AMIT SHAH, POLITICS, PARTY AND BIOGRAPHY

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Amit Shah and the March of the BJP
Anirban Ganguly 1 Shiwanand Dwivedi
New Delhi: Bloomsbury, 2019.

Isac Deutcher, the famous biographer of Stalin and of Trotsky quotes the Florentine political thinker Niccolo Machiavelli who says "all armed phpphets conquer and unarmed prophets are vanquished". Biographers of politicians, diplomats and statesmen should remember this wise insight while writing biobraphies or rather manufacturing them. Anirban Ganguly, is a well known ideologue of the BJP and is the Director of the Syama Pradad Reseach Foundation, a well known think tank, in New Delhi. He is a good writer with an impressive educational credentials to his name.n However, Amit Shah and his political life though well documented, this book fails to address certain vital issues: the Goghra Incident, the Shorabbuddin Inncident and the encounter killings of Ishrat Jehan and her terrorist companions are just ignored. And this is a wrong rhetorical strategy. In fact as a biographer of Amit Shan, Anirban Ganguly should have discussed these three very imp[ortant events that in effect shaped Amit Shah's rise to the most poserful positionas the Home Minister of India. Before delving into the details of the biography I want to discuss precisely the issues evaded by Dr Ganguly.

Both the Hon'ble Prime Minister and the Hon'ble Home Minister of India have been accused by the Congress and other opposition parties of being complicit in the massacres that took place after the killing of the 59 passengers at Godhra station in Febuary 2002. Andy Marino in his biography of Narendra Modi which I have reviewed in this blog, has clearly brought out the facts that Narendra Modi was elected to the Gujarat Assemby just a day before the Godhra inncident and he was 200 kilometers away. Telephone records clearly show thst the then Chief Minister anf his MoS Home Department, noene other than the subject of this biography were on the phone directing the police to use maximum force to bring the riots under control. The Army was called out from Ahemdabad on the same day and this is in direct contrat to the conduct of Rajiv Gandhi who refused to call out the Army even as Congressmen went aon a killing spree after his mother died. Shoot at sight orders were given and more people were killed in the police firing than in the riots inself. Rampaging mobs were brought under control. The UPA Government tried to implicate Narendra Modi in the Gujarat Riots by saying that the state Governemnt did not take steps to control the situation. In fact, there were insinuations to the effect by Congressmen that Modi and Shah were directing the mobs and a discredited police officer, Sanjeev Bhat made statements to the effect that he was present in the room when such orders were given. This satement of Sanjeev Bhat was proved to be false on the basis of his own mobile phone data which showed his presence elsewhere. Based on such propaganda the Supreme Court ordered a Special Investigating Team and the SIT after interogationg both Modi and Shah gave a clean chit. In other words, exonerated both of any involvement in the post Godhra riots. This allegation was used both by the Congress party and Pakistan to demonixde Modi leading to the denial of US visa for nearly a decade. These facts are important and Anirban Ganguly has erred by ignoring them.

Amit Shah was the Minister of State for the Home Department and reported directly to the Chief Minister. Amit Shah hailed from a rich Gujarati business family and was educated in a traditional way and this explains both the analytical skill and the vigour of his public persona. Remarkably, Amit Shah was externed from Gujarat on the orders of the High Court and this turned out to be a blessing in disguise. The killing of Shorabbuddin, a criminal who was into extortion and ransom from rich marble traders from Rajastan and Gujarat was wanrted for henious crimes in 9 states of India and he was arrested by the Andhra Pradesh police and was taken to Ahmedabad. His killing seems to have been a fall out of rivalries with other extortionist gangs and Vanjara, the Director General of Police was given the goahead for the encounter. Amit Shan was in no way involved in the execution style killing of Kousar Bi who was a witness to the killing of Shorabbudin and the telephonic conversations produced in court clearly show that the context of the exchange was limited to Shorabbudin, a criminal wanted in 9 states. The then UPA regime wanted to foist the case of wilful murder on Amit Shah by arguing that the encounter in which Ishrat Jehan was killed was a "fake encouter" and the three men and the girl ws killed in cold blood. This false allegation was mounted by suppressing two vital pieces of information. First, the Indian IB itself provided an affadavit stating that Ishrat and her companions were LeT terrorits. Second, David Coleman Headley in his custodial interrogation had stated clearly that Ishrat was given training in becoming a suicide bomber. The lengths to which the Congress under Sonia, Chidambaram and Shinde went to hide these facts and proscecute Amit Shah suggets that they were part of the conspiracy to carry out an assasination.

