Thursday, April 19, 2012

THE AGNI MISSILE WILL DEGRADE INDIAN SECURITY

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The early morning launch of the Agni V missile from the Wheeler Rocket Launcing base has been hailed as a great strategic breakthrough by self styled "defence experts" and "secuity analysts". The reginme in power has a stable of "tele intellectuals" who will justify each and every mistake of the Congress dominated UPA regime. Not one of them asks the question: How does the possession of the intermediate range inter continental ballistic missile capability help or enhance Indian security. I think for purely ideological reasons some self styled experts like Bharat Karnad who want India to embrace the US strategic doctrine vis a vis China are hailing the launch as a major security boost. Nothing can be more far from the truth than the delusion that ICSMs help India deter China. The reginme sponsored "strategists" want to use the non existent threat from China to drive India into the deadly embrace of the USA.

The range of the missile is around 5000 kms which means that much of China is actually not in the range of the missile. This missile is only an empty gesture of provocation by projecting China as threat. China does show its disdain from time to time and that is an expected reaction from a great power which no longer sees India as a rival or even as a threat but only as hired gun slinger for the USA. By taking the US strategic doctrine which posits China as a threat, India is making a grave mistake because the interests of the US and India do not converge. USA will always use Pakistan as its proxy and it is not worth the while for India to treat China as an adversary. India's difficulties with China are purely bilateral and there is no need for India to jump on to the American divide in order to settle its bilateral issues with China. On the contrary, China has shown great statesmanship in dealing with India and by using the Tibetan Independence issue to annoy China, India is not doing its national security or interests any good.

China does not need missiles to punish India. And India does not have the political strangth to use its missiles against Chia. In fact the USA will [put pressure on India to "show restarit" and India will as ususal make virtue of neccisity. So in what way does this 5000km rage missile contibute to Indian security. Against Iran, India is again making a grave mistake by taking the American argument that Iranian nuclear ambitions are a threat to the region. Iran is only reacting to Israel and it is a well known fact that Israel has nuclear capability. Any regional peace plan must recognise the Israeli capability as well.

China will soon emerge as the world's largest economy and India has a lot to learn from the Chinese experience. Even in human rights I think China has a better track record than some Indian states. Chinese universities have become the cynosure of the world and India cannot hope to catch up for decades to come. Instead of just aping the US let India rethink its strategic options.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Hon'ble Narendar Modi Stands Vindicated

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Since 2002, the Hon'ble Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendar Modi, has been battling charges ranging from criminal conspiracy, rioting, instigation to violence, abetment to murder and a host of imagined atrocities he is supposed to have committed. In the entire history of India no Chief Minister has had such a tough agni pariksha, a trial by fire. And the Hon'ble Chief Minister has come out unscathed. Witnesses were tutored, statements were fabricated, evidence manufactured, police officers dragooned into the campaign, but all these conspiracies fell by the wayside. The Special Investigation Team appointed by the Court has stated that there is not a shadow of doubt about the innocence of Hon'ble Narendar Modi. My question is quite simple: Sonia Gandhi called him a "merchant of death" (moth ka saugagar). Where was she when 15,000 Sikhs were massacred on the streets of New Delhi when her late husband Rajiv Gandhi was the Prime Minister and Congress goons ( in fact every Congressman is indeed a goon) went from street to street armed with the electoral rolls and pulled out Sikh men and mercilessly killed them. I have another question: Why did the Congress shield all the criminals involved and even appointed the ring leaders to important cabinet positions. Why was the investigation so shoddy that not a single convictions has been secured in spite of major Commissions of Inquiry. I think the answer is also simple: Congress is a violent dynasty obsessed party and it protected its goons and I am somewhat surprised that Atal Behari Vajpeyee did not reopen this issue when they had the opportunity.

Hon'ble Narendar Modi has repeatedly won the elections in Gujarat and even the Muslim population of Gujarat seems to have reposed its trust in him. The Congress brand of identity politics has lost ground in Gujarat and therefore under the compulsions of electoral politics the party tries to keep hounding him and Modi always bounces back looking smarter than ever before. When the Courts have found no evidence to even summmon Hon'ble Narendar Mosi I am somewhat shocked to see that Congress courtiers always bring up the alleged complicity of Modi in the post Godhra riots. As for as the Congress MP who was killed in the Housing Society incident, it is well known that he had a terrible reputation and his own enemies in the so called Congress party may have used the riots to have his butchered and Congressmen are known to indulge in factional fighting.

Teesta Setavad has been convicted of perjury in the Best Bakery Case in which she was found guilt of influencing the testimony of the witness. With sucgh a record the Bar Council of India should have debarred her but she still soldiers on spewing venom against the Chief Minister from Evey Television channel. The Hob'ble Chief Minister has been proven innocent and it is absolutely criminal pon the part of anyone to claim that he is implicated in the post Goshra riots. I agree that the Hon'b;le Chief Minsister has unconventional methods of dealing with organised crime, but his methods of course are effective. Gujarat has emerged as the fastest growing state in India, and the infrastructure and power situation are the envy of the nation. The rapid strides made in the field of solar energy makes Gujarat a pioneer and you have just to take a look at the mess in Rajasthan to understand where Gujarat stands in this field. Law and Order are of course on track and there are no major incidents of atrocities on tribal and SCs in the state. The Congress brand of politics hinged on the manufacture of communal violence and the state had paid a heavy price for that. Since Modi came to power, the Congress brand of street fascism has been checked and we have no one but the Hon'ble Chief Minister to thank for that. In spite of all this, Modi carries the Cross of Godhra and it will take him some more effort to wipe the stains off. Already the judicial verdicts have given an immense boost to his national standing and I hope that the faction ridden BJP closes ranks around the Hon'ble Chief Minister.

One last point. Gujarat is perhaps the only state where the Chief Minister is not corrupt, his ministers and officers are afraid of corruption and there is a modicum of moral authority.

Monday, April 2, 2012

INDIA IS A SOFT STATE AND HENCE CANNOT CARRY OUT THE DEATH SENTENCE

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

India became a soft state the day Nehru in his utter stupidity sated on the day Gandhi was shot that his assassin was a "hindu". This silly but devilishly perverse statement of Nehru introduced an element of ;communal ism: in the judicial process of India. Forever more the religious identity of the perpetrator of the crime became a mitigating factor in the execution of the judicial sentence. Shri Nathuram Godse was killed by Independent India solely because Nehu had decided that his Hindu identity made him far more culpable of the crime than anyother identity. Nearly 60 laong years later India is still to overcome the Nehruvian trap that makes the judician sentence hostage to the religious or ethnic identity of the convict. Among the many horrible things that Nehru was guilty of this is perhaps the worst.

