJP to the promise to pass a strong Lok Pal Bill, it makes sense to have the mascot of the anti Corruption movement to confront Khejriwal. None of the other leaders from Delhi match up to the record and stature of Kiran Bedi. Dr Harsh Vardhan would have been ideal, but for some strange reason he is in the dog house for the moment. Satish Upadhya cannot take on Arvind Khejriwal one on one and the BJP leadership has rightly understood this. I must add that even without Kiral Bedi, the BJP could still sweep the polls in Delhi, but there is a definite edge to the BJP Campaign now. Second, Delhi has a large Sikh population which will not vote for the Congress given its abysmal record in 1984 and Kiran Bedi being a Sikh will certainly help bring some of the votes now that the alliance with the Akali Dal is getting unstuck. Lastly, the administrative experience of Kiran Bedi cannot match anyone of her rivals. There is a strong undercurrent of support for Kiran Bedi even in the Juggi Jonpuri colonies due to her track record of service through the NGO she heads.

Now the results as I see it. Before the induction of Bedi. BJP would on its own have won around 35 to 38 seats. Now it will cross 40 though it will not reACH 49 SEATS IT ONCE HELD IN THE FIRST ASSEMBLY. Therefore Amit Shah and the BJP central leadership have pulled a coup by bringing in Kiran Bedi.

The Poll Results in Maharashtra and Haryana: Implications for the Future

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It appears that the combination of Narendar Modi and Amit Shah will indeed succeed in making India, a Congress Mukth Bharath--India free of the Congress. In Maharashtra the BJP won 123 seats on its own and in Haryana it won 47. In both these states the BJP has been able to humble the dominant regional political party which played the identity card--Siva Sena in Maharashtra and the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana. The support garnered by the BJP cut across the traditional fault lines of Indian polity--backward castes, tribal communities and Scheduled Castes have all voted for the BJP making it the most inclusive political force in the country. Further, the dynastic components of the polity like the Thackeray family in Maharashtra and the Cahutalas in Haryana stand humbled if not eliminated and this is a trend that began in the 2014 May Parliamentary Elections which saw the emergence of the BJP as a truly National force. Identity politics has resulted in the fragmentation of the political space and the resultant Governments were plagued with corruption and crime as what India witnessed during the 10 years of Congress led UPA rule.

In Maharashtra the BJP reluctantly broke itt alliance with the regional party, Siva Sena, over the issue of seat sharing. Surprisingly the Shiv Sena was unwilling  to concede just 3 extra seats over which the two parties parted company. Even though the Siva Sena put put candidates against the BJP in all the traditional regions of Maharashtra, Vidhraba, Mahratwada, and Konkan, the bJP was able to make dramatic inroads. The separation of Vidhraba from Maharrashtra is unlikely to be taken up in the near future as the Siva Sena will oppose any division of the state. The recent confusion over Telengana may lead to a rethink on the whole issue. Even though the Siva Sena used, as it is wont, extremely fiery and some would even say "gutter" language, a patch up is on the cards.

The Congress and its ally Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar was defeated because of the rampant corruption it indulged in. The Irrigation scandal in which the prime accused is Ajit Pawar, the nephew of the Maharatha strongman resulted in the defeat of the NCP though it has held on to its traditional strongholds of Baramati.

In Haryana, the INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala who is lodged in jail due to his involvement in the Teacher Recruitment  Scam won 20 seats. All the important leaders of the Party were defeated. Om Prakash Chautala himself came out of jail on bail to campaign, feigning medical grounds but the results showed that the people have no sympathy for corrupt politicians and this shows clearly that the Indian Electorate is changing. Jat identity politics made the BJP stitch a coalition of other backward castes including the dalits and has swept to power.

In Maharashtra the BJP faces a rather grim choice: it has to seek the support of the Siva Sena to form the Government and given the acrimony of the recent campaign it would be quite a task to repair the damage to the 25 year relationship. In a way the passing away of Gopinath Munde who would have been content to let the Siva Sena play the dominant partner inMaharashtra opened the door for the BJP's emergence as an important force.

The two are well and truly set to making India, Congress Mukth Bhrath.

The Metaphysics of the Political Imagination: Narendra Modi, the Indian Intellectual and the 2014 Elections

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A noted Indian "sociologist" in a center page article in the Hindu (April 5, 2014) has made some bold and superficially interesting speculations abort the brand of politics Narendra Modi represents.  I wonder why such eminent sociologists do not subject the Congress Party and its mascot, Sonia Gandhi to the same kind of rigorous scrutiny as many of his conclusions can with equal justification be extended to the Congress. In politics style matters as much as substance and when Indian intellectuals train their guns on one individual and suddenly find his ideological soul mates like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and l K Advani more authentic than Narendra Modi from a "civilization" point of view, then we know that something is seriously wrong about the logic behind such ideologically constructed posturing. Until not that long ago, Indian middle class intellectuals, particularly the tele intellectuals of the JNU breed were articulating  their wisdom in terms of sound bytes aired on NDTV which   drove home just one point: the BJP and its politics is a threat to the "secular" values of the country and by default must support the Congress party. The intellectuals found it both prudent and professionally rewarding to mouth the empty slogans of "secularism" and "inclusion", the stock in trade of high political discourse in India/.