All these controversies swirling around Amit Shah led his to be arrested and he spent four months in Sabarmathi Jail before he was ordered out of Gujarat. These events shaped the political future of Amit Shah and in a way the rst of the country. Shah took up residence in Delhi and started planning for the 2014 General Election. His reorganization of the Party as the National Secretary was the turning point in the political fortunes of the BJP. While Narendra Modi is undoubtedly the tallest and the best Prime Minister India has had, ever, Amit Shah's role as the strategist cannot be gain said. Amit Shah made the BJP into a well oiled electoral machine and sought to involve people from the level of the booth right up to the Central Committee of the Party. He may not know, but Amit Shah took a leaf straight out of Lenin's advice to his parttment on the eve of the October Revolution of 1919. Organize the party at the level of the soviets. Another every important contibution of Amit Shah lay in collecting the documents relating to the Pary and making it availble on public domain. The BJP e Library is one of the finest and no political party can boast of such a fine line up of reseach and scholarly material. And Amit Shan was one of the first to understand the importance of "Big Data" in planning for the National Elections. BJP has one of the most sohisticated data cntres in which GIS enabled data for all the main Lok Sabha constituencies is available at the click of a mouse. The creation of this data base was due to the concerted efforts of computer savvy men and women who worked as volunteers for years on end.

Amit Shah is now the Hom,e Minister. He won from the Gandhinagar seat. What will be his main thrust. He will be ruthless in the pursuit of Indian polical objective and hence he will be in Machivalli's sense a prophet armed. He will be tough on naxalite violence and will not hesitate to use his immense political capital to strengthen the BJP in parts of India where it is weak. As far as terrorist viloence is concerned, there will be tough measures without too much though for collateral damage. Being honest to the core, Amit Shan can afford to be ruthless. And India demands ruthless action in Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

The book under review makes good reading. But it leaves the reader unsatisfied as important issues are ignored. I reccomend this book.

THE VICTORY OF THE BJP IN THE MAY 2019 ELECTIONS; IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

https://wordcraftandstatecraft.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-electoral-prospects-of-bjp.htmlA look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

There was no great surprise in the relection of the BJP and the victory of Shri Naredra Modi. In fact in a number of blogs we had made the same prediction and the actual number of seats won was close to the figure we had predicted in the blog (link above). 303 seats across the lengrth and breadth of the country. From 282 seats in the 2014 Elections the individual seats of the BJP has gone up to 303 and the Party contested little over 385 seats leaving the rest to its allies like Shiv Sena, JD  (U), Shiromani Akali Dal and the AIADMK. If we can use a cricketting metaphor from the T20 series, the srike rate of the BJP is very high meaning 80 % of the BJP candidates won their seats. In order to curb anti incumbancy, the BJP dropped nearly 105 sitting members. On the whole an impressive amndate and for the first time in India's electoral history, the percentage of votes polled have crossed 50% in vafour of the BJP. Most Governemnts have been formed with vote shares ranging from 28% to 34%. We now have a Governemnt with a vote share of more than 50%. All this means stability and the Government will be bold in taking decisons.

The Map given illustrates the safforon surge that has seen the emergence of the BJP as India's natural party of Governence. This victory was achieved in the face of the most vicious electorl campaign that India has even seen. Rahul  Gandhi, the putative challenger, had to tender an apology to the Supreme Court of India for calling Modi a "chor", thief. Other Congressmen emboldened by the aggression displayed by their leader were less than flattering in their rhetorical attacks on the Prime Minister. The more he was attacked, the greater was the backlash from the electorate. Then a variety of identity cards were pulled out: Dalis are in danger was one such. The fact is that the BJP has convincingly demonstrated its hold over the Dalit population by winning 75% of the reserved seats. In fact Congress did not win a single reserved seat nor did the Communists. For all their bluff and bluster both the Connumits and the Congress are bereft of any support amonmg the subaltern classes. Only the BJP commands the allegiance of the SC and ST communities. In the tibal belt of Central India the BJP held sway. All this goes to ahow thast the vicious campaign of polarization run by the so called Cetre Left Parties did not cut ice with the population.