Cut to the present. Nehru's grandson (given the dynastic fascism inherent in India the dynsty too pays for the crimes of the patriarch) was killed by a group of radical Tamils who were probably close to a faction within the Tamil nadu Congress. I cannot imagine how all the bigwigs of the party arrived only after the deed was done. They seem to have had prior information of the killing and hence carefully avoided shadowing him. The 3 killers of Rajiv Gandhi cannot be hanged because their ethnic identity as Tamil protects them. It is ironic that the grandfather of Rajiv Gandhi was primarily responsible for introducing the principle that a crime became serious or less serious depending on the identity of the criminal. The very parties that arranged to have Rajiv Gandhi eliminated are now sharing power in New Delhi and along with power they also share pelf and so the killers cannot be executed even though the Supreme Court has upheld the verdict and the President of India has rejected the mercy petition.

Now take he case of Rajoana, the convicted killer of Beant Singh, sometime chief minister of Punjab. The fact that the Congress Party organised the largest massacre of innocent citizens soon after the untimely death of Indira Gandhi has to be borne in mind while deciding the fate of this man. He has said that the sole motive for killing the Congress Chief Minister was to extract revenge for the 1984 anti Sikh Massacre in which Congress Party and its goons killed nearly15,000 Sikhs in New Delhi alone. This criminal organisation went on to appoint the ring leaders like Jagdsish Tytler and H K L Bhagat ministers in the Union Cabinet. So much for the so called secularism of the Congress Party. (The day the Congress Party is declared an illegal organisation and banned will be the day India can stand proud). Shri Rajoana did not plead for mercy from the criminals who carried out the worst atrocity in the history of Independent India. Quite rightly the death sentence cannot be carried out.

Do you think Kasaab will be hanged. I do not think so. The UPA may not give him their Bharat Ratna but I do not think the soft state like India can carry out this sentence either. Bad precedents have been set and the net result is that every political assasination is now hostage to a powerful identity based group in the political process. The Tamils think that Rajiv Gandhis killers represnt their "racial" pride, the Sikhs think that Shri Rajaona waged war for the self respect of the "panth" and I will not be surprised if Kasaab too like Afzal Guru finds supporters.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Should General V K Singh be sacked

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The Chief of the Indian Army, General V K Sngh is acting in a highly irresponsible manner when he makes allegations against the civilian leadership on a daily basis. This is not to say that the bureaucracy is not without its fault. For too long the top brass has had to sidle up to the officers of the Defence Ministry in order to protect their interests and in the process the whole structure of civil-military relations has come unstuck. Further, ever since the Bofors deal, corruption on a gigantic scale has been taking place in the procurement of equipment and aircraft for the Indian Armed Forces. Unfortunately, the Defence Ministry has institutionalised corruption and even A K Anthony who is said to be fairly straightforward is unwilling or unable to do anything about it. It is time to have a rethink on the whole question of procedure for defence procurement. Even serving Army, Navy and Air force officers act as agents for defence suppliers thereby muddying the waters, General V K Singh knows about al this but chose to keep quiet until the very last leg of his term as Chief of the Arny Staff. His eloquence at this stage is not to be viewed as a patriot out to do good to his country, but rather as a frustrated man venting his spleen at all and sundry. If he is happy bringing out a scandal a day let him do so. The question is: What did he do as Army Chief to stem the rot. The answer to the question is simple: He did nothing. He was part and parcel of a corrupt organisation though he himself may have been very circumspect.

General V K Singh has exceeded all limits in his tirade against the civilian leadership. We know that the MOD is stuffed with agents, crooks, double dealing criminals and what not. We do not need General Singh to tell us that. After losing his battle on the age issue with the Government he has opened up not just a second front but a whole series of skirmishes with the Government. The BJP which has jumped into the fray with alacrity should ponder over the consequences of Sinhg's actions. I think supporting V K Singh may not be in the political interest of the BJP though it certainly embarrasses the Government

The Government of India, rocked as it is by a blizzard of scandals does not have the moral authority to dao anything and the man refuses to go quietly. He must be shown the door otherwise the civil-military relations will be damaged beyond repaid. The actions of General Singh in writing to the Prime Minister, bypassing the chain of command, raking up old scandals whose only purpose is to create confusion constitute misconduct and indiscipline and the Govenment must reduce Singh in rank and turn him out.

Even in advanced Western democracies Generals who take their starched uniforms, their stars, their batons and other baubbles of office too seriously are turned out unceremniously. President Obama sacked his Commander in Aghanistan, Gen Macrystal, when he stepped out of line. And this is the way it should be. General Singh seems to be bent on creating confusion and his leaked letters are likely to be misread of several countries. Instead of harping on China as a threat, it is time for India to realise that China as a great and powerful nation does not expect anything more than fair treatment from India. Ever since India joined hands with uSA, the Army has become ungovernable in India and General Singh is only a symptom of this.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

THE MASSACRE OF AFGHANS BY STAFF SGT ROBERT BALES: USA AND HUMAN RIGHTS

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Staff Sgt Robert Bales of the 3rd Stryker Brigade on his 4th tour of duty left his military base, loaded his kit and set off for the village of Panjawi in Kandhahar province of Afghanistan and went on a killing spree that will cost the US quite a lot of political goodwill and credibility. On several past occasions I have drawn attention to the systematic rampage of US military personnel in Iraq and even when the killers were identified as was the case in the Mahoumadiya incident, the culprits were acquitted after a perfunctory trial in which the pretence of "human rights" and the US military's commitment to civilised values is paraded before the whole world. Of course the order to kill does not come from the top political or military leadership, but the lack of systemic checks and controls make it easy for such rampages to take place. It now transpires that Staff Sgt Robert Bales was involved in a firefight in Iraq in which 250 Iraqi civilians were killed without the loss of a single US soldier. He received a military decoration for his heroism. No wonder.

Afghanistan is largely out of US control/ President Karzai commands neither loyalty nor respect among the people. He surrounds himself with hired American Security Guards and the burning of the Koran, the desecration of Afghan bodies by US soldiers and now this killing spree by Staff Sgt Bales, a decorated war hero, only add to his cup of woes. Barack Obama's policy of counter insurgency has become unstuck and is unlikely to lead to any great US success. Pakistan is on the boil and there is also growing resentment against the US drone attacks on Pakistani targets. The NATO attack on Pakistani military base in which 29 Pakistani soldiers were killed is still simmering. All in all the US is getting deeper and deeper in a mess from which retreat may be well neigh impossible.

