UTTAR PRADESH PRADESH ELECTIONS; BAHU'S ANALYSIS

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books.

THe chattering class has found a bew topic to while away the time: the upcoming UP and 4 other state elections. The Congress Party is starting down the barrel of absolute defeat as it is unable to create even the semblance of fight against the other major players. The induction of Priyanka Vadra into the campaign shows that Dynasty obsessed fascism in the Congress is alive, well and has lulled that stupid party into thinking that by flounting a pretty face they can get back the base which was lost. Even the UP electorate has woken up to the fact that the Congress is concerned only about the survival of the Dynasty and nothing else. Priyanka will swing a few voted in the depripit pocket boroughs of the Congress, Amethi and Rae Berelly, and her presence will have zero impact. The Congress does not have a social base for itself in UP as the Upper caste Rajputs are with the Samajvadi Pary and the Dalits are with The Samajvadi Party has started its campaign by mobilising the so-called backward castes and the Muslim votebanks. Its emphasis on corruption and misgovernance will hardly find too many takers because Mulayam Singh Yadava's regime was notoriously goonda driven. There was no law and order during his tenure and people of UP remember his misgovernance and corruption. Further, like the Congress, Samajvadi is also turning into a dynastic fascist party with son Akilesh runnning the show like the yuvaraj. The BJP has started on a positive not and has more or less identified the key issues on whcih to fight the election. They have rightly cornered the Congress over the Muslim quota issue. They have highlighted the break down of the law and order and the rampant corruption in Mayawati's regime. It seems that the BJP will improve its tally but will fall short of a simple majority.

The election commission's order to cover the statues erected by Mayawati has been challenged by that clown Laloo Prasad Yadave by saying will they cover my "lantern". The statues were erected by wasting crores of people's money while the lanterns on the street are people's own private property and public money was not wasted on them. So there is need to have aperspective on these issues.

My analysis is that out of 403 seates, BJP will get aroung 98-100, BSP will get around 150-175, SP will get around 70-90 and smaller parties will divide the rs-est will Congress getting between 30-35 and Ajit Singh's Party getting 15- 20 seats in Western UP.

Political Turmoil in Pakistan: Military coup is in India's interest

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books
Statecraft is based on national interests not ideology and I wish the so-called political scientists who write about India's foreign policy understand and recognise this fact. More often than not, it is assumed that a democratic regime will help better Indo-Pakistani relations and this remains a myth of South Block. Let us not forget that the political parties in Pakistan whip up passions against "infidel" India for their political gains and it was Benazir Bhutto, as Prime Minister who instigated the "intifada" in KASHMIR. Somehow Indian policy makers have a tendency to forget recent history as they mouth platitude's about the return of democracy in Pakistan. The November 26th Attack also took place in atime of "democracy" in Pakistan. If possible India should work for the disintegration of Pakistan by encouraging the Pashtuns to merge with their ethnic group in Afghanistan and make the Durrand Line the basis of the 4th reorganization of the subcontinent. However, Indians neither have the intelligence nor the political leadership for undertaking such a task. Lord Curzon's vision for a secure India alone will make for a better policy.
The recent unrest in Pakistan stemming from the so-called memogate scandal spells disaster for Pakistan. Political turmoil has begun and the ethnic fault lines will get accentuated as time goes by. India should actively help in bringing down the civilian government as the military has a more pragmatic approach and is susceptible to US pressure. For starters, the Pakistani military establishment does not have any vested interest in stirring up sentiments against the infidels towards the east, and it knows that in a conventional war, even with the Chinese actively aiding Pakistan India will eventually emerge triumpahnt, not because the Indian Army is brave and well trained, but because India has more resources in terms of men and material.General Kayani, like President Parvez Mussaraf has not made a single provocative statement so far. The tottering regime of Zardari and Gelani will fall in a few days time and there will be a military government behind a civilian fascade. India should recognise and ensure that the peace process is further strengthened during this period. Military takeovers are good for India.