The JNU brand of tele intellectuals were never enamored of the politics of the BPJ and if they start discovering  virtues in Atal ji and Advani ji it can only mean that any kind of rhetoric is justified when it comes to Modi bashing. All the three leaders named above share a common vision of an India that is strong, free from corruption and can hold its head high in the high table of world politics. Unlike the intellectuals who hog prime time television in India, Modi does not seek the approbation or approval of the western world. It does not matter whether Economist endorses Narendra Modi. However, the intellectuals like the author of the center page article referred to, thrive on signets of professional recognition from the Western media and institutions. This particular intellectual was opposed to the nuclear policy of India, and throughout  his long and distinguished career has not criticized USA for the slaughter in World War II  or the repeated acts of armed aggression all over the world. Yet when it comes to India they will pose as if they are the civilizational strength of India lies in its ability to produce publicists like themselves.As far as Narendra Modi is concerned his public rhetoric is civilized and yes, his language is strong and effective but does not degenerate into gutter rhetoric like Mrs Sonia Gandhi and her Congress courtiers. Why does this man not take the Congress woman to task for making public discourse so  vulgar and coarse.

As a sociologists, the writer must be aware that in terms of social inclusion as empirically measured by voting percentages and seats won, the BJP scores much higher than it rival the Congress. At least in North India, most of the SC reserved seats and ST seats have been won by the BJP and there is no use in taking recourse to the Marxist line that such figures only represents false consciousness on the part of the "subaltern" classes. At the end of the day the tele intellectual is always right and facts be damnned. Why let facts and empirically verifiable date come in the way of a politically correct and rewarding statement. The intellectual goes on to gratuitously advive the BJP   to be more "discursive" more "conversational". The discursive space in Indian politics is hogged by the Congress and its academic bandwagon who have monopolized public space in the name of secularism and nationalism. If they want to suggest that the hysterical style of ranting against electoral adversaries like the way Sonia, Rahul and other members of the First Family, the Royal Dynasty represents discursive expanse and a conversational style of politics, I am afraid that people will not accept. The electorate sees the shrill hysterical ranting of the Congress as hate mongering and it is time that the soft intellectuals like the author of the center page article recognize the political style of the dynastic fascists as divisive and fraudulent

To harp on Jaswant Singh has become fashionable. Suddenly the opponents of Narendra Modi have rediscovered the virtues of Jaswant Singh after his rebellion. But the same class of tele intellectuals were berating him until the other day for the views on Partition and his analysis that Congress too was responsible for the Partition and do In need to remind my readers of what they said about Jaswant Singh when the then NDA Government released the Taliban prisoners in exchange for the passengers of the Indian Airlines flight which was hijacked to Kabul. I agree Indians do not have a sense of History, but if "sociologists" who write about the civilizational strengths of the BJP should choose tom ignore recent events then it is not oversight but deliberate distortion for political purposes. Is there anything "civilizational" about Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi. If Narendra Modi is faulted for not being "civilizational" them I wonder if the hate filled rhetoric of the First Family is civilizational.

It is obvious that the writer has not followed the Campaign of Narendra Modi and therefore is unaware of the reasons why he resonates all around the country. He is not an "ersatz"version of the BJP as the writer inelegantly puts it, but rather one who has crafted his political message keeping the complex realities of an ever changing India. The fact is that Narendra Modi has jettisoned the old style identity politics and has changed the terms within which India debates its future. And "sociologists" of course are livid as he has out did them in their own game. He has crafted a message of social and economic development based on the principle that the State has to ensure that the basic structure within which resource transfers and nation building takes place is in tune by and large with the aspirations of the people. And he has successfully sold the argument that the economic downturn in India is linked to the massive and egregious corruption under the congress. What is offensive or objectionable about this fundamental message. Governemnts will be voted in and voted out not on the basis of real and invented identities but on the grounds of performance as seen by the common man. I do not see anything alarming in all this and wish the author had used the resources of his mind to reflect on the conditions prevailing all over the country. The sense of gloom and doom are there in the eyes of eveyone except the starry eyed wonder struck sociologists of JNU.

The upcoming elections will mark a decisive turning point in the history of India. Under Narendra Modi, India will be able to stand and take strides towards improving its economy, living standards and social harmony all of which were ruthlessly compromised during the past 10 years.

This writer can say that Dharampal will certainly endorse Narendra Modi.