Already there is an attempt to shield the soldier who was responsible for the massacre. He suffered a head injury and therefore had diminished competence. If this is so why was he not discharged on the grounds of psychological impairment. The foreclosure of his house upset him, according to one report. Millions of Americans have suffered due to the absolute depravity of the Wall Street thugs and they do not go on a killing spree. Another pointed out that this soldier actually enjoyed killing civilians as he was very proud of his "heroism" in which 250 Iraqis were killed during the course of just one hour of fighting. When soldiers are dehumanized in this manner you can expect consequences.US diplomats go round the world preaching "human rights" and issue threats to heads of state who are involved in deadly conflicts with known terrorist groups. Is not the US military responsible for the actions of this man. By what law should this Staff Sgt Robert Bales be prececuted: as a war crime he should face the Hague. The US has created a kangaroo court whenre Black and Slavic "war criminals" are araigned. Staff Sgt Rober Bales was secretly removed from Afghanistan and he is now in Fort Leavenworth. The US like the old Anglo-Saxon countries is asserting the right of extra territoriality and unfortunately the rest of the world seems to acquiesce in this. It is time for people of the world to say that even in normal rules of engagement during conflict, civilian life must be protected. Robert Bales may not be acting on the explicit instructions from his superiors and that may well be a defence, but that fact has to be established in a credible non partisan manner. US military cannot protect its own by sitting in judgement and then announce to the whole world that the US is a champion of human rights. The conduct of US military in Iraq and Afghanistan has already made such assertion laughable and sonner Barack Obama realises it the better for the world.

THE UNION BUDGET: SQUARING THE CIRCLE

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The political crisis that has overtaken the UPA II is largely of its own making. The dynastic fascist party, the Congress, seems to forget that it not not the master of its own house and therefore behaves as though it has an absolute majority like the bad old days. It has learnt the very difficult art of making policy announcements only to sheepishly retract them later. The FDI in Retail sector and the National Counter Terrorism Center both ran into rough weather and the Center looked very sheepish. Now we have the fiasco of the Railway Budget with Mamta claiming a new constitutional provision. A minister from her party must seek approval from the party supremo to present the budget. The Railway Budget itself is a relic of the early days of Independence and we need toive up this senseless practice of having a separate budget for the Railways: it gives the Railway minister a false and illusory sense of his importance. Lalu Prasad Yadava as a Railway Minister made a mockery of the budget and the fellow even fooled the Harvard Business School.



Dinesh Trivedi has no legal or constitutional constraint to consult his Party supremo over the budget. He is accountable to the Lok Sabha for the budget and the Budget is a Cabinet document. If Mamata has any problems with the budget she should withdraw form the UPA and vote against the regime in power. But like every Congress politician, she too has learnt the fine art of barking and not biting. She wants to threaten the regime by attacking her own minister, but not the Government on whose behalf Dinesh Trivedi has presented the Budget. The present regime headed by ManMohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi set a wrong constitutional and political precedent when they succumbed to the old DMK gangster from Tamil Nadu, Karunanidhi, when he forced the UPA regime to sack his nephew Dayanidhi Maran from the Cabinet ehen there was a feud between the sons and daughters of the several wives of that old fossil from Chennai. Since Man Mohan Singh created a bad precedent both constitutionally and politically by sacking Dayanidhi Maran, he is now hoist on his own petard. Had that Karunanidhi not done that act of having his nephew sacked, then the 2G scandal may not have happened and one of his daughters, Kanimozhi, may not have been caught in the biggest scandal of Independent India. Serves that old bandicoot right. The Minister for Railways is accountable to the Lok Sabha and Shri Man Mohan Singh must have the courage to tell the cotton sari Didi from Kolkotta that she cannot demand the sacking of a Minister on purely partisan grounds. As usual the Regine will prevaricate and in a day or two Trivedi will be shown the door and the same budget will be passed without anymore storms in Bengali tea cups.

The Union Budget is caught between two diametrically opposite objectives. It want to slightly bridge the growing fiscal deficit and at the same time raise resources by way of taxes without incurring the wrath of the allies who will face the wrath of the people in the next elections in a few months from now. The Budget does little to enhance growth and stimulate the economy. In fact the Budget will add to the inflationary pressure that already exists. Inflation will push up interest rates and hence the overall growth of the economy will around 5 to 6 % only. Social spending must be curtailed and the badger does little in that direction. The move to amend the foreign transactions taxation provision retrospectively from 1962 is legally questionable but that is the only way the Government can come out of the Vodofone mess. I think this provision must be passed on the grounds of necessity and I hope the Courts concur.

The budget remains a flawed document and in all probability will be tha last budget of this regime. The sooner it goes the better.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

MAFIA CULTURE IN INDIA; IN INDIA DEMOCRATIC POLITICS HAS LED TO CRIMINALISATION OF THE PUBLIC SPHERE

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The BJP always claims that it is more civilised than the Congress Party with its dynastic fascism and courtier culture. Many may be inclined to wonder after the recent train of events. Like the Congress Party, the BJP is riven with factionalism and the appointment of the National President, a man virtually unknown in the rest of India was a big mistake and the party is paying the price for this. I blame the leaders like Susma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley for dividing the Party on favtional lines. Every bJP Government in India ia as corrupt and criminalised as the Congress Government and we wonder as we approach the next election: What is the alternative for India. Instead of introspecting and understanding the loss of its support base and the rapid erosion of its popularity, BJP is as usual indulging in gimmicks. With the exception of Gujarat all other BJP ruled states are as bad as the Congress rule, in some respects even worse.

Shivraj Chaouhan, the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, promised good governance and what he did was to hand over the state to various mafia groups who seem to enjoy the protection of the BJP big wigs. The routine murder of RTI activists and more recently the brutal killing of Shri Narendar Kumar an IPS officer by the timber Mafia is a brute reminder that the BJP ruled states are as bad as Congress ruled ones. What is worse, the government made an attempt to pass off the brutal killing as a mere accident. If police officers are killed so brutally while performing their duty then we have cause to be worried. Each time such events occur we in the media refer to the killers using a broad generalisation"mafia". We are unable to pin down the names behind the abstraction called the "mafia".The biggest mafia groups in the country are the political parties themselves and unless the Election Commission of India is empowered to audit their accounts nothing serious will happen.