The BJP won 18 seats in West Bengal and a clutch of seats in Orissa. The re election of Naveen Patnaik to power shows that the Indian electorate rewards good governence. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala the results show that people vote on emotional lines. There was sustained and calculated socialmedia attacks on Modi and the bJP throughout the 5 years that he has been in power and more so sicne the death of Jayalalitaa. The killings of the Tamils in Sri Lanka during the UPA rule was forgotten and the party which was then in power Congress joined hands with the DMK. The ease with which they joined hands shows that the politics of Tamil Nadu is still fluid and if BJP has effective leadership, the challenge can be met. In Bengal the BJP gave a resounding ideological challenge to the TMC. In Tamil Nadu the BJP takes dravidianist ideology for granted. It is not prepared to challenge the dravidianist dispensation.

What can India expect from Narendra Modi in the next five years. First, econom,ic development by huge investment in Infrasttructure will continue. New ports and transport hube will be established. On the National Security front major initiatives can be expected. The Nation Register of Citizens will be given full adminstrative backing as it has the approval of the Supreme Court. Identity politics will not be entertained thopugh the Congress habit of instigating the minorities will continue. Cattle Laws will be enforced so that the instances of gau rakshaks taking law into their own hands are reduced. Israel India partnership in Education will be encouraged. Modi will try to ease tensions with China as he is focussed on the internal developments and he cannot be distracted by adventures near the border.

The Economy will continue to grow at 7 to 8 % and further liberalization will be expected. Agricultural sector will be looked in and cold storage facilties and Silos for grain storage will be undertaken. In Higher Education there will be an emphasis on fundamental research.

"Is Modi the Divider iin Chief" A Response to Aatish Taheer and TIME

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Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, has been the target of malicious attacks ever since he became the Chief MInister of Gujarat in 2001 and the white liberal media has been maliciously targeting him from 2002, when the Gujarat Riots happened after the buring down of the train in Godhra in which 79 passengers returning from pilgrimage were killed. Since then there has been a steady barrage of unsubstantiated newspaper "articles" which have held Narendra Modi responsible for the Riots in Gujarat. This narrative was amplified by the the Congress Party which came to power on the strength of a self serving coalition in 2004. It may be stated that the Supreme  Court of India appointed a Special Investigation Team (SIT) and the Report exonerated Narendra Modi from any responsibility either of Omission or Commission. It is well known that more people were killed by Police firing than in the riots perse and this fact adds credence to the BJP claim that unlike the anti Sikh Riots of 1984 in which the Congressmen were let loose on the instigation of Rajv Gandhi and Arun Nehru, the Gujarat Riots of 2002 were expeditiously squelched. Police action against the rioters were prompt focused and decisive. Indeed the Congress Government which was ruling Madya Pradesh dis not send reinforcements requested by the Gujarat Government. Since then, a campaign was launched in concert with the Congress Party in India and the white International Liberal media which put all the blame for the riots on Modi, suppressing both the context as well as the Supreme Court monitored probe.

The first charge that Modi is populist is easily refuted. There has been no attempt on the part of Narendra Modi to initiate populist measures. In fact had he done so, there would not have been any doubt whatsoever about his election. The fiscal inclusion programme launched by Modi, his Clean India Campaign, his Medical Insurance Scheme are all important policy initiatives launched to improve the lives and living standards of the people. To mock such measures that enhance human dignity and trivialize them as populist is sheer cussedness. Secularism is another of the ideological shibboleths raised by Taseer. The Indian notion of secularism is decidedly founded on minority identity politics. The Constitution does not define Minorities and hence the Moslem population of India which is 120 million strong is treated a Minority. Infact, the failure of the Indian National Congress to safeguard the unity and integrity of India in 1947 itself suggests that the appeal of its ideology on the Moslems was rather weak. However, after Partition it successfully converted the Muslim population into a captive vote bank by demonizing the Hindu population. The Congress pursued a successful electoral strategy of combining Populism with Minority appeacement and Narendra Modi has rejected this policy. On the other hand, his social vision is inclusive in that he does not allow identity politics to determine the social equity measures and schemes like the Ujjal Yojana have benefited Moslems and Hindus alike.