The 2014 Parliamentary Elections in India: A look at the Campaign and the trends

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The Election Commission of India has announced the Poll Schedule and the upcoming 2014 Elections will be the longest and the most hard fought in Indian electoral history. Spread over a month, the 9 phases in which the Elections have been divided, are designed to move security forces around the country so that ;aw and order can be maintained. I expect this particular election to be violent as the Indian National Congress is facing the prospect of losing power and it is encouraging its storm troopers to disrupt the polls. Part of the strategy has been outsources to the AAM ADMI PARTY which has already started attacking BJP election offices and is threatening to  unleash unbridled violence as part of its campaign. Unfortunately, the rapid decline of the Congress  has made the AAP the only visible symbol of the social constituency which once supported the Congress at least in the urban pockets of northern India. The BJP and the Congress have attacked each other with guston and verve and of course, the Congress has used its courtiers to hurl the worst kind of abuses at the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate: Narendra Modi. Mani Shankar Iyer, a Cambridge educated factotum of the ruling dynasty mocked Modi by calling his a "chai wallah" and the Foreign Minister of India Salman Kurshid even used the word "impotent" to describe Modi, words that have outraged the Indian public. The rhetorical assault launched by the Congress Party is directly proportional to the slide in iys electoral fortunes. The BJP, on the other hand, has maintained studied silence and has not responded in kind.

The real reasons for the ease with which the NDA led by the BJP is hurtling towards victory are to be seen in the changing character of the Indian electorate. India is a young country in terms of its demography and the first time voters represent an aspirational  India which want better jobs, education, health and civic infrastructure. This group is not into the old style identity politics by which political parties played one caste against the other and cobbled up a majority. Modi has taken young India by storm as he connects successfully with the young by his vision of a vibrant India in which modern Industry and Infrastructure will usher in a better life syle and improve the living standards of the people. He has successfully demonstrated the efficacy of his model of development in Gujarat. Business confidence will certainly improve and much needed Foreign Investment will start flowing once the corruption infested Congress regime is unsaddled. Apart for the young voters and the issue of corruption, there are other issues that are playing out in the minds of the voter. There is a perception that India's standing among the major nations of the world has falled during the watch of the UPA II. The lack of respect for Indian concerns and the manner in whcih USA treated a senior diplomat, Devyani Khobragade, did not go down well in India. The electorate is angry that the dignity of an Indian woman, a diplomat and a representative of India was slighted is so egregious a manner. On the foreign policy front, Modi who attacked Pakistan for its barbarity in killing Indian soldiers and by drawing pointed attention to the frequent incursions into India by China, Modi has signaled that the image of a soft India will be contested. The Economy is in shambles and only Gujarat is showing double digit growth figures. The UPA regime tried to fudge poverty figures and derive propaganda by making it appear that its flagship schemes like the rural income schemes have made a difference to the lives of millions. The truth is that the schemes like the rest of the UPA was riddled with corruption and very little actually reached the people.

Political mismanagement has  also helped the NDA. The Congress for purely electoral  gain decided to divide the state of Andhra Pradesh and hoped that the formation of Telengana will ensure a substantial win in the Telengana region. Even here the electoral gain is not for the Congress but the local ally and the BJP. The unseemly politics over the release of the killers of Rajiv Gandhi has paid put the chances of a Congress revival in Tamil Nadu. Senior leaders like the discredited P Chidambaram have no where to go. Even in the 2009 General Elections, Chidmabaram was actually defeated in the Sivagangai parliamentary election but got himself declared elected by fraud and this time he will be defeated if he stands anywhere in Tamil Nadu.

The BJP is coasting to a target of around 230 to 249 seats at the moment. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which together contribute 120 seats the BJP is likely to win around 80 and set the stage for Narendra Modi;s appointment as Prime Minister of India. Both these politically crucial states are in the hands of regional satraps who have failed in the onerous task of governance. UP has seen nearly 250 riots during the past few months and the regime of the Samajwadi party has only given a thumbs up to law breakers known in local parlance as "goondas". Nitish Kumar broke his alliance with the BJP hoping to tie up with the Congress but that has fallen through and in the upcoming election he will bite the dust.

By the time Mid May 2014 arrives India will have a new government and the election of Narendra Modi looks certain.

Telengana Issue stokes violence in the Indian Parliament

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The Indian Parliament was rocked by unprecedented violence today over the vexed question of the division of the state of Andhra Pradesh by carving out the state of Telengana from the existing state of Andhra Pradesh. The Indian Constitution defines India as a Union of States and it is perhaps not quite legal for the Congress Party to separate Telengana from Andhra Pradesh when the state assembly rejected the resolution authorising the division. The Congress regime for reasons of gaining some electoral advantage decided to table the bill for the separation of Telengana from Andhra Pradesh in the Indian parliament. The Leader of the Opposition, Sushma Swaraj, has stated that there was no discussion with the Prime Minister over the introduction of the bill. Without a concensus the Congress decided to table the bill and pandemonium broke out.