Just think of the endless lists of mafias we read in the newspapers: Tendu leaf mafia, timber mafia, coal mafia, oil mafia, tanker mafia, NRGEA mafia, railway mafia, defence contractor mafia, infrastructure corridor mafia, dalit mafia, OBC mafia, muslim mafia, jat mafia, labour union mafia, land mafia. I can go on and on. The point is made. In India after successive Congress regimes the MAFIA have inherited the land. And the people van do nothing about it. It is time to make attack on public servants a serious offence. The police have lost all credibility due to the absolute spinelessness with which they fawn at the feet of the illiterate ministers and it is time the police took law into their own hands and protected themselves. If the police kill criminals then the wind call goes off that it is a"fake encounter" like the cry against the Tamil Nadu Police when they gunned down Veerappan. HumanRights's activists have nothing to lose and hence they court cheap popularity by indulging in inane rhetoric. If criminals are armed the police must be empowered to shoot to kill as is done is Western democracies like UK, France and USA. Even the Bhattala House event in which a police officer was killed is termed "fake encouter" by the like of Digvijaya Singha.

In 280 districts of India, some kind of mafia is operating and the Home minister is unable to do anything because his own political legitimacy is in question. Unless organised crime is dealt not as a mere law and order problem but as a serious political issue more honest officers will die. In Tamil Nadu when Kanimozhi's father was misruling the state 6 Thasildars were killed by the "sand mining" mafia. After a meagre compensation nothing more was done. Even Jayalalithaa has done nothing which only goes to show how deep rooted the rot is.

BJP kept Yeddurappa and his mining mafia, the Bellary Reddy Brothers, in power and the result is that in Karnataka the BJP will not be re elected ever again. It is time the politicians realise that the purpose of politics is service not crime and the people of India must not vote for criminals.

Western political theory with its Weberian categories of legitimacy and Habermas' notion of public sphere will not be able to unerstand the ease with which criminals are able to acquire political legitimacy in India. The distinction between out law and citizen in becoming increasingly blurred so much so the time will soon comw when people will turn to organised groups whoc are outside the politcal sphere to provide leadership. This trend is already vissible as large swathes of the country are under the control of "naxalites" or radical Maoist groups. These organised violent groups provide a modicum of security in a society in whci criminals can easily be elcted to the Lok Sabha and other state assemblies. In fact parties like the Congress, the Samajwadi party and to a lesser extent the BJP all provide political support to criminals.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

2012 Assembly Elections and their Implications

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The results of the 2012 Assembly Elections are finally out and just as I predicted the Congress was soundly routed in all states except Manipur. The defeat of the Congress in the politically significant states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh will have a bearing on the survival of the U PA regime in New Delhi. The dual headed hydra--Sonia and ManMohan--never the best of constitutional arrangement has been decisively rejected by the people. Even in Uttarkahnad the difference between the Congress and the BJP is only one seat and so the Congress cannot crow about its victory. Pretty Face, Rahul Gandhi, has been shown to be an electoral non-starter and with an encore performance as in Bihar, the significance of the "dynasty" in the politics of Northern India stands considerably diminished. I cannot say that the electorate has dealt a death blow to dynastic fascim as Akilesh Yadava, the son of Mulayam Singh Yadava has been given a mandate to rule and his only claim to fame is that he is the son of Mulayam Singh Yadava. Until the people of India learn to disregrad birth and lineage and start voting on the basis of the merits of the candidates on offer, India cannot be regarded as a mature democracy.

Rahul Gandhi behaved as if he has the right of birth to high office. The result has been a know-out blow to the pretensions of the Congress "yuvaraja". The coutriers that his young yuvaraja had gathered, the likes of Salman Kurshid, Digvijaya Singh, Beni Prasad Verma and others, all stand exposed. The Congress played the worst kind of identityu politics when they raised the bogey of "reservations " for Muslims knowing well that it will polorise the voters. The voters of UP have right;ly rejected identity politics based on religion. The defeat of Mayawati shows that even identiry politics based on caste was rejected by the UP voter. Rahuls behavior on the campaign trail was erratic to say the least. Throwing garlands back to the crowd something his grandmother used to do, did not go down well with the voters. He is just too young for this kind of patronizing conduct. Tearing up paper in public and other such gestures was not liked by the people. Above all his comment that people of UP are beggras who work in Mumbai has cost the Congress dear. I belong to Gorakhpur and do not like my people to be so characterized.

The victory of the Samajwadi Party will unleash the forces of caste goondaism in UP. The 5 years of Dalit rule has made people of UP politically aware and conscious and they will not take kindly to Yadava hegemony. I think there will be an increase in the social temperature in UP because of the victory of the Yadava dominated SP. The Muslims have returned to the SP this time round and so we can expect a great deal of communal violence in UP as a consequence of SP victory. I think the victory of the SP will soon be regretted by the people of UP. And the prospects for the survival of UPA II have sharply decreased as a result. The performance of the Congress is so bad that in the next Lok Sabha elections if we are to extrapolate from these results, Congress will win less than n6 seats.

The BJP fared very poorly though there has been a slight increase in the voting percentage. I think the choice of candidates was faulty because of factionalism Uma Baharathi tried her best and failed. I think the Party must craft a social coalition based on a unity between upper castes, backward Rajputs and dalits. Only such an orientation will help the BJP in the next General Election. In Punjab as I predeicted the Akalis and the BJP have won. The Congress stands humiliated. I do not know how the Congress could even hope to get Sikh votes after its crimian masscre of Sikhs in 1984. I hold the Congress Party responsible for this massacre and I think its leaders need to be punished. Anyway Punjab has redeemed itself by rejecting the Congress.

Political instability will now increase and I think India is headed for a poll in 2

Saturday, March 3, 2012

THE SECRET VATICAN ARCHIVES REVEALED

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books



The recent decision of the Vatican to reveal the secret documents that that lain hidden in its extensive secret achives is a welcome step. For centuries the Vatican has hoarded its documents and this tendency has of course fueled speculation that often results in conspiracy theories doing the rounds. If the Vatican had embraced the principle of openess and transparency, the sordid sage of the Da Vinci Code could have been avaided. Speculation enters where there is an opaque blanket of fog and the only way to dispel it is by exposure to the searching light of historical scrutiny and thia is exactly what the Pope has done.

The Secret Archives of the Vatican extend over 85 miles of shelves and the alcoves are stuffed with records going back to the fall of the Raman Empire. It is sometimes said that the very altar of the cathedral on Capitol Hill is located on the tomb of Saint Peter. The velum documents and richly illustrated Bibles are really a treasure that belongs to the whole world and Vatican is doing us a favor by putting them on public display

The secret documents contain records of the Trial of the Knights Templars when the entire order was proscribed and the Knights hunted and burnt at the stake. The record of the Inquisition form another interesting category of documents. The excommunication of the great reformer, Martin Luther, which unleashed the Protestant movement or the Lutheran movement is another interesting historical record. The signed retreaction of Galileo who was forced to withdraw his famous book in which he put forth his heliocentric theory of the universe in opposition to the theory favored by the Catholic Church is another interesting document. During the Second World War when the Germans were busy exterminating the Jews,the Holocaust, the Roman Catholic Church remained a silent spectator. There are also historians like David Goldhagen who argue that the Church was an active accomplce in the Holocaust. The secret archives may shed light on this rather sordid chapter in the history of the church.