The 5 years in which Modi has been in power has seen absolutely zero Communal clashes. Yet the liberal media in India alomg with a clutch of Bollywood personalities like Swara Bhaskar and Nazeeuddin Shah produced a narrative that mob lynching was popular and enjoys state support. Nothing could be more egregiously erroneous. The fact is that Cow vigilantism was highlighted during the course of the past five years and such incidents of "gau rakshaks" seizing cattle being smuggled across state borders in violation of the Law and Constitution have always taken place. Isolated incidents were strung together to create mass hysteria in the white world as if India was slipping into a barbaric age. And the attacks on Churches which prompted a host of Congress friendly "intellectuals" to return their National Awards were proved to be false flag attacks and those arrested for destroying Churches turned out to be mostly Christians and in one case a Moslem. The Jabua Nun Rape case accused turned out to be an illegal immigrant from Bangladesh. The damage caused by false media reports were not successfully repaired by the BJP which though well organised lacks intellectual ballast and hence such reports went largely uncontested.

Taseer makes ugly comparisons. Modi is not an Indian version of Bolsonaro of Brazil or Erdogan of Turkey. In both these instances the political power weilded by these men is backed by the threat of Military force. The Press is suppressed and there is hardly any dissent/ The fact that aatish Taseer is able to write and publish his trash and that has not been proscribed or banned itseld is proof that the Modi Government does not suppress Freedom of Expression. There has been a steady barrage of abuse directed at the Prime Minister. Sonia Gandhi called his "muth ka saudagar" Merchant of Death. One Congree Leader referred to him as "neech" a word that denotes contempt. Abuse is the only challenge that Modi faces and he has not bothered to respond. Rahul Gandhi the Crown Prince of the dynasty obsessed Congress Party calls his a "thief" in every public meeting. Just once Modi turned around and slapped Rahul across the face by pointing out the politically significant fact that Rajiv Gandhi had a major role in the Bofors Scandal.

Congreess Mukth Bharath the stated goal of the Modi Campaign is based on the recognition that Crime Corruption and Communalism are part of the political DNA of the Congress Party. 1984 anti Sikh Riots, the large scale corruption of the UPA regime particularly the 2G Spectrum Scandal and the constant appeasement of Muslims are all proof of the degradation in the political sphere. And Dynastic Politics is inherently anti democratic.

Aatish Taseer, the son of a Pakistani father and an Indian Mother should have been more circumspect in his writing. Brought up in India, he knows the reality. He has chosen to write a piece of garbage for the white liberal. Institutions have been stressed due to the bad language of the ruling Congress Party. The attempt to intimidated the Supreme Court by an attempt at impeachment of the Chief Justice attempted by the Congress which was reduced to a Herd of 44 only showed the desperation of the Congress. The attacks on the Election Commission of India and the Reserve Bank of India are not the work of the Modi Government.

The General Elections of 2019 are not yet over. One Phase is still left and the foul language of the Congress Dynastic Fascist courtiers all suggest a desparation. Modi has served the people of India. It is hoped that people have the intelligence to vote for a man who has contributed constructively to India and punish those responsible for inflicting huge damage to the Indian Economy. I will not be surprised if Modi gets around 270 to 290 seats in the May 2019 Elections.

Hindu Terror Myth or Reality A Review of R V S Mani's Insider Account of Ministry of Home Affairs

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The Myth of Hindu Terror: Insider Account of Ministry of Home Affairs
R V S Mani
New Delhi:Vitasta
2018

HINDU TERROR

The myth of Hindu Terror was propagated by the important lights of the discredited UPA regime such as P. Chidambaram, Sushil Kumar Shinde and Dig Vijaya Singha. It basically attempted to shift the responsibility for serious crimes against the Indian State like the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai, the Malegoan Bomb Blast Case and the outsourced attempted killing of the then Chief Minister of Gujarat, on to the Hindus and present them as concerted planned and executed plots of resurgent Hindu or Saffron Terror. The political purpose behind such a devious attempt at implicating people in plots where the responsibility lay elsewhere was to consolidate the muslim vote bank and discredit the BJP which was posing an impressive challenge. The book under review goes to prove that the state machinery was systematically used to undermine criminal investigations in order to sustain a false and questionable narrative of Saffron Terror. The author worked in a senior capacity in the ministry of Home Affairs, when Chidambaram the architect of the Saffron Terror Plot was the Home Minister and continued into the tenure of Sushil Shinde, the dismissed Police constable who rose to become the Home Minister of India. It is a crying shame that the position once adorned by the like of Sardar Patel and Lal Bahadur Shastri were disgraced by such men.