The historical background of the demand for separate Telengana goes back to the heady days after Independence when Nehru decided to constitute the States Reorganization Commission in order the created linguistic states as the basic bulding blocks of the federal polity of India. In hind sight it is clear that the linguistic division of states that valorized language as the major marker of identity was a huge mistake as it has led to identity politics on a scale that is both complex and self destructive. Andhra Pradesh as irony would have it took the lead as it was the 90 day fast unto death by Potti Sriramalu which hastened the process of the creation of lingusitic states. The Telengana region which essentially consisted of the Nizam's dominions wanted to maintain its unique identity even as early as the 1950s and the region;s leaders made impassioned pleas for the preservation of what they though were the unique features of Telengana regional identity and pride. Nehru, the doddering and dithering man that he was gave the assurance that Telengan could opt out of the union with Andhra if it so desired. Just as this man made a mess in Kashmir, he was really responsible for this controversy too. Successive Congress regimes have won elections by pandering to regional aspirations and after the victory precious little was done. In the 2009 General Elections, the state of Andhra Pradesh was responsible for the return of the UPA as 33 Congress MPs were returned to the Lok sabha. Many of us feel that Andhra by voting the Congress is now paying a heavy price for its sin.

After promising statehood to the people of Telengana the Union Home mInister, P Chidambaram made an announcement on 9th December 2009 that the "process for the creation of the new state " would be set in motion. This announcement galvanized the people of the other two region of Andhra Prodesh, the Coastal region and Rayalseema. Stiff opposition was mounted in both these regions and the Central Government bought some time by setting up the Sri Krihna Committee to study the whole question whether the new state was viable or not. Sri Krishna recommended that division should  be the last option. The region of Telengana has suffered from economic backwardness and though there are hydro electic plants on the Krishna, the benefit does not accrue to the people of the region. The capital city, Hyderabad which attracted a lot of capital from the coastal region emerged as a modern and vibrant urban area with the Computer/ Soft ware firms, Central Government educational and research institutions  and offices. The money made in coastal Andhra Pradesh was invested in Hyderabad. Kurnool could have been developed as an alternate city/ capital but the emphasis was on Hyderabad.

The rise of a street smart politician, K Chandrasekar Rao and the party that he established faught the 2009 elections on the plank of separate Telengana and he could win only 2 seats out of 17 in the region. The failure to win a respectable number of seats clearly implied the rejection of the separate Telengana, but the Congress for its own cynical reasons decided to forge an alliance with the TRS and announced the intention of creating a separate state. The real issue here was the insecurity of the Congress whose performance was just deplarable. By dividing the state and merging the TRS with the Congress, the leaders of the Congress hoped to gain some safe electoral seats.

This morning when the bill was introduced in Parliament, the MPs from the coastal region and from Rayalseema created an unprecedented pandemonium in the Lok Sabha. One Congress MP Rajagopal even brought a knife into the Parliament and MPs attacked each other with paper weights and pulled out mikes. The Speaker of the Lok Sabha one Meira Kumar was forced to adjourn the house.

Now people are asking the question: Who is responsible for the mess. The Congress Party MPs were the main perpetrators of the violence as they felt that with the creation of a separate state of Telengana their political future would be doomed. Coastal Andhra hjas invested heavily in Telengana and there was pressure put on the central governemnt to protect the investments by making Hyderabad a Union Territory, a plea that was rejected by the TRS. The BJP which supports the creation of Telengana does not want to help the Congress get the credit for the creation of the new state nad hence has distanced itself from the whole issue. The BJP seems to say to the Congress" You created the mess now you clean it up. The violence and disruption caused by the Congress Party  by its thoughtless move to create a new state so as to get a few seats in the next parliament shows the depths to which the dynastic fascists can descend. Only the people of Andhra are suffering.

The Election Campaign and the Prospects of a stable Government in India: May 2014

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The Election Campaign for the 2014 General Elections in India have started. All the major parties have started their run up for the elections with the BJP under Narendra Modi leading the pack. A few week back it appeared that the BJP was heading for a 300+ seats in the LOK SABHA. Now a new uncertain factor has entered. A clutch of regional parties like the BJD, the JD (U), the AIADMK and a number of smaller parties with limited electoral prospects have entered into an alliance of sorts, styling themselves, the Federal Front. From what we have been able to gather, this new front is only a rehashing of the Third Front whose stated objective is to maintain a equal distance from both the Congress and the BJP. However, in the name of fighting "communal" forces the Third Front can be expected to side with the Congress should there be a fractured verdict. The ease with which the Congress is able to muster support against the BJP makes the task of the National Campaign of the BJP that much more arduous. The anti BJP and anti Congress public stance will last till the elections as the regional parties do not want to share the responsibilty for the criminal acts of monumental corruption which has gone on under the Congress. The so called Federal Front expects the Congress to prop up its Government just to keep the BJP out. Since this game stands exposed let us now turn our attention to the BJP Campaign.