The Politics over the DAM; Kerala and Tamil Politicians are both to blame

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Tamil politicians are back at their ususal game of barbarous bluster and brinkmanship. Vaigoplalaswami, the leader of one Dravidian faction has even threatened a blockade of Kerala over the Mullaperyar Dam issue. It appears that with the defeat of the LTTE and the return of nornalcy in Sri Lanka, the Western funded Human Rights activists not withstanding ( I wonder why they do not scream at what the White men are doing in Libya, Pakistan and Afghanistan), Tamil politicians need an issue to whip up the cold, insane frenzy of their electorate. The settlement of the Tamil issue in Sri Lanka has deprived them of one milch cow that like kamadhenu could be relied upon to deliver votes. Now they have latched on to the Mullaperyar Dam issue.
Let me begin by stating certain historical and legal facts which the semi literate Kerala and Tamil politicians ignore. First, Tamil Nadu does not have riparian rights over the waters because the Peryar River was diverted from its natural course and made to flow into Tamil Nadu. So Kerala can rightly claim that Tamil Nadu does not possess riparian rights; for some reason they are not doing so. However, I think that on humanitarian grounds, Tamil Nadu must be given its exixting share of water without too much ado. Keral politicians, instead of driving home the legal and tecnical arguments are like tamil politicians whipping up the frenzy of the mob. I was shocked when a highly educated girl sent me a SMS some time back in which she frantically stated that 4 districts of Kerala, including Kochi, in which she lives, is in imminent danger of innundation. I told her that the collpase of the dam was only a figment of the movie maker's imagianation. I do not know whether she was reassured. I am only saying this to show how much panic the Karala politicians have whipped up.
The 999 year lease agreement signed with the then Madras Government is a legal absurdity. The legal rights of the then Madras Government came from the unequal treaties and sanads signed with princely states and Kertala wille well within its legal rights to claim that with Independence thae treaty lapsed. Unfortunately the legal fagility of the argument of the Government of Tamnil Nadu is not being exploited by Kerala. The legal grounds on which Tamil Nadu stakes its claim over the dam is not consistent with the Constitution of India and its federal structure. Tamil Nadu cannot claim administrative control over a dam located in Kerala territory when the safety of the people livining in the downstream dsictricts lie with Kerala. I ma not particularly fond of Karal and its Communinst and Congress tribe of politicians, but facts must be our concern.
I think the Governemnt of India is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. The best way to break the logjam would be to renotiate the Treaty of 1885 after a complete tecnical study of the strength of the dam. It is another example of the absurdity of Tamil politicians who claim that for 999 years the dam need not be repaired.
The fun has begun. Let us see how it ends.

The Congress Party,Bhanwri Devi, Mahipal Maderna and the Political Crisis in Rajastahan

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Rajas tan voted for the Congress Party in the last General Elections and has been rewarded with the kind of governance that even the Duke of York would have avoided. I am not endorsing the BJP regime in Jaipur under Vasundhara Raje Scindhia, but that Government avoided the sort of scandals which has made governance a non-issue in the state. I always wonder why the people of India who know that the Congress party is only a criminal organization, a facade for dynastic fascism, repeatedly vote for the Congress. The people of India voted out the NDA and are now reeling under the twin challenges of price rise, corruption and the consequent stagnant economic growth. But I digress.

A typical congressman is only a courtier bred like lap dogs to grovel at the feet of the dynasty. Mahipal Maderna, a jat congressman and a detractor of Ashok Ghelot apparently had his concubine a nurse called Bhanwri Devi killed by a gang of Bishnoi criminals who were close to this Congressman. This woman given the fact that she has consorted with Congressmen had acquired a taste for life in the fast lane and had made a secret recording of this corpulent congressman in a total state of nudity as he fumbled and groped his way over the assets of this nurse. Even the other congressman, N D Tewari would have found Mahipal Maderna's performance a trifle difficult to stomach. Congreessmen seem to have a genetic predisposition toward crime, sloth filth and violence. Who has forgotten the fact that Independent India's largest massacre of its own citizens was orchestrated by the Congress Party.

Bhanwri Devi and her cohorts started blackmailing the Congress minister with the CD. She should have known that Jats would have no qualms about killing her, afte rall she belonged to the Scheduled Caste. The nurse entrusted the job of having the CD auctioned to a local goon, Sahi Ram Bishnoi who hired two fellow Bishois to perhaps kill her and dispose off her body. Bishnois are generally a peaceful lot, but given the fact that Congressmen are around turn killers.

Ashok Ghelot was informed about the CD nearly year back and like a cheap blackmailer used the information to keep the Jat faction leader Maderna in check. By not taking any step, Ashok Ghelot has shown himself to be not only incompetent but worse willing to blackmail for power. What else can none expect from a man who has spent 50 years in a criminal gang called the Congress party. The social fabric of Rajastan has begun to fray. The Meos, the Gujjars and now even the Jats are all violently opposed to the Congress. If the Bhanwri Devi killing leads to the fall of this Congress regime it will be welcome.