The book is extremely disturbing in that it documents various important cases in which investigations were derailed and evidence suppressed or worse manufactured. A Just yesterday the Nation was informed that Mazoor Azhar, the dreaded terrorist has been declared a "Global Terrorist". When UPA was in power, the present Union Minister Shri Hardeep Singh Puri IFS (retd) was the Permanent Representative  of India to the UN. The CBI, then under Chidambaram refused to part with evidence required to  file material before the Security Council regarding Hafiz Syed's role in the 26/11 killings keeping in mind the sensibilities of the Moslem vote bank. Such instances are several. On the Israt Jehan Case, the involvement of Chidambaram and his cronies makes chilling reading. Even after Ishrat Jehan's identity as a LeT terrorist was known, the Government of India tried to file a false affidavit before the Gujarat High Court by suppressing this vital and crucial detail. In fact, during the interrogation of David Coleman the fact that Ishart Jehan was an LeT "Operative" was known but this detail was deliberately suppressed. Similarly in the Malegoan Blast case also, the involvement of muslim terrorists was proved, but to facilitate the Safforn Terror Theory the FIR against the arrested minority criminals was set aside and a false narrative based on Col Purohit, a serving Army Officer and Sadhvi Pargya was created. This matter is still in Courts and if the evidence points to a false case has been fabricated, then the matter must be probed and punishment meted out. If Ministers holding responsible positions involve themselves in obstructing the course of investigation then they must be treated as abettors in the crime. It is clear that the Congress Party had a very deed association with the group which entered Gujarat with the sole purpose of killing  Narendra Modi the Chief Minister of Gujarat. It is to the credit of men like Vanzara that the plot was foiled.

The book exposes in some detail the workings of the Home Ministry during the turbulent UPA period. It is really sad that secularism has become a weapon to protect anti national elements.

Jallianwala Bagh and the Writing of History; Kim Wagner's An Empire of Fear and the Making of the Amritsar Massacre

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Jalianwalla Bagh: An Empire of Fear and the Making of The Amritsar Massacre
Kim  A. Wagner
Penguin India, 2019

Jalianwalla Bagh

Kim Wagner is a well known English Historian with books on the Nineteenth Century such as the study of Thugee and later the violence of the Indian Mutiny as evidence from the macabre evidence of the skull of Alum Beg. Now he has turned his attention to the Jalianwalla Bagh Massacre of 1919 and has published this book in time to trigger the political and academic interest in this singular event of the early twentieth century. He is a careful historian, unlike the Indian "historians" who are quite content reproducing large chunks of the Hunter Report and thickly marinate their so called hypotheses with nationalistic bombast of the Nehruvian variety. He has scrupulously adhered to the basic premise of good historiography by not letting post colonial sentiments of moral outrage and loud lamentations over the Evil of Empire overpower his narrative. The Massacre cannot be reduced to a label of identity and hence has to be treated as a "historical event" that needs to be reconstructed. And that Kim Wagner has done is a commendable manner. He has consulted all available records in the British and Indian Archives and the result is a tour de force of historical narrative, reconstruction and interpretation of the event. To most Indian Historians, the 1919 Massacre is an example of the brutality of the British Raj and indeed it was. That in itself does not explain the 1919 Amritsar Massacre. All Empires are brutal and the British one was not an exception. Even the First Award Wapsi of India, Rabindranath Tagore in his letter renouncing his Knighthood spoke only of the extreme cruelty of the Massacre. General Dyer was like Adolf Eichmann who was evil in a banal and incoherent fashion. Jalianwalla Bagh Massacre is a an event that reminds us that Evil lurks in every corner and is not the monopoly of one individual or institution.

Kim Wagner has drawn a very detailed picture of the Punjab right from the suppression of the Kuka Uprising/Rebellion of 1872. The uprising was suppressed with extrmeme violence as nearly a 100 men who were merely accused of participating in the Uprising were blown from the mouth of cannons. Without even consulting his superiors Commissioner Cowan executed the rebels in the most horrendous manner. Wagner explains the unnecessary cruelty in terms of the memory of Kanpur during the Mutiny of 1857. The Kuka Rebellion remains an enigma in Indian Historiography as the 68 rebels killed by Cowan whose names are known have not been recognized as Martyrs till this day. The SGPC has been clamoring for recognition till this day. The recent exchange of words between the Vice President of the Akali Dal , Mahjitia and the Congress Chief Minister of Punjab, Captain Amrinder Singh, the grand son of Maharaja Bhupinder Singh of Karpurtala underscores the fact that these events have an afterlife until this day.