Narendra Modi has had a series of very successful rallies/ In Meerut, Gokarkpur and Kolkatta Narendra Modi addressed massive rallies. If the turn out in these rallies is any indication of ground reality, then we can rest assured that the BJP will sail through to victory. However, Indian politics is neither that simple nor predictable, In all these rallies Narendra Modi addressed a litany of local issues and was able to link them with major national questions: insecurity due to increased terrorist activities and the UPA;s lackluster handling of them, the massive price rise which has sapped the people and of course the monumental corruption have all been brought to the attention of the people. The issue of governance has now taken centre stage and India seems to be moving away from the old style identity politics to embrace a more inclusive and purposeful vision of politics. Narendra Modi worls his magic with the crowds and has the Congress really alarmed as the Congress does not have a single leader of stature who can conncet with the people. In most rallies the crowd was arounf 400,000 to 500,000 and is a huge figure even by Indian standards.

The BJP campaign strategy is three fold. First, it is selling the Gujarat model of economic development as one of successful developmement. In spite of obstacles placed on its path, Gujart has been able to notch up growth figures of 8 to 9% annually and the infrastructure in the state is almost of western standards. In all the rallies, Narendra Modi drove home the point: bijali, sadak, pani--electricity, roads and drinking water. Secondly, the BJP has successfully targeted the Congress and its top brass for Corruption. The 2G Spectrum Scandal, the Coalgate scandal and more recently the Westland Helicopter Scandal has landed the Congress in an unenviable situation and has made feeble attempts to deflect the charge, Now the impression has gained ground that the Corruption of the Congress is the one single factor that inhibits developemt and Narendra Modi and his Government may be guilty of unconventional politics, but corruption is not one of his weak points. None of the other state governments can match that record. Finally, the focus has now shifted from 2002 Riots in Gujarat to the Congress sponsored massacre of 1984 when the Congress party organized a massive pogrom of killing Sikhs when one of their leaders was eliminated. And for this shift of focus, the BJP has to thank bloggers like this one who relentlessly kept the 1984 in the public eye and of course, the rather inane and meaningless remarks of the dynastic mascot, Rahul Gandhi.

All national surveys show the BJP and its allies in the NDA reaching a figure of around 225+ out of 242 and the Congress Party may not cross even into three digit numbers/ The Federal Front is expected to do well and if it reaches around 200 or so then the Congress will extend support and encourage it to form thr next regime. However, the people of India are aware of the dangers of a fractured mandate and this time around we can expect a decisive mandate. The Congress party has started floundering. Its leader Sonia Gandhi's statements about the BJP have evoked hostile response and the Telengana issue has already started snowballing into a huge problem for the Congress. The ham handed manner in which Chidambaram as Home Minister handled the whole Telengana issue so that he could get a safe MP seat from Telngana has come back to haunt the Congress.

As usual let me end by making the prediction that BJP will emerge as the largest pre poll block in the next Lok Sabha.

The Challenge of the AAM ADMI PARTY; How to confront the Great White Hope of Indian Politics

A  look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Urban India is witnessing a novel political phenomenon: the rise and rise of the Aam Admi Party. The anti corruption movement launched by Anna Hazare was accompanied by a surge of civil society activism against corruption in India and the victory of the Aam Admi Party can be traced directly to the political consciousness roused by the movement of Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare. While the former supports the BJP under Hon'ble Narendra Modi as the political alternative, Anna Hazare decided to remain apolitical. His chosen disciple Arvind Khejriwal decided to break away and form a political party (the AAP) which rolled to power with the support of the Congress party and is now the ruling party in Delhi. It is time to assess the strengths of this new force and try to evaluate its impact on the 2014 Elections to the Lok Sabha. The BJP can ignore the AAP only at its own risk and must take steps to counter its appeal.

Until the victory of the AAP it was generally held that the BJP will emerge victorious in the 2014 General Elevtions with Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister. Now the picture is not that sanguine. primarily due to the politics of the Aam Admi Party. Led by a former Indian Revenue Officer, Shri Arvind Khejriwal (around 45 tyars old). the AAP seized control over the reins of Government in Delhi after the BJP declined to form the Government. The BJP won 32 seats, a few seats short of an absolute majority. The AAP after declaring publicly that it will not seek the support of the Congress, a party with a national notoriety for Crime, Corruption and Communalism, had no problem in getting the support of the Congress which is extending crucial support from outside the Government to sustain the Government. This arrangement is neither politically valid nor an ethical one as both Parties snipe at each other all the time and yet the Congress voted in favor of the APP in the Delhi assembly a few days back. I do not think this arrangement will last beyond a couple of months as the Congress will be badly dented if the AAP succeeds.