Openess and transparecy have never been the guiding principles of any totalitarian religious movement and the Catholic Church is not an exception. However the decision to display the secret archives and to upload part of the Archives on to the WEb site are certainly welcome.

THE MURDER OF GIGAPEDIA: THE WORLD OF STUDENTS AND TEACHERS MUST PROTEST

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Elizebeth Eisenstein in her study entitled The Printing Press as an Agent of Change argued that it was the availability of knowledge across class lines that paved the way for the great changes that we now associate with the Industrial Revolution and the Scientific Revolution. The printed book was empowering because it broke the monopoly of the clerical and the warrior groups to literacy and in the eighteenth century we see the sons and grandsons of artisans and peasants emerge as scientists and inventors. Just think of James Watt and George Stephenson. Unfortunately in the poorer parts of the world which became the site aggressive colonisation, the advent of the Internet in the first decade of the 20th century was in many ways the beginning of the print or knowledge revolution which Europe witnessed in the eighteenth century. It is this historic change that is being undermined and subverted by the hopelessly criminal act of the US Congress in forcing knowledge sharing sites like Gigapedia to shut down. Non White researchers and students who do not have access to world class libraries like New York Public Library, Harvard University Library or the Library of Congress were avid and dedicated users of Gigapedia and up to date knowledge was available at the click of a mouse. The forced shut down of sites like Gigapedia is a direct assault on the right of every human being to education and cultural improvement, rights enshrined in the UNESCO charter and several international conventions and treaties.

The Gigapedia was not a piracy site. It was only a file sharing site that was not doing business when it allowed students and teachers from the non white parts of the world to read and store books and journals. It did not make its vast collection of books into a monopoly. On the contrary, it allowed access in a truly democratic manner to all without any restriction. Even Microsoft which funded the Gutenberg Collection is slowly making access more and more difficult and everyday the number of books available for free download is actually decreasing. Gigapedia, like Wikipedia has supporters all over the world and we must educate,organise and agitate over the efforts to curtail our right to knowledge. The corporate interests of USA and Europe are making efforts to curtail our freedoms and the assault on Julian Assange and the Wikileaks is just one of the more egregious of such attempts. Gigapedia was not in the business of exposing corporate secrets or scandals. It only provided a platform for interested scholars and researchers to interact. The Book Reviews on the site were more impressive than those found in NYRB or the Times Literary Supplement. We were getting access to the best minds this globe had to offer and we all stand impoverished as a few smug white men in burlap suits sitting in the US Congress decide that our quest from knowledge can be equated to the corporate greed for profits. Like the battle against Slavery, this battle too has to be won and I know that our side will win. Welcome to the fight as Lazlo says in Casablanca.

I teach in an Indian University and my area of teaching includes Global History and Historiography. Every semester I used to burn CDs with all the important books downloaded in the pdf format and gave the cds to the students. In our University nearly 60% of the stdent population owns a Laptop or desk top computer and there are nearly 800 to 1000n systems on Campus including an all night reading room with Computers which run on the Linux Operating System. Gigapedia was heaven to us as we could now make are students globally competitive. That dream lies cruelly shattered due to the mistaken priorities of the US political class. And both the Democrats and Republicans are united on this one issue.

I appeal to all those engaged in Teaching, Research and connected with the industry of education to take up the cause of saving knowledge sharing sites like Gigapedia or library.nu.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

"Encounter killings" in Chennai: Was Police Action Justified or was it a case of "unrestrained killing"

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Chennai, the capital of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, was rocked by a spate of daring daylight heists. At least 2 banks were looted in broad daylight and nearly 50 lakhs was carted away. The Chief Minister, Ms Jayalalithaa, unlike here predecessor is extremely strong on the issue of Law and Order and her regime is usually marked by strong police law enforecement. Her quich intervention is many instances of "land grabbing" by DMK political goondas has created a good impression in the minds of the ordinary people. Obviously the bank robberies had dented this carefully crafted image and Tamil Nadu was being projected as a state without security in the vernacular media. This negative perception prompted the Chief Minister to instruct the police to act swiftly and decisively. And that the Police under J K Tripathi, IPS did. Was the police action justified?

At midnight, 23rd Feb 2012, a posse of policemen surrounded a house in Velachery, a subburb of Chennai and killed 5 young men in the building. The Chennai Police claim that they acted in self defence a claim strengthened by the fact that 9 sophisticated revolvers were recovered from the site. The fact that the men were armed and hence dangerous brings up the question of "propotionate force". Even in UK and USA when the police deal with armed criminals, the use of force including "shoot to kill" is conceded. The real problem is to assess the "real and present" danger confronted by the Police in the actual situation of encounter. Post facto one can make all kinds of speculation, but the fact remains that the 5 men were armed with sophisticated weapons.

The Newspapers, The Hindu and The Deccan Chronicle, have pointed out that there were no bullet marks onthe walls of the room in which the encounter took place. The washing machine and the television were both in tact. This fact makes the human rights activists suspicious. I too wonder how many rounds were fired. I would like to know whether the firing was from inside the room to which the police party responded or whether the firing was only after the police gained entry into the room, The latter fact does not necessariy mean that the encounter was "fake" because weapon swere found on the site that clearly belonged to the criminals.

It has beome customary to raise doubts about the police version of events because the credibility of the police force is low and the courts grant the benefit of doubt even when circumstantial evidence is strong.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

THE KILLING OF FISHERMEN BY THE ITALIAN MARINES OFF KOCHI; WHY IS INDIA AGGRESSIVE

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Rule of Law is virtually unknown in India. Every criminal with political protection can escape justice with impunity. Courts can easily be persuaded to render judements which are to say the least quite insipid and bland. Think of the S P S Rathore case or the judgements in the Jessicca Lal case or even the Nitish Kataria case. I am saying this only to remind the reader that Indian legal system is not robust as any Western country.

A few days back two Italian marines,Latore Massimilliano and Salvatore Girone shot and killed 2 fisherman from Tamil Nadu off the coast of Kochi.They were marines protecting a cargo/ container ship under the command of Enrica Lexie.The initial justification given by the Captain of the ship, who refused to surrender, was that the two fishermen were "pirates". The threat of piracy was invoked as the justification for the killing of two non-white men by two Europeans. Are we going back to the days of the Portuguese when Indians were killed on the high seas for no reason except that the ships did not carry a cartaz issued by the Goan government. No country can ignore the affront to its national dignity which is posed by trigger happy Europeans.