The central government should dismiss the Rajastan Government and order a CBI inquiry.

CHINA VS INDIA; TIME MAGAZINE DEBATE

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

In the latest issue of Time is featured a debate, Which Economy will Rule the World? This debate sputters intermittently in the pages of News Magazines. While China receives a bad press because of the perceived threst to Western economic hegemony, India escapes scrutiny aas it hides behind the facade of dynastic fascism bolstered by periodic elections, as if India is an exemplar of a flourishing democratic state. Between India and China, I can say with all authority at my command that China, though a one Party state, the social indicators are all in favour of China. The country has been able to built world class educational institutions, provide clean water, housing and education along withnhealth care to its citizens. The standard of living oof an ordinary Chinese citizen is quite a few trimes better than it is in India. Even on the so-called human rights point of view China is quite a few notches higher. The Chinese policy of land acqusition makes it possible for those displaces to acquire stakes in the industry/ or enterprise that is established on their land. In India, as the example from Mayawati's UP and West Bengal show land is acquired by the state Governments in order to cater to the needs of private developers. India has a lot to leatrn from China.
Unfortunately since the time of Jawaharlal Nehru, the Congress regimes have encouraged rivalry with China. India and China have shared 2000 years of peaceful coexistence which was disrupted by the foolish and perverted policies of Nehru. India should not have interfered in the internal affairs of Tibet. The policy of provoking the Chinese over Tibet turned out to be counterproductive as it did not serve the national interests of India. Even now, India is allowing itself to be used by the Western powers against China and this policy is not in India's interest.
China has pursued the policy of economic growth by stimulating the domestic demand and by developing a niche market for its products abroad. I remember when my daughter was a small child she used to play with little antique models of cars and all of them were made abroad in China. Today the Haier, a Chinese Company has entered the consumer electtronic market and already in Infdia the washing machines made by this Company enjoys a very good reputation. And China makes quality products for less than third the price.
China has emerges as a pioneer in fast trains. It is now possible to travel from Bejing to Lasha is 24 hours and this is a technologicaL FEAT that China can be legitimately be proud of. India on the other hand is still stuck in the nineteenth century and fast trins in India trave at 9- to 100 km per hour, a far cry from the sppeds in China. India claims that it is aleading soft ware power. Even here internet usage in China is higher and China has emerges as a global player in the hard ware market. The world's fastest computer with 3 trillion tetra flops was made by China.
India is held back by a corrupt and criminal political class represented by the Congress party. Dynastic fascism has led to corruption on a scale that is now threatening to tear the country apart. A criminal political class aided and abetted by the bureaucracy is riding rough shod over the civil society. While judicial activism has brought some relief to the people, there is no rule of law. Politicians still commit crimes with impunity and in spite of some high profile politicians cooling their heels in Tihar jail, there is no rule of law in India. In China politicians are executed for corruption and I would like to see this law in India as well.
I personally feel that China has surpassed India in every sphere and there is no point is taliking about competition between the two. CHINA is superior in every aspect.

USA, FRANCE, AND NATO ARE GUILTY OF CRIMES AGAINST PEACE IB LIBYA

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The world has now seen the horrific images of the head of a Moslem state Libya, Muammar Qaddafi being killed in cold blood and his body, agasinst Islamic customs descerated and turned into a public spectacle for all the NATO armed "freedom fighters" to gwak over. Thr Americans and the French under Sarkozy have behaved in the most disgusting and dsigraceful manner and it only goes to show that the White countries of the world have scant respect for the dignity and lives of non-white people. It matters little that Barack Hussein Obama, an Afican-American with a Kenyan father behaved in the same manner as George W Bush. I am surprised that big counties like India and China did not raise their voice against theis unilateral intervention in Libya. UN Security Council has created a new concept in International Law by which in the name of humanitarian intervention the NATO can take any measure to dismember soverign states. The Westphalia order is now dead as a door nail.