Arvind Kejriwal played to the gallery like a pro. He rode a metro train to the Capital to take the vote of Office at Delhi's Ram Lila Grounds where he sat on dharna along with his mentor. Such a populiost gesture went down well with the people who love to see their "High Officials" appear ordinary. What is forgotten is the fact that to keep the pretence of Arvind Khejriwal's pro poor image huge public expenditure was incurred in order to secure the metro route. A mere gesture, a nod in the direction of the common man, a supreme act of condescension is taken as proof of the simplicity and honesty of Arvind Khejriwal. Let us give him his moment.

The policy initiatives taken by the AAP even before it secured a vote of confidence is proof of the absolute disregard for the public exchequer. Announcing subsidies to the tune of 3, 500 crore rupees, the electricity bills of the consumers in New Delhi got some relief. However, the long term solution to the problem of energy pricing lies not in subsidies but in augmented power generation and the AAP has no clue as to what to do. Arvind Khejriwal is a mechanical engineer trained in IIT, Kharaghpur in West Bengal and he may have some idea of the problems inherent in his solutions.

The political phenomenon called the AAP is new to Indian politics. For long the political discourse has been dominated by issues of personality and identity. The AAP has shifted the discourse to issues concerning the common man: water, electricity, public safety, and corruption. The shift to a non identity based politics is welcome. However, it was Narendra Modi who shifted the emphasis on Governance rather than identity. The appeal of this new kid on the block to the post 1990's generation is obvious. Liberalism initiated by Narashima Rao in the 1990's has spawned a whole generation whose politics is shaped by live issues concerning everyday life and problems. The network created by the AAP during the heady days of the Anna Agitation paid huge dividents. The AAP was able to articulate the problems of the people of small neighbourhoods because it had a dedicated cadres working here. This networked interaction with localities using GIS and other sophisticated tools of analysis makes the AAP a viable force/ The bJP will do well to invest more tiem amnd energy in drawing out local issues spread over 532 Parliamentary consituencies instead of banking entirely on the charisma of Hon'ble Narendra Modi.

On balance, the AAP is certainly a new force but its alliance with the Congress will spell its doom.

Narendra Modi and the BJP; The Internal crisis and its ramifications

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books The elevation of the Hon'ble Narendra Modi to head the election campaign for the 2014 General Elections was not unexpected. The BJP has seen in the Chief Minister a new kind of leader, one who has the largest appeal in a country where the majority of the population is less than 30 years of age. The demographics of the electorate dictates the choice of a campaign strategist who can connect with the younger sections of the population. Another important point. After fomenting "identity politics" based on confessional sects, the country particularly the Muslims were willing to give the Congress party its thumbs up by default. The Congress party had learned the art of whipping up minority fears for its own dynastic purposes. The happy fallout of the Jaswant Singh controversy has been that it has led to a rethinking about the role of the Congress in the tragedy of Partition and many are now willing to concede that the Congress too was complicit in the tragedy. Minority fears also revolve around the unsettled and ongoing controversy of the role of the Congress Party and its leadership in the anti-Sikh Massacre of 1894. One happy consequence of all these developments is that the Congress propaganda of being a party which protects minority interests has been questioned. The changing nature of Indian society and demography has led to VIRTUAL REJECTION OF POLITICS OF the "old kind". The cobbling together of caste groups, vested interests and sundry other sodalities into a combination that can hurl a candidate across the winning post and in the first past the winning post system this strategy was often successful. The only exception to this general rule was the 1977 election which was a referendum on the Congress Party imposed Emergency. The 2014 Elections is showing every sign of snowballing into a referendum on the Congress and its performance. The series of scandals involving powerful congressmen like P Chidambaram and Pawan Bansal, regional allies like the DMK and the rest has made the entire country restive. Indians have come to accept a fair degree of corruption as then price for democracy, unlike China where the Confucian ethics curbs the predatory instincts. However the rising crime graph and the impunity with which the Congress dealt with the question of accountability has outraged the nation and so the 2014 Election will be fought on the issue of governance and accountability. The Chief Minister of Gujarat, Hon;ble Narendra Modi has been able to articulate a vision of politics which the young find highly inspirational. He has turned politics over to Economics and has made development the sole criterion for political legitimacy. In this, Modi is essentially following the East Asian and China model which placed salience on develpment. The growth rate of Gujarat over the past decade has been virtually in the double digits and even the hostile Indian print media has had to acknowledge the vast improvement in the economy of Gujaratt. There are however questions of inclusion which still remain. We must say that only after the economy has grown can one address the issue of inclusion. The ideologues of the Congress and their cohorts in the Indian "social science" establishment have raised quetions about the "inclusive" nature of Gujarat's growth story. What these ideologues fail to grasp is that over the last decade Gujarat has become almost a developed state and all social indices are positive. It is against this background that Narendra Modi began to draw attention. The people of India, particularly the young want better lives for themselves, better education and better living standards and are convinced that the old style of identity politiccs favored by the Congress is not taking the country anywhere except toward crime and corruption. The schemes launched by the Gujarat Government if replicate on a national scale will lead to tremendous progress. Governance in GujarAT IS FREE FROM THE MALAISE OF CORRUPTION. hON.BLE nAREDRA MODI is perhaps the only chief minister who does not face charges of corruption and financial maleficence. And the people of India want to give this new kind of politics a chance. The BJP like any Indian political party is full of factions. L K Advani has virtually disassociated himself from the leadership of Shri Modi, This is unfortunate as Advani is a tall leader and well respected within the party and outside. I have great respect for L K Advani and I think that he is too great a man to let the clouds of today rain out the prospects for a better India. However Modi has a toough job ahead of him. Being the chairman of the Election Committee he would need to interact with state level leaders who are aligned to various factions and the defeat of the party in Karnataka must have led to the realization that factionalism is self defeating. Modi must quickly develop a line of command which reports directly to him and not to the faction bosses. The 2014 Elections will be fought on the issue of governance and corruption and Modi has demonstarted success in both.