After much delay the ship and the two marines surrendered to the harbour police at Kochi. Initially they claimed that the ship was in international waters, an argument that he GPS data from the ship itself disprover. Then the argument was made by the consular authorities that the 2 marines would be tried in Italy. Are the Italians so naieve as to think that because India has an Italian ruler frommthe Maino family, extra territorial rights are to be enjoyed by trigger happy Italian marines. The Quatrrochi Affair afterll and the Bofors Scandal are still simmering under the surface. So India,at least for now put on a tough act. The question is will India keep up the tough stand.

I venture to suggest that once the noise dies down and the UP election is over, India will start diluting its stand and will release the 2 marines to Italian custody with the gentlemen's agreement that they spen time in Italina jail, an agreement that Italy will not openly flout but will not keep. Right now it is politicallly inexpedient for India to appear lenient toward the Italians. Sonia, the dynastic figure head, does not want another row over favors shown to the denizens from the land of Maino. That is all. The Congress Government is indulging in bravado and I think the Italians will keep their mouth shut and go along with the drma which is being played out in Kochi.

I hope I am wrong but I have always been right in all my predictions.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Israel Attacked in New Delhi" Some Questions and Pakistan

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Yesterday a bomb ripped through the car in which an Israeli embassy staffer Ms Yehoshua Koren, the wife of the defence attache, was travelling. The exposive used was similar to the one used in Georgia and the bomb was pbobably just little bigger than a human fist. Surprisingly, the attack took place less than 50 meters from the residence of the Prime Minister, Man Mohan Singh. Ms Koren suffered serious spinal injuries but the efforts of the doctors in one of New Delhi's Hospitals saved her life. Now questions are being asked about the motives for the attack and the perpetrators of this terrorist attack. One theory doing the rounds is that thiis was a revenge for the killing of 5 Iranian nuclear scientists whose cafrs were blown using a similar device. Another suspect is the Hizzbollah of Lebonon. None of these theories seem to make any sense.

Iran is facing international furoe over ts nuclear plans and will certainly not want to draw attention to itself in these circumstances. Iran generally prefers to let things quieten down rather than stir things up. Its nuclear plans are likely to come to fruition in the course of the next few months and this is hardly the time for any brazen act of bravado. Iran does not use assasination as a tool. Israel, on the other hand has had a long history of using violence against its known and imagined enemies. Further, Iran will not like to jeopardise its relationship with India by staging an attack on Israel on Indian soil. India is the only major country which is opposing sanctions and iran needs the support of India on this vital matter. Further, Iran and India have virtually clinched the pipeline deal and therefore will not risk antogonising India. Though, India is opposed ti Iran's nuclear ambitions, it is firmly opposed to any coercive measures to bring Iran to heel. With so much at stake, we cannot blame Iran for the attack in New Delhi.

As for the Lebonese Shiaa Hizzbollah, it would be a mistake to regard it as a surrogate of Iran. While Iran does have influence over the body, the Lebonese have to worry about their own problems and Iran's nuclear ambitions are certainly not one of them. Theonly country whc=ich has the means and the ability to strike in this manner is Pakistan. The ISI has been training terrorists for a long time and the uSA has been warning Pakistan over the overt and covert support it extends to terrorists all over the world. Pakistan being a predominantly Sunni country has been systematically slaughtering the Shiaas who are concentrated on the Western part of the country. The ISI will certainly like the world to believe that Iran is behind the attack and thereby motivate Israel to launch a strke against Iran.

Israel will certainly find out the truth, unlike the Indian Inlelligence which is non existent. The MOSSAD is the world's best secret service and I am sure that it will soon track down and elimeinate those responsible fr this attack

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Subramanian Swamy in Indian Politics: Why India cannot do without him

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The field of Indian politics is crowded with every kind of undesirable criminal who somehow get elected to Parliament and pose as "peoples Representatives". In most Western democracies one can expect a basic level of education and civility from the elected representatives. In India politicians tend to focus on personalities rather than the issues and hence we need to take personalities seriously. We have had number of colourful figures--Raj Narain, Ram Manohar Lohia, Jayaprakash Narain etc.All these personalities have contributed immensely to Indian politics, either in a negative manner like Raj Narain or positive manner like Lohia and Jayaprakash. However there is one and only Subramanian Swamy. A Tamil Iyer,and I must say that like the Jews, the Brahmins of Tamil Nadu are targeted by the Dravidian parties,by birth Subramanian Swamy has earned for himself an abiding place Indian politics by sheer strategic intelligence and perseverence. Given the overwhelming superiority in numbers commanded by the backward caste, the political scene is grim for the brahmins and dalits. In this menagerie Swamy has created a niche for himself.

Electoral democracy has given space to the criminals who masquerade as politicians and men like Swamy cannot be a match to the Mulayam Singh Yadava, Laloo Prasad Yadava, and D P Yadava. He does not have the muscle power or the money power to take on the dynastic fascism of the Congress. Therefore he has concentrated on "issue based politics". This means that ideology is not the main factor in his politics. Rather he creates a space for himself by exploiting the very weaknesses of the so called political class. Swamy is well aware that Indian dynastic fascism is both corrupt and criminal so he uses the laws of the land to corner the politicians. He is a highly educated individual and the semi-literate Indian politician is virtually defenceless in front of him.Men like A Raja, the DMK minister who is in jail, should have known long ago that the backward class dominated DMK will sacrifice him and that is exactly what happened. Kani is out and Raja is in. Men like Swamy understand the caste dynamics of Tamil politics and play the tune like an accomplished pianist.

Swamy, the Harvard Ph D, is sometimes mistaken to be a serial blackmailer, targetting cash heavy politicians in order to force them to offload some of the mullah. I too for sometime believed that this was indeed the case. I have now come to realise that while Swamy ruthlessly pursues his quarry, he does not negotiate with it and so he is not a blackmailer, as he is sometimes portrayed to be. Had this been the case the Harvard Zero, Chidambaram would have long ago purchased peace. Swamy's technique is to use the law and procedures to harass the politicians who he perceives to be anti-national. He has the ability to research the subject thoroughly and being a well known economist has an array of sources which he deploys in a deft manner. Dr Arun Shourie was one such individual, but has since become a writer close to the BJP. Swamy, however, is still independent.

In the world according to Swamy, there are no permanent friends and permanent enemies in politics and he truly lives up to the golden adage of Machiavelli: it is better to be feared than to be loved. Indian politicians from across the political spectrum loathe Swamy and this is proof that he is on the right track. Attempts to target and paint him using the Congress party's contribution to politicalexicon of India--communal-- will not wash because in his personal life, Swamy shows the he is more secular than Nehru who did not want his daughter to marry a parsi. Even India's animus against Meneka seems to have had a communal and caste tinge to it.