The irony is not lost on students of history. One hundered years ago--October 24th 1911, the Italian colonial army captured and killed in the very town of Sirte, Mustapha ben Ahmed the patriot and anti-colonial fighter. Qadaffi was captured and shot on 24th October 2011 along wuith 53 of his men and NAT has to expalin the circumstances surrounding the brutal killing of Col Qaddaffi. Some kind of humanitarian intervention this. The post mortem shows that both Qaddafi and his son were shot at point blank range. As ususal American academics have the freedom to run with the hare and hunt with the hound and one acadeic by name Joanne Mariner has confirmed the revenge killing. I wonder why this womaN DOES NOT COME NOT AND CONDEMEN her government for this kind of barbarity. Academics in the USA can critisize all they want and this only reenforces the lpicture of a corporate state permitting its"intellectuals" the freedom to think if not to act. Fereedom of the American academic does not carry any responsibilityy and hence it is cheap and in the post -colonial theoretical armature, mere ideology. Like the German-Nazi regime, the NATO war machine has to be dismantled. Unfortunately Col Qaddafi invited destruction upon himself by agreeing to give up the ABC weapons program in return for a short honeymoon with the West. He was feted in Paris aND nEW yORK NOT THAT LONG AGO.

NATO carried out 40,000 bombing missions over Tripoli and Sirte and the death of civillians in these raids was countless. Even US embedded journalists who trumpet His/Her Master's Voice have drawn attention to the countless nameless dead in the cities capyured from pro-qadaffiloyalists. Benghazi the rebel stronghold was protected by the no-fly zone. The dispropotionate nature of the ariel bombardment itself shows the intent of NATO in launching the attacks. The French aircraft Rafale and the Erofighter have both demonstrated their worth at the expense of the non-white people of Libya.

Like in Iraq the real price will now be paid by the people of Libya. For all his faults, the socio-economic development in Libya was impressive in terms of health care and education. And the real prize is ofcource OIL and the west is assured another 50 years of Libyan oil.

BAIL OR JAIL FOR KANIMOZHI? DO POLITICIANS DESERVE ANY SYMPATHY

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and bOOks.

I think that the legal advice Ms Kanimozhi is getting is not only of poor quality, but worse it is proving counter productive. Kanimozhi and her father represent a strand of Indian political culture that takes India back to the days of dynastic rule and the culture of the courtier, courtesan, and criminal. The DMK as a party and as a political movement has shown scant respect for rule of law. In it said that in Tamil Nadu when the DMK rules the police cannot take action against criminals because of the rampant criminalisation of the political culture. In fact on the 100th birthday of Annadurai more than 100 hardened criminals were released from jail and all of them were serving life sentences. In fact the killers of Menaka, the fearless woman councillor of Madurai who took on the "tanker lorry mafia" in Maduarai were released and the main accused had served less than 1 year fin jail after being convicted of murder. So let not the DMK preach about rule of law. They suddenly discover the virtues of law only when King Lerar's daughter is in jain for criminal misconduct. I think the real issue is the sort of values this aging partiarch has imparted to his children. The DMK is a lumpen party with dynastic fascism as its core ideology just like the Congress.

I have met Kanimozhi on one ocassion and found her pleasant and engaging and was extremely courteous to me. So I would not have personally been offended if she had been granted bail. But we are addressing a larger question. Do politicians deserve sympathy. The answer to this question is no. They have systematically plundered the country. The 2G Spectrum sacandal is only one of several. The 1984 carnage organised by the Congress party after the death of Indiara Gandhi has not resulted in a single conviction. The case against that Yadava criminal from Bihar--Laloo Prasad-- will come up only after the last witness has been killed. The illiterate fellow is still disgracing the Parliament. So India has a nation has no symapahy for politicians. Political crime is a low investment and high return industry. See the case of Papu Yadava, D P Yadava, Neera Yadava and sundry others. Not one has been convicted.

Kanimozhi should have asked bail on the ground that her role in the 2G spectrum was limited to the 200 crores invested in Kalaignar TV and should have been successful in getting bail. However she said that being a woman, a wife and having an aged parent she should be given bail. Just imagine the chaos that would result if bail is granted on these spurious grounds. Every congress man will make his wife the benami for his crimes and the poor woman will be in jail and then bail. Thank god that O P Saini has seen through this argument. Moreover, the DMK is capable of having witness eliminated. If fact one of the directors of the Grrehouse Promoters was killed and the Chennai police made it look like suicide. What about the killing of Paul who was the E O of Tiruchendur Temple whose gold was looted by a DMK bigwig several decades back. DMK like the Congress party has crime in its DNA and deserves no sympathy. Let the patriarch suffer like King Lear.