THE COAL SCAM AND THE SCANDAL OF GOVERNANCE IN INDIA

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books The 2 G Spectrum scan is still hanging like a cloud around the Congress led UPA Government and it has already claimed the heads of 2 central minister--Dayanidhi Maran and A Raja--both of whom belonged to a regional political party, the DMK. In Indian politics there is no such thing as a single author scam. It is very obvious that the highest summits of the political system which includes Sonia Gandhi and Man Mohan Singh had a hand in the scam but were clever enough to ensure that lesser mortal took the rap for it. Th coal scam is almost identical in its modus operandi, and the Congress Government is trying its best to wriggles out of the ever tightening noose around its neck. With 2 scandals with a net loss of nearly 20% of the GDP of the country, there will be a lot of froth flying thick everywhere. The problem with the UPA Government like the Bourbons of France is that they forget nothing and they learn nothing. From the 2 G Spectrum Scandal they must have learn that the auction route is the best way of allocating scare resources and ensure a hefty return to the state exchequer. However since political gratification is the objective, the UPA allocated 57 coal blocks in an arbitrary and non transparent. In the 2G Specrum Scam, A Raja could be sent to jail as he was a minister from a regional party and a dalit to boot. In the case of the Coal Scam the ministry was headed by the Prime Minister himself who retained the ministry under his direct charge. Now that the scandal has surfaced the Congress Party is trying its best to protect the Prime Minister and others who were involved in the decision making process. India has large reserves of coal and the state exchequer would have got nearly 15 billion US dollars had the auction route been taken. Instead prime coal mines were allocated to private parties which included Tata Power, Tata Steel,Essar Power Generation,Jindal Steel and many other power generating companies or steel plants. The criteria on which this allocation was made has not been spelled out. In the case of the 2 G Spectrum at least there was a fig leaf of objectivity in that the allocation was done on the basis of the first come first served basis. Even this lame defence is not available for the coal scam. As per the norms and procedure of the Government of India, the file for such major decisions has to be signed by the cabinet minister and only then it becomes operational. In the case of the Coal Scam the files were all signed by the Prime Minister in his capacity as the Coal Minister and hence he cannot now evade responsibility or accountability. The mines which were allotted to private parties are the most lucrative ones since they are all open mines and do not require too heavy an investment in infrastructure. The Comptroller and Auditor General of India in his Report submitted to Parliament has clearly stated that gross irregularities in procedure had taken plce causing a net loss of 1.86 lakh crores ruppees to the treasury of the people of INdia. The kind of Governance we have in India under the uPA aims at enriching the private players at the cost of the Government and obviously huge kick backs play a role in the formulation of such skewered policies. The principle opposition party the BJP has raised the issue in the highest democratic forum of the country, the LOK SABHA. Instead of answering the questions raised, the Prime Minster is indulg ing in cheap gimmicks when he stated in his defence that this was done to favor the opposition ruled states. It is only an accident that the coal rich states are presently under the BJP and the Congress is not known to have concern for anyone or institution except its "royal" dynasty. The coal ministry bureaucrats suggested public auction as the best method for pricing the coal blocks but it was blocked by the Prime Minster, just as was done in the case of the 2G Spectrum pricing. The effort now currently underway to amde the NDA responsible for the policy is untenable because the policy change was initiated only after the UPA GOvernment was formed in 2004. The Scandals which have undermined the present government will have their impact in the next election. The anti corruption movement led by Baba Ramdev is likely to create enough impact to tilt the balance in favor of the bJP in the next election. The 2014 elections can only be lost by the BJP due to political mismanagement and factionalism.