Swamy's list of "victims" is impressive: Jayalalithaa, Ramakrishna Hegde, A Raja and scores more. Some his his antics have been wasteful. He brought down the Vajapayee Gavernemnt in 1999 by one vote on sheer whim. He had no hesitation in teaming up with J Jayalalithaa and Sonia to bring down the NDA Government. I do not know what he achieved by doing this except the vicarious pleasure of tweaking Vjaapayee's nose. He relentlessly pursued the cases against the other major crimianl organisation in India, apart from the Congress, viz the DMK and kept the spotlight on the Jain Commission of Inquiry which indicted the leadership of the DMK for various acts in support of the LTTE. He kept the pressure on the DMK until the Congress forits own political reasons jumped into bed with the DMK. Even in the 2G Scandal nothing would have happened without the sustained intervention of Swamy.

I think India needs a ruthless hunter like Swamy and I say all power to him.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

IRFAN'S CRIME; TEACHERS ARE AN ENDANGERED SPECIES IN INDIA

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Adjectives fail when we try to describe the brutal killing of a teacher in front of her whole class by a student. In Chennai, Tamil Nadu three days back a 14 year old student called Irfan killed his Hindi teacher Ms Uma Maheswari, 39, mother of 2 young girls in front of the entire class. Unfortunately since the boy age is only 14 chances are that given the lax state of justice in India, he will escape punishment and his family is well off so perhaps, as was the case in the Jessica Lal and Priyadrashini Matoo case, justice may not prevail without strong public pressure. Already the Press is making every effort to project Irfan as a "child" whose "right" were violated by the Hindi Teacher when she pulled him up for not studying. In Deccan Chronicle there is even an article saying that his future must be protected even after the crime the he has done. Who is to speak for the 2 young daughters who have lost their mother. Sometimes I feel that criminals cannot be brought to justice, JUSTICE must be brought to them. I wrote this line in an earlier blog on S P S Rathore IPS. I hope Irfan is punished because the crime he committed in public and the pre meditated manner in which he perpetrated the crime bespeak of a "hate crime'. Given the sad state of affairs in India, I would not be surprised if the Press rants and raves and when the furoe dies down, Irfan quietly walks the street again. Tamil Nadu has a history of letting off well connected criminals. I remember that John Davis, the man who liked some Ponarrasu, came out of prison waving a Bible.

There is need to rethink the manner in which Teachers are treated in India. School/ College and University teaching require special skills and little effort is made to impart pedagogic skills. I do not mean to suggest that the run of the mill B. Ed degrees offered by B Ed institutions are the solution. Jiddu Krisnamurti is perhaps the only Philosopher in India who has spent a lifetime thinking about this very issue. Teachers need to be sensitized to the Jiddu Krinamurhy methods of teaching. Classroom teaching must be liberating not oppressive and this can be achievedvd only when the teachers are trained in teaching minus the competitive spirit. Unfortunately, in most schools the number of students in the class exceed the optimum strenght of 30 and therefore smaller classes is the need of the hour. I must say that teenagers are under formed personalities and their self worth and image is easily upset and hence they need to be handled firmly but with tact. I studied in Don Bosco, Egmore several decades back and I remember with horror a Hindi teacher who used to send notes to the parents for every little thing. Another Teacher called Subba Rao who was always dressed in white pyjama and jibba was just the opposite and I learned Hindi quite well from him. I am not blaming anyone, but just pleading for more wholesome methods of teaching.

Irfan's family seems to be one of the upwardly mobile families that has become wealth over the past few years and hence it has the "craze" for "convent" education. Families undermine traditional values by encouraging instant gratification. Instead of spending time with the boy and encouraging him in his studies, the parents have apparently spoiled him by giving him a daily pocket money of Rs 100. Parents must share the blame for this crime as they have failed in the primary responsibility of bringing up a well behaved and well mannered child. I think parents who allow their children all kinds of freedom must treat this case as a wake up call.

Language teaching is an art and we must be making effort to teach languages effectively. In USA, for instance in 2 semester a student lears to read, write and to some extent speak an Indian language. Of course, I am talking about University students but I want to say that there are mewthods availble for efficient mens of language acquisition and we need to introspect seriously over them. It would be a pity if the crime of Irfan and the death of Ms Uma Masevari is forgotten.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Horrors of the Norwegian Child Protection Service

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books
Norway is in the news all for the wrong reasons. First it was the news of the horrific massacre of 76 young people committed by the Christian fundamentalist. The world has neither forgotten nor forgive Norway for the financial and diplomatic support extended to sundry terrorist groups all over the world in the name of identity politics. And now comes the screaming headlines about the "Child Protection Service". I think Norway is guilty of two basic infractions of the European charter. First, it has violated the principle that children have a right to develop their identity and the primary source of that are the parents. Second, child care is a sensitive issue and there are vast cultural differences in the way in which child care is delivered in different parts of the world. Norway's definition of child welfare is far different that the notions of child welfare in other parts of the world. As long as there is no evidence of outright violence against the child or gross neglect, the state does not have the Right to interfere.
The Norwegian Child Support Service seems to be targeting only non Nordic i.e specifically non white, Asian, Turkish and Indian parents. It is well known that the demographic profile of all Scandinavian countries is changing and that the immigrant population is rapidly increasing. Is this the reason why non-White parents are being targeted in Norway. The integrity of family life is being deliberately undermined by the Child Support Service, when children are forcibly removed from the protection and care of their parents. Rich parents are seldom harassed by the CPS.
The CPS hands over the children to foster parents who are paid 40,000 euros per year for the upkeep of the ward under their "care". Many Norwegians have taken to living off this money and some of the foster parents have even been found guilty of using the children for child pornography for which there is a huge market in Scandanavian Europe. The allocation for the children farmed out to foster parents has resulted in the biggest growth industry of Norwat: the Child Protection Industry. I find the attitude that children are the property of the state highly repulsive and smacks of fascism and Norway is well known in history for playing host to various right wing ideologies.
The case which was highlighted in the Indian press was particularly distirbing. The 2 children of the Bhattacharya couple were removed because they did not have "appropriate toys" and because the mother fed the children by "hand". Wjhat is the Norwegian definition of "appropriate toy" and are not toys also culture specific. In India children sleep along with their parents almost until they leave home to get married. Does that constitute "child abuse". The worst part of this horrible system is that there is no appeal against the arbitrary and heartless system. The Bhattacharya couple had to seek the intervention of the Indian Government at the highest level in order to get their children back and as a "face saving " measure the uncle of the children will be given custody. In one notorious case a boy who was given to a foster parent arranged by the CPS has accused his "father; of exually abusing him and other girls under mhis care. Now the courts are trying this case in Oslo.
I think Norway if it has to be treated as a civilised country needs to respect the right of children to their identity and chilhood. The Gestapo mind set so strong in the CPS cannot be allowed to dictate such matters.