There are certain events that Professor Wagner has excavated which seems to "normalize" the brutality of General Dyer. The Rowlatt Act was unpopular in the Punjab and both Dr Kitchlew and Dr Satyapal were leading agitations against it and were ably assisted by Hans Raj. Wagner makes a rather unkind statement about Hans Raj on page 51 casting serious aspersions on a man India regards a patriot.  Whatever be the antecedents of Hans Raj he was a good organizer and was instrumental in arranging the meeting on the fateful day at Amritsar. On 10th 11th and 12th of April there were a series of riots all over the city of Amritsar in which more than 20 Englishmen and women were killed and a Bank looted the manger brutally killed and set on fire. Wagner seems to believe that the context of the Massacre was set by these unfortunate events that brought back memories of 1857. By invoking the Memory of 1857, it seems to me that Wagner is not just trying to explain the event but also justify it. April 13 1919 happened to be the day of Baikashi, an important day in the social calendar of Punjab. Martial Law had been imposed after the British troops failed to contain the rioters on the Bridge leading to the centre of the City. And General Dyer went all arounf the City on the morning of April 13 proclaiming that Martial Law has been declared. Hans Raj and his companions went around stirring up a crowd for a meeting in Jalianwala Bagh which was to be addressed by Kanniyalal, a well known local leader, in the absence of Satyapal and Kitchlew. The question is: Does the fact that Dyer had issued the warning to the residents of Amritsar mitigate the enormity of the tragedy. The answer clearly is "NO".

The firing started at around 4 PM and continued for about 10 minute in which 1650 rounds were fired from 303 Enfield Rifles. The events at Sultanwind Gate of the previous day were still fresh in the minds of the people of Amritsar. The Gurkha Regiment and one more provided soldiers for Dyer's contingent that marched to Jalianwala Bagh even as a peaceful meeting was going on. Without warning, Dyer ordered his men to shoot at the crowd and justified his action before the Hunter Commission by saying that he had already warned the City, a reference to his proclamation earlier in the day. He was aware of the enormity of his actions and even the Lt Governor Michael O' Dwyer was at first reluctant to back Dyer that the shooting was necessary. Udham Singh killed O'Dwyer 20 years later in London.

The Amritsar Massacre led to the establishment of the Hunter Commission and after a detailed Inquiry held General Dyer guilty of over reaction and he was forced to resign. The Time ran a Fund for him which resulted in more than 26,000 pounds being contributed. The evil of his deed cannot be written off with a mere apology and India should not forgive the Jalianwala Bagh Crime.

The Electoral Prospects of the BJP

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The time has come to look back at the campaigns ans see where the Nation is heading towards in the forthcoming General Elections. The campaign  of the Congress centering around the dynastic mascot, Rahgul Gandhi, is surprisingly sharp and focused. The Assured Income scheme launched in the Manifesto is both innovative and attractive. By guaranteeing a minimum income of 72, 000 per family for a year as income support the Congress has created some ripples. Given the state of public journalism in India, the scheme has not attracted the kind of attention it deserves. The BJP brushed this scheme aside. However, the tax burden on the middle class will increase dramatically if this scheme is introduced and it will add to the inflationary woes. For the past 5 years India has seen 8% growth with around 3.5% Inflation. If the Congress comes to power Inflation will sky rocket and growth will plummet. What needs to be done is to work out the benefits already rolled out by the Modi Government to the people and make a comparative assessment.

Except for the one innovative policy measure, the dynastic fascists have run a highly divisive vituperative invective laden campaign. Modi was attacked in every possible manner. His Mother, Family, his personality were all viciously attacked to little effect. The more he was attacked the greater the popularity. Rahul even went to the extent of saying "Chowkidar Chor hai". The watchman is a thief, an attempted rebuke that was transformed into a splendid statement of approbation with people from all walks of life adding the word Cowkidar to their names. In the last General Elections Mani Shankar Ayer's jibe directed against Modi turned out to be a vote getter and this time if Modi is now set to trounce the Congress, the credit should go to Rahul and his meanly mouth jibe.