Nitin Gadkar, Lalu Yadava and the World of Dogs

Nitin Gadkari, the President of the BJP has called the Yadava chieftains from the Cow Belt "DOGS". Now I respect animals and I am sure that this comaprison is very very offensive and I condemn Nitin Gadkari for making such an outrageous statement. I own a few street dogs and tto the best of my knowledge have never threatened to crush anyone under a roadroller. This being the case how can Lalu Prasad Yadave be compared to a "dog". The dogs of this planet can feel outraged at the very thought that a gentleman who has the "fodder scam" facing him should feel offended. I also like to point out that ane Mishra who was seeing one of the girls of that Yadava was found dead in a canal. Now dogs do not do such outrageous things and they must be treated with dignity.
The politicians of this country call India are corrupt and criminal and they think that they have the licence to kill, abuse, pillage, rape, murder and if they have the right "secular" credentials like the Yadava duo or that DP Yadava they escape all accountability for their crimes. Today these to Yadavas are caying foul. Has anyone forgotten what Mulayam Yadava tried to do to Mayawati a few years back or the horrible words uttered by Mrs Bahuguna against Mayawati a few month back. Indian politicians are a disgrace to India and everything decent in the world and therefore deserve no mercy.
The gang of corrupt criminals called politicians will thrive as long as people dop not relise that by voting such people they are in fact commiting a crime against themselves.
I am not saying that NITIN Gadkari has done the right thing but there is a limit to the patience of everyone. When George Fernades was Defence Minister the CongressParty used to hurl abuses in Parliament on the coffin matter. Hon'ble Narendar Modi is being humiliated day in and day out by the likes of pretty face Bhraka Dutt and her tribe. As for me I say that given a choice between dogs and cats and Indian politicians I prefer dogs, cats, monkey, snakes and sundry animals as they are any day more civilised than that khaini stined fodder thief.

The Fall of the UPA Regime

It is unlikely that the regime of Dr Manmohan Singh and Soniaji will survive the vote of confidence and the nation will heave a big sigh of relief to see the end of a corrupt, inefficient and arrogant government whose sole raison d'etre is dynastic fascism of the most crude kind. I normally do not have kind words to say about the vampanthis, but they have done the nation proud by setting the process of the fall of this regime. The irony is that the Congress is going with a begging bowl even to Deve Gowda whose own government was pulled down by the Congress after the PM was named nikkamma (stupid) by the then President of the party, Shri Sitaram Kesari, the late and unlamented Congressman from Bihar. The arrogance of Congressmen is still on public dispaly when the General Secretary of the Party Shri Veerappa Moily is addressing the media with venom and spit spewing from his lips in equal measure. No one has forgotten the fact that it was during Veerappa Moily's tenure as CM of Karnataka that his name sake Veerappan had a free run of the forests of Karnataka and this fellow now talks about politics after having served as a front man for Veerappan. Then comes the other pillar of secularism and dynastic fascism, Karunanidhi. It was during his regime that Kachchateevu, an island off the coast of Ramesvaram that belonged to Tamil Nadu as the Sethupathuis of Ramnad excercised suzerainty over the island, was handed over to Sri Lanka in 1974. And Indian fishermen are being killed with impunity nu the Sri Lankan navy. Why does he not remove his dark glasses and yellow shoulder rag and see reality for what it is: make the retrieval of Kachateevu the price for DMK support for the Congress regime.A cut back to the past: 1999 when Atal Behari Vajpayee faced a vote of no confidence in which Jayalalitha was the prime agent. He did not trey to purchase MPs with money power, or intimidate them with the CBI or blackmail them into supporting the government of the day. He faced the Lok Sabha like a statesman and lost by one vote and then went on to win the elections. It is pathetic to see the shenanigans of the Congressmen. Some are being offered ministerial posts in spite of a criminal record. others are being wooed with money and the asking price is anywhere from 25 to 50 crores. Nothing like this happened in the past when the NDA was ruling. Why are the so called secularists not alarmed at the fall of public values at the hands of the Congress. The best part of all this is that even god cannot save the regime in New Delhi and it will fall and as I keep saying, good riddance to a bad regime.The Congress has devalued the post of the Prime Minister making a mockery of the most important constitutional post by making Manmohan Sigh the PM without power or authority. Somnath Chatterjee, thee Speaker, has suddenly woken up to the fact that he hols a constitutional office and so does Lal Kishen Advani, who is the leader of the Opposition. He cannot say that he will not vote with the BJP. He can at best say that as Speaker he would like to be neutral and that is understandable.