Monday, January 23, 2012

SALMAN RUSHDIE AND THE MANUFACTURED CONTROVERSY IN JAIPUR

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books.
Indian controversies have a surreal quality about them. In almost all major public debates involving "cultural" issues the same suspects dance around in the arena. Shoba De, Javed Akthar, Dipankar Gupta and we can round a few more of the ususal suspects. M F Hussain's right to aristic freedom in not questioned by anyone, but surely that right does not include the right to insult "hindu dods and goddesses". The so called liberals and secularists were out in strength defending the "right" of Hussain to cast scorn on hindu icons but they are strangely silent when Salman Rushdie's artistic and literary freedom is concerned. In other words Indian secularism can be constructed as a right of the citizen to insult one religion but does not include the right to crtique any other. In fact the Salman Rushdie Affair has once again drawn attention to the absolute hypocracy that exists in India.
Personally speaking I feel that there is no difference between the M F Hussain Controversy and the one over Salman Rushdie: both of then interpretted artistic freedom to mean the right to attack religion, Rushdie chose to target his own and Hussain chose to denigrate Hindu religion and therfore both stand on the same footing. The Congress Party, facing as it does a tough fight in Uttar Pradsh chose to side with the Deoband School and decided to somehow ensure that Salman Rushdie does not visit India during the Jaipur Literary Festival. It created a non- esistent SIMI plot to frighten Salman Rushdie from not attending. It is also likely that the whole sordid affair was created in order to hype the Jaipur Literary Festival and bestow international notoriety on it by bringing in Salman Rushdie. Western nations which speak of "freedom of expression: have demonstrated their commitment to this ideal by the way inwhich Julian Assange,the founder of Wikileaks was perscecuted by the ruling establishment.
There is no need to panic over the future of freedom in India for the simple reason Indians do not read and consequently do not think and hence there is no possibility of freedom in India losing its sheen. The Indian middle class, a parasitical and venal class that it is, just does not read, write or think and therfore there is no real threat to freedom of expression. Only when the written word becomes subversive will there be a threat to freedom of expression. Indian writers adopt the safe option of either taking the stance of unrealistic radicalism like Roy or resort to magic realism like Rushdie and there can be nothing subversive in either. So there is really no threat to freedom in India.
Only when writers start articulating the problems of the people and infuse them with the desire to change and make them aware of the reality of their social and political existence will the Indian state resort to punitive measures. Domesticated radicals do not pose nay real threat and Rushdie can ignite street protests but no change is possible.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

UTTAR PRADESH PRADESH ELECTIONS; BAHU'S ANALYSIS

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books.

THe chattering class has found a bew topic to while away the time: the upcoming UP and 4 other state elections. The Congress Party is starting down the barrel of absolute defeat as it is unable to create even the semblance of fight against the other major players. The induction of Priyanka Vadra into the campaign shows that Dynasty obsessed fascism in the Congress is alive, well and has lulled that stupid party into thinking that by flounting a pretty face they can get back the base which was lost. Even the UP electorate has woken up to the fact that the Congress is concerned only about the survival of the Dynasty and nothing else. Priyanka will swing a few voted in the depripit pocket boroughs of the Congress, Amethi and Rae Berelly, and her presence will have zero impact. The Congress does not have a social base for itself in UP as the Upper caste Rajputs are with the Samajvadi Pary and the Dalits are with The Samajvadi Party has started its campaign by mobilising the so-called backward castes and the Muslim votebanks. Its emphasis on corruption and misgovernance will hardly find too many takers because Mulayam Singh Yadava's regime was notoriously goonda driven. There was no law and order during his tenure and people of UP remember his misgovernance and corruption. Further, like the Congress, Samajvadi is also turning into a dynastic fascist party with son Akilesh runnning the show like the yuvaraj. The BJP has started on a positive not and has more or less identified the key issues on whcih to fight the election. They have rightly cornered the Congress over the Muslim quota issue. They have highlighted the break down of the law and order and the rampant corruption in Mayawati's regime. It seems that the BJP will improve its tally but will fall short of a simple majority.

The election commission's order to cover the statues erected by Mayawati has been challenged by that clown Laloo Prasad Yadave by saying will they cover my "lantern". The statues were erected by wasting crores of people's money while the lanterns on the street are people's own private property and public money was not wasted on them. So there is need to have aperspective on these issues.

My analysis is that out of 403 seates, BJP will get aroung 98-100, BSP will get around 150-175, SP will get around 70-90 and smaller parties will divide the rs-est will Congress getting between 30-35 and Ajit Singh's Party getting 15- 20 seats in Western UP.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Political Turmoil in Pakistan: Military coup is in India's interest

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books
Statecraft is based on national interests not ideology and I wish the so-called political scientists who write about India's foreign policy understand and recognise this fact. More often than not, it is assumed that a democratic regime will help better Indo-Pakistani relations and this remains a myth of South Block. Let us not forget that the political parties in Pakistan whip up passions against "infidel" India for their political gains and it was Benazir Bhutto, as Prime Minister who instigated the "intifada" in KASHMIR. Somehow Indian policy makers have a tendency to forget recent history as they mouth platitude's about the return of democracy in Pakistan. The November 26th Attack also took place in atime of "democracy" in Pakistan. If possible India should work for the disintegration of Pakistan by encouraging the Pashtuns to merge with their ethnic group in Afghanistan and make the Durrand Line the basis of the 4th reorganization of the subcontinent. However, Indians neither have the intelligence nor the political leadership for undertaking such a task. Lord Curzon's vision for a secure India alone will make for a better policy.
The recent unrest in Pakistan stemming from the so-called memogate scandal spells disaster for Pakistan. Political turmoil has begun and the ethnic fault lines will get accentuated as time goes by. India should actively help in bringing down the civilian government as the military has a more pragmatic approach and is susceptible to US pressure. For starters, the Pakistani military establishment does not have any vested interest in stirring up sentiments against the infidels towards the east, and it knows that in a conventional war, even with the Chinese actively aiding Pakistan India will eventually emerge triumpahnt, not because the Indian Army is brave and well trained, but because India has more resources in terms of men and material.General Kayani, like President Parvez Mussaraf has not made a single provocative statement so far. The tottering regime of Zardari and Gelani will fall in a few days time and there will be a military government behind a civilian fascade. India should recognise and ensure that the peace process is further strengthened during this period. Military takeovers are good for India.