There is not a single allegation oc corruption against Modi. He has led, for the first time since Independent India, a Government that does not face a single charge. The Scams and Scandals of the Congress and its Allies have been the subject of numerous Inquires but given the state of the judiciary here in India, the prosecution has been tardy. Further, sections of the Judiciary seem to be playing footsie with the Congress as Chidambaram and his son havc secured bail 18 times already over the slew of cases they face. The entire Gandhi family is out on Bail facing serious fraud charges in the National Herald case. This case is one in which the entire property of the National Herald, a Congress Newspaper, was acquired by the first family of the Congress contrary to the rules and law presently in place.The eviction has been stayed by the Supreme Court. Yet another instance of the judiciary playing footsie with the Congress. The Higher Judiciary seems to be a partner in the UPA and it is fast losing the respect of the Nation

In spite of all these, the Congress and its allies are headed for a decisive defeat. Kamalnath, the Chief Minister of Madhya  Pradesh was caught in the Augusta Westland Scandal as some of the money got as kickbacks was recovered from his aides. The Pulwama Attack was sought to be politicized by Rahul and his associates. They wanted proof of the Attack implying that the Government was lying about the Balakot Air Strike. For the first time the Armed Forces became a factorin domestic political squabbles. And the Congress sought in vain to  turn the needle of suspicion on Modi and failed.

The North East will see a resurgent BJP and in Mamta's  Bengal the BJP has made significant inroads. Orissa will see a BJP victory in around 8 constituencies with a hung assembly and in nearby Andhra Pradesh the Jagan Mohan Reddy outfir is set to weep and BJP may win just 2 seats in AP. Tamil Nadu is always a difficult state to study as people show very erratic voting behaviour. BJP may win the Kanya Kumari seat, the Coimbatore seat and has a fighting chance in Ramanathapuram. We know that Kartok Chidambaram and Tirumavalavan will not taste electoral success.

At an all India level it would be safe to predict that Narendra Modi will form the next Government with the NDA getting around 315 seats.

The Festival of Democracy in India: Pranoy Roy and Navin Chawla

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India is the world's largest Democracy and in spite of the antics of political parties like the Congress,, DMK, the Communist factions and identity based political groups like the Akali and the Muslim League. And that is not a mean achievement in itself. Navin Chawla, the well known biographer of Mother Theresa, has said in as many words that the Election Commission of India is the real pillar of Indian democracy. He may not be off the mark as the Election Commission is universally feared by political parties across the political spectrum. Its ability to enforce a modicum of discipline in the conduct of elections shows that what it lacks by means of man power it makes up with robust moral authority by establishing its absolute independence from the Executive. The book Every Vote Counts: The Story of India's Elections is a racy highly readable gallop across all General Elections starting from 1952. He documents in rich details the trials and tribulations faced by the Election Commission in the early years under Sukumar Sen. The Election Commission has insisted on a set of practices in order to make the election process free and fair and the Model Code of Conduct in one such measure. There has been frequent allegations that the EVMs ( Electronic Voting Machines) are susceptible to hacking. This is an absurd allegation and given the fact that our political parties are filled with semi  literates such baseless allegations keep gaining traction come every election season. A stand alone machine manufactured to the specifications of the ECI by Bharath Electronic Corporation cannot be hacked as they are not connected to the internet and they are not compatible with blue tooth technology.

The Verdict: Decoding India's Election by the well known election analysts, Dr Pranoy Roy and Darob Sopariwala is a good introduction to the delicate business of election forecasting. They have done a commendable job of looking at the aggregate data relating to General Elections. Does Incumbency provide an advantage to the sitting MP. Do voters vote for political parties or on the basis of their perception of the merit of the candidates contesting. Do political parties decide on candidates on the basis of the winnability or other factors. Does party and its ideology play a major role in determining the outcome. What is the SWING factor and how can it be measured. How do votes get translated into seats. What are the major advantages and disadvantages of the first past the winning post system that we have. A major disappointment in the book is that it does not address the important issue of proportional representation. How does turn out on election day help or hinder the outcome. All these issues are discussed in great detail with a plethora of facts, tables and analyses.

Both these books must be read by everyone interested in Indian politics, particularly the Election process. Navin Chawla raised a very important point in his book and that needs to be further researched. There is no reference to political parties in the Constitution of India. In legal terms a political party has the status of an unincorporated Association. What kind of  democracy was envisaged by the founders and if we remember that Gandhi wanted the Congress to be dissolved, it is certain that the founders had a partyless democracy in mind. We have move a long way from that ideal.

Both these books are worth a read. Lucidly written and with a faint touch of humour I commend these writers for their worthwhile contributions.